Dynasty Football Factory

Look at the Lines: NFL Week 10

One of the tools long known to the daily fantasy sports (DFS) community, but not often used by the season-long fantasy sports player, is how to use the Las Vegas gambling lines for fantasy. The point spread, or “line,” on sporting events can help you as a fantasy owner when it’s time to build a DFS lineup or set your weekly roster in season long. In short, you can look at a projected game total and point spread and determine the points expected to be scored in any given contest.

For example, if team A is a 10 point favorite over team B and the game total is 48, you can expect that team A will score 29, and team B will score 19. This is in no way an exact science, nor is it accurate 100% of the time, but it will give you a general idea of what to expect from teams on any given week. That same week, team C might be a 7 point favorite over team D with a game total of 37, which gives team C an implied point total of 22 while team D is expected to score only 15 points.

This is a very simplistic breakdown, but using these examples, we can see that team A has an implied point total of 29 points while team D is looking at 15 points. Using these examples, more often than not, it would benefit you to use players from team A rather than team D.

Last season, we touched on every game, but this year Rick KernsJames HanmoreSpencer Scoledand myself will be providing you with a short breakdown of only our favorite plays of the week for gambling purposes. We’ll also give a breakdown of each team’s projected point total and the point total for each game as well. That should help give you a nice foundation to work from as you make your start/sit decisions for the week. Thank you and good luck.

 

RICK KERNS

(last week: 0-0/season: 10-3)

After a week off and going 1-1 back in week 8 I now sit at 10-3. A little something different this week as I have three teams that I really like, so I’ll just put them in a 3-team teaser that pays +155.
Atlanta Falcons +2 @ Cleveland Browns
Falcons defense has been playing much better of late and against the struggling Browns that should continue. Way too much offense for the Browns to stop. Not much more needs to be said about this one.
New Orleans Saints +1.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals
This one would concern me a bit more if Green was playing but with him out the Bengals don’t have much in the way of receiving threats which is where you have to beat the Saints. Again Kamara and company get a pretty easy one done here.
New England Patriots -1 @ Tennessee Titans
Titans win games somehow, but not here. Michel will be back for the Pats and should see plenty of work in this one. Pats will look to bottle up their former teammate, Dion Lewis, as he’s been the only consistent threat on offense for the Titans. Pats handle this one with ease.
3-team, 6 point teaser of Falcons +2, Saints +1.5, Pats -1

 

JAMES HANMORE

(last week: 0-0/season: 5-8-1)

  • No picks this week

 

JOHN DI BARI

(last week: 3-0/season: 14-14-1)

Carolina Panthers @ Pittsburgh Steelers 52
If you follow me on Twitter, this will not come as a surprise to you: I hate Thursday Night Football. The short week tends to lead to teams playing it safe with minimal prep for their opponents. Sure, some weeks there are high scoring shootouts, but most of the time, these games are unwatchable. I can’t recall a TNF game with this high of a total, maybe ever, so I’m leaning towards history and taking the under.
Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers -9
The Pack, with Aaron Rodgers, laying sub-10, at home, with a temperature forecast in the low-30s at game time, hosting a Miami Dolphins team led by Brock Osweiler. What’s not to love? I thought this number was going to open closer to 13, maybe even 14, so seeing it at nine is a gift.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles -6.5
How dare the NFL make us sit through back-to-back weeks with both the Cowboys and 49ers in prime time, nationally televised games. Yuck. The ‘boys looked terrible facing the Titans on Monday Night Football, and the Eagles are coming off of the bye after beating the Jags in London two weeks ago. It’s a division game, and these tend to be closer scoring in nature, but with the extra week to prepare for the Eagles and Dallas on a shortened week, on the road, anything under 7 seems like a gimmie.
   

Panthers/Steelers under 52 

Packers -9   
Eagles -6.5

 

SPENCER SCOLED

(last week: 4-1/season: 15-19-2)

Carolina Panthers 50.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
I hate the hook on this spread, but Pittsburgh has just been solid. James Conner has been an absolute game-changer, and I think Pittsburgh keeps rolling. With that said, Carolina has been an offensive juggernaut as well. I give the edge to the home stadium, but this should be a shootout.
Atlanta Falcons -4 @ Cleveland Browns 51
I like a lot of home games this week, but Atlanta is clicking, and the Browns are still struggling on offense at times.
Despite being a stingy defense (as of Week 8: 3rd DVOA), the Browns have allowed 37, 33, 26, and 38 points in the last four weeks. Granted, they were against high flying offenses, but Atlanta is just as potent. The Falcons are a basement dweller in DVOA so Cleveland should score enough points to help the over, but nowhere near enough to keep up with Matt Ryan.
Steelers -3.5
Panthers/Steelers Over 50.5
Falcons -4
Browns/Falcons Over 51

PROJECTED TOTALS

In no way should this be your primary go to when making lineup decisions, but this can be a great tool to target sleepers for DFS and as tie-breaker when deciding between multiple players in season-long leagues. The games and teams in green should be strongly considered; the yellow also shows a favorable game script for fantasy. White is middle of the road. Orange games and teams have much less upside regarding scoring opportunities, while red should give you some concern.

TARGETS AND FADES

It looks to be an interesting week, to say the least. There are plenty of extremely high projected team totals this week. Five teams projected to score more than four touchdowns and seven (7!) games have totals over 50. On the other end of the spectrum, the Bills/Jets game has a total of only 36.5. That is the lowest total we’ve seen in some time- especially in the recently offensively skewed NFL. There should be tons of fantasy points out there this weekend. That leaves you little reason to look at anyone from a team projected under 21 points this week unless you’re trying to be contrarian.

 

 

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jdibari

Chicagoan living in Las Vegas. Fantasy Football writer & Director of In-Season Analysis for Dynasty Football Factory, blogger for USFantasy and contributor to TheFakeHockey. Member FSWA.

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