Now that he have reviewed the tiers and how they are broken down, it is time to see what it would look like when applied to draft ADP.Instead of breaking down every season, I have decided to review some of the more interesting years and how this could affect the drafts.
Instead of breaking down every season, I have decided to review some of the more interesting years and how this could affect the drafts.
In 2008, we saw one of the strongest RB draft classes in recent memory. Of the seven RBs that went in the 1st and 2nd round of the NFL Draft, only one didn’t achieve multiple top 20 seasons (Mendenhall didn’t have enough data to be included in the study).
Using my method, you may have decided to take a shot on players like Matt Forte or Ray Rice (Low Risk 1) over a player like Jonathan Stewart (moderate risk). Or, one of the more glaring wins, taking a shot on Jamaal Charles (Low Risk 1) versus taking a player like Kevin Smith (High Risk).
It was hard to go wrong with any of these top RBs, but keep in mind that Matt Forte, the sixth RB taken, was a Low Risk 1 player and tied for the most top 20 seasons.
2012 and 2013
Looking at these two years, there are some interesting players that stand out. In 2012, we saw a Low Risk 2 player, Lamar Miller, being the sixth RB taken off the board. Following my method, owners may have decided to pull the trigger on Miller over Pead and Hillman (maybe even Wilson) and seen long term success.
In 2013, Le’Veon Bell was the fourth RB taken off the board, which now seems like a crazy thought. Being a Low Risk 1 player, fantasy owners may have rethought taking Lacy, Ball, or Bernard over him. Using this method, owners would have been rewarded with one of the top dynasty assets and one of the best RBs in the NFL today.
2015 and 2016
Taking a look back at the past two seasons, using this method could have been a great tool for dynasty owners to use in preparation for their draft.
In 2015, we see one of the top dynasty assets in the game today (and a Low Risk 1) David Johnson going as the eigth RB off the board. Taking into consideration where this group fell in their respective tiers, one may have taken an earlier shot on DJ over the likes of Duke Johnson, Ameer Abdullah, or TJ Yeldon.
The 2016 class is far from being anything set in stone, but right off the bat, we see a player that may have fallen too far down the board according to this method. Jordan Howard (a Low Risk 2 candidate) was drafted as the 7th overall RB but wound up putting together a very good rookie season. Using this theory, owners may have been tempted into taking Howard over Perkins, Prosise, Booker, and Dixon.
2017 ADP (as of 4/24/2017)
Here we see how it would look when applied to the 2017 draft class. As you can see, a lot of Low Risk 2 players being taken late in drafts. These could be players that have huge reward payouts but cost you very little. We can see McCaffrey being the 3rd RB off the board, despite being a Low Risk 1 option. Also note, the other Low Risk 1 player in this draft, TJ Logan, is currently being taken as the 20th RB off the board.
As we all know, there is no perfect way to dissect these draft prospects as everyone has their own strategy. This method shouldn’t discount the value of watching tape or draft pedigree. This method can simply be another tool in your draft tool belt and lead you to greater success.