Dynasty Football Factory

A Look at the Lines: NFL Week 13

One of the tools long known to the daily fantasy sports (DFS) community, but not often used by the season-long fantasy sports player, is how to use the Las Vegas gambling lines for fantasy. The point spread, or “line,” on sporting events can help you as a fantasy owner when it’s time to build a DFS lineup or set your weekly roster in season long. In short, you can look at a projected game total and point spread and determine the points expected to be scored in any given contest.

For example, if team A is a 10 point favorite over team B and the game total is 48, you can expect that team A will score 29, and team B will score 19. This is in no way an exact science, nor is it accurate 100% of the time, but it will give you a general idea of what to expect from teams on any given week. That same week, team C might be a 7 point favorite over team D with a game total of 37, which gives team C an implied point total of 22 while team D is expected to score only 15 points.

This is a very simplistic breakdown, but using these examples, we can see that team A has an implied point total of 29 points while team D is looking at 15 points. Using these examples, more often than not, it would benefit you to use players from team A rather than team D.

Last season, we touched on every game, but this year Rick KernsJames HanmoreSpencer Scoled, and myself will be providing you with a short breakdown of only our favorite plays of the week for gambling purposes. We’ll also give a breakdown of each team’s projected point total and the point total for each game as well. That should help give you a nice foundation to work from as you make your start/sit decisions for the week. Thank you and good luck.

 

RICK KERNS

(last week: 0-0/season: 10-4)

  • no picks this week

 

 

JAMES HANMORE

(week 11: 1-1/season: 6-9-1)

  • no picks this week

 

 

JOHN DI BARI

(week 11: 2-1-1, Thanksgiving 5-1/season: 22-18-2)

Los Angeles Rams -10 @ Detroit Lions

The Lions look to be free-falling, losing 4 of their last 5 games. On the other end of the spectrum, the Rams are coming off of a bye after beating the Chiefs in a Monday night shootout and looked poised to make a deep playoff run. Ten points seems like a lot on the road, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Rams cover as much as 21 in this one.

Buffalo Bills +4 @ Miami Dolphins

After a 3-0 start, the Dolphins have dropped 6 of their next 8, and the return of Ryan Tannehill has done them no favors. The Bills have taken some massive beating this season, but they’ve also been surprisingly game in a few contests as well. They’ve won 2 in a row and head into Miami with Josh Allen back under center. Do I think the Bills win outright? Hard to say, that’s scary. But, They should be able to hang within a field goal based on their defensive prowess alone.
Rams -10
Bills +4

 

SPENCER SCOLED

(week 11: 1-3, Thanksgiving 4-2/season: 22-26-2)

Indianapolis Colts -4.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags are in shambles, and the Colts are on the upswing. This Colts O-Line is for real and should give Luck time throw. I could see Ebron having another great game. Bortles’ replacement may have a randomly good game because, but I think Luck picks this defense apart.

Cleveland Browns +6 @ Houston Texans

I think the Texans are squeaking out these wins. Their defense is formidable, but Cleveland has turned a corner. Their culture has changed exponentially, and the Browns are fighting for Baker. I don’t think Houston can win by a touchdown.
Colts -4.5
Browns +6

 

 

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jdibari

Chicagoan living in Las Vegas. Fantasy Football writer & Director of In-Season Analysis for Dynasty Football Factory, blogger for USFantasy and contributor to TheFakeHockey. Member FSWA.

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