I am fortunate enough to roster Travis Kelce in one of my dynasty leagues. Every offseason I wrestle with the idea of trading him away while I can maximize the value. Every offseason I decide I’ll hold him for just one more year. Playing the age game in a dynasty league is difficult, so I decided to dive into the historical performance of players age 30 or older at the tight end position. Here’s what I found.
The Sample
This is important to note. Our sample is skewed from the outset. When dealing with players in their age 30+ season, we’re dealing with players that were viewed as highly productive and thus given contracts to play well into their mid-to-late-30s. This means that the data is more predictive to the Travis Kelce and George Kittle’s of the world than the Mike Gesicki’s.
That’s not a knock on guys that aren’t insanely productive receivers. There are still multiple players like Ben Watson and Marcedes Lewis that appear on this list that played well into their 30s despite having little to no fantasy impact.
To set some sort of limit, I only went back as far as 2012. This gave me the stars like Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates while balancing the numbers with more recent performances. Full disclosure: I may have left some fringe players out along the way, but I think the sample I came up with is at least representative.
The Data
It shouldn’t be surprising that 13 of the top 20 fantasy performers aged 30 or older were either 30 or 31. It also shouldn’t surprise you that of the seven outlier seasons, six of them came from either Gonzalez or Gates. Immediately, you’re able to notice that there is a clear drop-off in performance from the 31 to 32 season.
Over the last five seasons, a finish with about 145 total PPR points would qualify as a TE1 performance. In some seasons, it takes much less. Nearly half (48.8%) of the seasons collected fell into the top 12. There is, however, a difference between having a tight end finish in the top 12 and having a season you’re happy with as a manager. Only 18.6% of the seasons collected ended with year-end totals of 200 PPR points or more.
The best predictor of fantasy success had nothing to do with age. It came down to volume. I know, hard to believe. The guys that get the most targets have the opportunity to score the most points. In fact, any player with 83 targets or more in a season, finished as a TE1. What does this mean?
Conclusions
While the connection between targets and points is clear, the connection between targets and age is less obvious. While there does seem to be a trend between age and targets, it isn’t causative, meaning one doesn’t directly affect the other. Age has nothing to do with the number of targets a player is getting as made obvious by three of the four players at age 37 receiving 79 or more targets.
Looking at the individual players’ situation and what their teams decided to do with them is more predictive than age. The drop-off typically came when their team had a younger player break-out or changed their scheme and asked the older TE to do more blocking. In some cases, the drop-off never really came until they left the team.
The takeaway from all of this isn’t where top-tier TEs fall off the cliff, it’s that many TEs don’t play into their late 30s. Over half of the players analyzed retired after their age 35 seasons. Like I said earlier, most TEs tend to drop-off by after age 31, it’s the top-tier guys that stick around longer.
What does this mean for Travis Kelce?
Travis Kelce isn’t going to just fall off a cliff. In the last six years, he has gotten over 100 targets each year. The only true comparisons for Kelce in terms of volume are Gonzalez and Jason Witten. Even Gates doesn’t compare because he was simply efficient on less volume. Gonzalez was TE 2 the year he retired at age 37. From 33 on, Witten wasn’t a top-tier TE, but he was still putting up TE1 seasons until he left the Cowboys for Oakland. What I’m saying is this: Travis Kelce has, at minimum, three more years of elite production. Even after that, he may never fall out of the TE1 discussion.
So should you move him? I wouldn’t. While you’re going to still likely get maximum value on Kelce if you were to trade him now, I don’t think it’s worth it. Kelce scored 136 more points than the TE 3 last season. Like I’ve already mentioned, a TE1 can score as little as 145 PPR points. Just because you’re replacing Kelce with another guy that is a TE1 doesn’t mean you aren’t losing valuable points. If you’re not a contender, sure, move him now before the age argument starts to gain any more traction. If you think you have a legitimate chance at the title in the next couple of years, I don’t think the return will be worth it.
There are unknowns. Kelce could retire when his brother, who’s two years older than him, does. Kelce could retire young like Andrew Luck or Luke Kuechly (even though he’s already older than both). However, I don’t think any of that will happen as long as he’s tied to Patrick Mahomes and competing for Super Bowls. Travis Kelce is a generational talent that you can hitch your wagon to and ride off into the sunset.
Thanks for reading! If you liked this, check out more of my work at DFF, and be sure to follow me on Twitter @fantasyonefive for all things fantasy football. Looking for more dynasty content? Be sure to subscribe to Dynasty Football Factory. Click here for a 12-month DFF Membership. You’ll gain access to outstanding Dynasty, Devy, IDP, and Redraft content.
