Your portfolio of dynasty teams is like a collection of assets. Like any asset, their value will appreciate and depreciate. The key to dynasty success, similar to managing any asset portfolio, is selling when the assets are overvalued and buying when they are undervalued. By taking advantage of inefficiencies in the dynasty trade market, you can get the edge on your league mates and build a perennial contender.
In this two-part series, I will examine 10 different players using the MFL ADP – 5 inside the top 100 ADP who I believe are overvalued, and 5 outside the top 100 ADP who are being undervalued.
The five players listed below, are players who I have identified as having a sell high opportunity. I am not suggesting that any of the players are #notgood, but as dynasty players, you are doing yourselves a disservice if you do not try and maximize the value of your assets.
Kamara is incredible. Last season’s effort was simply breathtaking, and he was a ton of fun to watch on Sundays (or 4 am on Monday morning in Australia, and it was totally worth waking up for). His rookie season was historic, as he finished as the RB3 and number 4 player overall in PPR scoring. He posted an incredible 6.07 yards per carry (YPC) which is 4th overall in a single season since 1970 on at 100 carries (per Pro Football Reference), ending with 120 carries for the season. He also produced 10.2 yards per reception (YPR) on 81 catches. This tweet from Scott Barrett sums it up nicely:
Since the NFL merger (1970) there have been 2,173 instances of a running back totaling at least 100 carries in a single season. Of those seasons, Alvin Kamara’s 2017 season ranks best in fantasy points per touch and second-best in yards per touch. pic.twitter.com/qMh2W2BK1B
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) February 12, 2018
It’s unlikely that we will ever witness a season from Kamara like we did in 2017. Whilst he might see more volume now that Mark Ingram is suspended, it presents an even greater opportunity to pivot to another elite fantasy option with a consistent production profile. 2017 was a true outlier season from an efficiency standpoint. It would be foolish to expect Kamara to replicate such gaudy numbers. There is also the expected positive regression of Drew Brees, who threw for the fewest yards and touchdowns in his 12 seasons with the Saints last year.
Trading Kamara right now is like being handed a blank check. A check that you can use to go after workhorse backs like Ezekiel Elliot and Todd Gurley, or cornerstone WRs like DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, or Antonio Brown.
Kelce is now the consensus dynasty TE1 after two consecutive seasons atop the TE scoring charts. There’s no doubt that Kelce is an exceptionally talented player, but his fantasy success can at least be partly attributed to the penchant of Alex Smith to throw to the TE. Over the past two seasons, Kansas City led the NFL with a total of 31% of its passes going to the TE position (courtesy of Sharp Football Stats).
Now things have changed in KC. Alex Smith has moved on, and Patrick Mahomes is starting under center. Free-agent WR Sammy Watkins signed a 3year $48million contract with $30million guaranteed (per Spotrac). He isn’t being paid that much to be just a deep threat – and Andy Reid has been impressed with him so far. Even Kareem Hunt is working on his pass catching skills, hoping to improve on his 53 catches in 2017.
Patrick Mahomes will have one of the best skill position groups in the NFL at his disposal, which will be great for his fantasy outlook. But with that many mouths to feed, I would be trying to sell Kelce at the peak of his value.
Deshaun Watson burst onto the scene in 2017 and produced one of the most electrifying stretches of QB play in recent memory. From his first start in week 2, until his last game of the season in week 8, Watson averaged 26.5 fantasy points per game and scored the most total points over that span despite the Texans bye week in week 7. Using the Rotoviz Game Splits app, we can see that Watson averaged 3 passing TDs and .33 rushing TDs per game over that period. That is equal to 48 passing and 5 rushing TDs when extrapolated to 16 games. That would be tied for 4th all-time with Dan Marino.
Per the most recent MFL ADP, he is going as the 2nd QB off the board despite only making 6 NFL starts.
His sample size isn’t the only question mark in my eyes. Per Sports Injury Predictor, Watson has torn both of his ACLs in a three-year span. For a QB whose success has been attributable, in part, to his mobility, a history of knee injuries is not optimal.
Watson is one of the most hyped up players heading into 2018. If you were smart/lucky enough to draft him as a rookie, you can move on from him at a huge profit despite the fact he missed half of his rookie season through injury.
Another QB whose ADP is propped up on a small sample size (and his good looks) is Jimmy G. The new 49ers QB took over from the train wreck that was Brian Hoyer and C.J. Beathard to close out the rest of the season undefeated. His elevated ADP is in part to some stellar play on the field, as well as the anticipation that Kyle Shanahan will have a transformative effect on the QB.
Garoppolo is being taken ahead of QBs such as Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, and Matt Stafford and people are willing to trade their first born child to get a piece of him – especially in 2QB and Superflex leagues. You can pivot to another QB with a proven and consistent top 12 production history, as well as another asset for your roster.
Jordan Howard is a two-down back. Pass catching is about as natural to him as basketball awareness is to J.R. Smith. This tweet from Rotoworld’s Evan Silva sums up the situation pretty nicely:
#Bears Jordan Howard has the most dropped passes of any RB in NFL last 2 years, went from 5.21 YPC to 4.07 last season, and finished 35th/47 RBs in Success Rate. Reached 80 yards from scrimmage in just 5/16 games last year.
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) May 31, 2018
The Bears know this and Matt Nagy has said Howard’s usage will be on a game-specific basis. Should the Bears fall behind and be forced to throw, Tarik Cohen (a much cheaper option. Hint Hint) is expected to be featured in the offense. Howard was ‘game-scripted’ out of multiple games last year, finishing with under 5 PPR points in 4/16 weeks and less than 8 PPR points in 7/16 weeks. That’s just unacceptable for someone who is being drafted as a top 15 running back. Sell high on Howard while you still can.
Let me know if you’re selling any of these players on Twitter, and who you’re selling them for! Find me at @FF_DownUnder.
All fantasy data in this article comes from FF Statistics. Go check the site out.