Sixty-eight yards. That was all that separated Tom Brady from becoming the NFL’s all-time passing yards leader in Week 4. Brady surpassed Drew Brees with ease, taking hold of the record halfway through the first quarter. No one has more storied wins in Foxborough than Brady. After 20 years of dominance, Brady breaking the record is no surprise. Doing it against his former Patriots team and longtime coach Bill Belichick in a Buccaneers jersey seems surreal. With the record in the rearview, let’s look at the current state of the Tampa Bay franchise from a fantasy perspective.
Tom Brady
The greatest quarterback to ever play the game had an anti-climatic performance on a historic day. He walked away with a win and another accolade for his hall of fame resume. None of that mattered to his fantasy managers. Brady failed to throw for a touchdown against his former team. His 11.1 fantasy points ranked 28th amongst quarterbacks in Week 4. He completed just 51.1% of his passes, going 22/43 for 269 yards.
Ranked as QB4 overall on the season, this poor performance was likely an outlier. Blame the lack of production on the weather or the matchup against a familiar foe in Belichick.
Tampa Bay is averaging 43 pass attempts per game in 2021, tops in the NFL. Brady somehow shows no signs of decline at 44 and should continue to produce at a QB1 level in 2021.
Rob Gronkowski
Gronk was a disappointing absentee on the active roster for his reunion to Foxborough. Gronk was sidelined during the contest while healing from multiple cracked ribs. You can read Zach Pavlichek’s (PT, DPT) complete reaction on the injury here: Gronk Injury Reaction – Dynasty Football Factory.
He may not have been on the field for Brady’s mid-game mini ceremony, but he has contributed his fair share to this colossal passing yards total. During their tenures together for the Patriots and the Buccaneers, Gronk has accounted for 8,657 of Brady’s 80,560 career passing yards, or for the analytically minded, 10.7%. From 2010 (Gronk’s draft year) to now, those yards have made up 17.7% of Brady’s total passing yards, more than any pass catcher in that timeframe. (Joint Data collected in collaboration with Santiago Casanova (@BRotoFFCasanova) / Twitter and Taren Caravella (@TarenCaravella) / Twitter)
Gronk had a vintage start to 2021. The bruising fan favorite has 16 receptions for 184 yards and four touchdowns in just ten quarters of football played. He leads the Buccaneers in receiving touchdowns despite missing their previous contest. His 19.5 PPR points per game lead all tight ends in the NFL.
Tampa Bay’s offense has a lot of mouths to feed. Brady’s nepotism coupled with Gronk’s resurgence should leave enough on the plate for the duo to feast all season.
Mike Evans
Mike Evans is the man credited with the reception that pushed Brady past the precipice. Evans received a 23-yard strike over the middle from Brady in the first quarter to give the quarterback the record. Evans would finish the night with a team-high in targets (12) with seven receptions for 75 receiving yards. This game marks his third straight with 75 receiving yards or more.
Evans is leading Tampa Bay in targets (37) and receptions (23) in 2021. His 163 routes are second in the NFL this season. Ranked as WR17 in PPR scoring, Evans’ elite volume has not translated into elite production. A versatile red zone threat, Evans has only caught two touchdowns in four games. Touchdown production should even out for Evans in the coming weeks, especially with Gronk sidelined.
Antonio Brown
There must be something in the water in Tampa Bay because the Buccaneers have brought Antonio Brown’s NFL career back to life. Brown recorded 13.3 fantasy points in PPR scoring against the Patriots in his first game back after missing Week 3 due to covid protocol. Despite playing only 51% of the offensive snaps in Week 4, Brown received 11 targets with seven receptions for 63 yards.
Brown is third on the depth chart behind Godwin and Evans. His route participation and snap percentages reflect a similar sentiment. He is a viable weekly flex option with boom potential when he finds the end zone. I do not expect Brown to overtake either of the options mentioned above in usage, although his fantasy production could surpass both on any given Sunday.
Chris Godwin
Chris Godwin was on the field for 94% of the Buccaneers’ offensive snaps in Week 4. His snap percentages may have been a team-high for the receiving corps, but the box score tells a different tale. Godwin had just 8.5 PPR fantasy points against the Patriots. He was targeted only five times, recording three receptions for 55 yards in the Buccaneers victory.
Through four games, Godwin has led all Buccaneers receivers in snap percentage and ranks ahead of Evans at first in the NFL in routes (172), per playerprofiler.com. Prior to this contest, Godwin had posted three consecutive games with 16.0 PPR fantasy points or higher.
Where Evans excels in the red zone, Godwin excels everywhere else. He is beginning to surpass his veteran teammate as the alpha receiver in Bruce Airians’ air raid offense. Godwin is ranked as WR14 in 2021. Leading the Buccaneers with 296 receiving yards has all projections pointing towards a career year for Godwin.
Leonard Fournette
The highest scoring Buccaneer of the day in fantasy came from an unexpected source. Fournette topped all players in the contest with 16.8 PPR fantasy points. Fournette saw his highest snap percentage of the season in Week 4 with 82%. His overall production was also a season-high. Fournette rushed for 91 yards on 20 carries and added three receptions for 47 yards through the air.
Fournette has yet to find the end zone this season but is currently ranked as RB28. His reliability on passing downs has vaulted him ahead of Ronald Jones as a three-down back for the Buccaneers. Fournette’s fantasy production should climb into the mid-range RB2 tier with Jones in the doghouse.
Ronald Jones
Only one player can boast a touchdown for the Buccaneers in Brady’s record-setting game. Ronald Jones was barely on the field in Week 4 but managed a crucial score in a tight matchup. Jones had just six carries for 25 on a 17% snap share. He received no targets on Brady’s 43 pass attempts
A quiet, yet damning, narrative arose for Ronald Jones in this contest. Overshadowed by his score, Jones’ role in the offense has diminished. Jones has now seen back-to-back games with less than 20% of the offensive snaps. Rushing volume is severely limited for Jones with the Buccaneers leading the NFL in pass attempts. With Fournette playing the role of the primary pass-catching back, Jones is left in the shadows. It would take a significant change in coaching philosophy for Jones’ return to relevance.
Cameron Brate
An appealing streamer in most formats, Cameron Brate has been filling in at tight end during Gronk’s absence. Brate finished the game with six targets but managed only two receptions for 29 yards. Brate has received five and six targets in his past two games.
Brate’s volume and production moving forward is assumed, not guaranteed. Gronkowski’s injury coincided with the return of Antonio Brown. Brate is sure to see his field time increase in the coming weeks, but there are more than a few options that can carry Gronk’s usage in the meantime. Brate is merely a spot-start replacement in fantasy until Gronk returns.
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