This week I am adding @DFFKoala’s model to my process of helping me find low-owned wide receivers in week 13 for DFS. As he (or anyone else with a model) will tell you, it is not something you can live or die by, but it is a helpful addition to the process. With his model, I look for receivers who have a negative fantasy point difference, which essentially means, to my understanding, target players who are performing below the mean where they should be expected to be. For only $1 a month you can have access to his model. The model also covers quarterbacks, running backs and tight ends as well.
DeSean has a -2.54 FPD (fantasy point difference) which is about as good as you can find. The Panthers are allowing 24% more fantasy points per game to wide receivers compared to the league average. In games with Winston, Jackson is getting 17% of the team’s targets at an aDOT of 18.7. DeSean getting those deep targets always keeps him in play.
Anderson is at a -2.93 FPD. He is getting 30% of the Jets air yards and has an aDOT of 17.2. Just like Jackson he always has big-play potential every week. Robby is getting 15% of the Jets targets, so the volume and boom potential is there.
Kelvin sees 31% of the Bills air yards and 17% of their total targets. He also has an aDOT of 17.4. I stress trying to find someone with a high aDOT- especially on FanDuel- since yards are worth a lot more when scoring is .5PPR opposed to full point PPR. When finding cheap receivers, it’s good to look for teams that do not have an established receiver corps. It is hard to predict what they will do, and who will get the work, but bad WR corps tend to be on bad teams, and bad teams have to throw the ball.
St. Brown is only in play if Cobb is out. St. Brown being nearly minimum priced with having Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback, plus a -2.20 FPD should be good enough to find a way to plug him in your lineups. Through the last five weeks, the Cardinals have allowed 11% more fantasy points to wide receivers compared to the average. With Adams likely drawing shadow coverage from Peterson, that opens up the field for St. Brown. St. Brown is cheaper than MVS and will likely be much lower owned, making him the GPP play between the two rookie receivers.
Stills gas a -2.40 FPD. He only sees 13% of Miami’s targets, but he leads the team in shares of air yards at 29% along with an aDOT of 17.3. Buffalo is not a friendly matchup, but I do believe defenses only matter when you can exploit a bad one. I do not expect Stills to draw coverage from White and all it takes is for him to burn someone once and he hits value.
This is my third straight week touting Samuel. He only saw two targets last week, but he played on 88% of snaps. Carolina’s offense is better without Funchess in it, and I believe Samuel passes the eye test (did you see that TD vs. DET?) As we all know matchups for wide receivers don’t get any better than The Buccaneers.
Cincy has been a bottom three defense the last five weeks based on fantasy points allowed per game compared to the average. Sanders sees 28% of the air yards and 23% of the targets for Denver. The Broncos have an implied total of 25, and if they score three touchdowns, I like the odds of Sanders getting at least one of those.
With Jackson starting, Snead has seen 42% of the Ravens targets. That is an elite volume level. He only has a 7.2 aDOT, but that is good to go with Jackson since he apparently likes throwing the short routes. Volume is critical for receiver production.
The Rams have an implied total of 32 and are facing the Lions who are giving up 26% more fantasy points to wide receivers compared to average. The Rams wide receivers average 74.6% of the teams passing yards which is good for first in the league. Reynolds is seeing 16% of the targets since he stepped up after Cooper Kupp went down with a season-ending injury.
Game Theory Plays: