A rookie rewind is a way of gauging the value change of rookies from pre-season to post-season. It not only discusses the value change but also examines why the value changed. All of the tight-end value data comes from KeepTradeCut, as it crowdsources information in real-time. Many of the statistics are sourced from ProFootballFocus (PFF).
Definition list:
- Route Participation – The percentage of passing snaps while on the field where the tight end runs a route.
- Average Depth of Target (ADoT) – The average depth of a tight end per target.
- Yards after the Catch per Reception (YAC/R) – The number of yards a tight end gains after the catch per reception.
- Yards per Route Run (YPRR) – An efficiency metric that takes a tight end’s total yardage and divides it into the total number of routes run.
- Targets per Route Run (sometimes known as target rate) (TPRR) – A target rate metric that divides the total number of targets a receiver gets by the total number of routes run.
- Pass Block Grade – PFF’s score of how well the tight-end has blocked throughout the season.
Pre-Season Ranks
There was a consensus top four to this tight end class and they were Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF), Sam LaPorta (TE – DET), Michael Mayer (TE – LV), and Luke Musgrave (TE – GB). Their TE value data is from September 7th, the opening day of the regular season. These were my top five tight ends going into the season:
- Dalton Kincaid (TE5)
- Luke Musgrave (TE14)
- Sam Laporta (TE9)
- Michael Mayer (TE11)
- Tucker Kraft (TE36)
Pre-Season Overview
Dalton Kincaid landed in a fantastic scenario. Due to his skillset, he is a big slot receiver, and Josh Allen loves to target the receiver in the slot. There was still some competition, as Dawson Knox was still on the roster and had signed an extension during the previous season.
Luke Musgrave (as well as Tucker Kraft) landed in an unknown situation with Jordan Love at quarterback. There were no established receivers. The only prominent weapons were Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. The Packers had also drafted Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed.
Sam LaPorta landed in an excellent scenario with established weapons. The Lions had also drafted Jahmyr Gibbs. They signed David Montgomery and drafted Jameson Williams the previous year. The only concern was how much they would require LaPorta to block.
Michael Mayer landed in an excellent scenario—the only real offensive weapons were Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. There was concern about how good the offense could be with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback.
Current Outlook
(The target threshold for stats is 37+, so all ten TEs qualify; a total of 39 TEs qualify)
Dalton Kincaid started the season slow but picked up steam throughout the year. He had 96 targets, 76 receptions, and 732 yards. Those stats rank 8th in targets and receptions and 9th in yards. He had a route participation and pass blocking grade of 93.2% and 44.3, which ranks 4th and 38th. Kincaid had an ADoT and YAC/R of 7.3 and 4.2, which rank 19th and 27th, respectively. He had a YPRR and TPRR of 1.52 and 19.9%, ranking 13th.
These numbers are excellent, especially for a rookie tight end with another established tight end on the team. Given the route participation and pass blocking grade, the Bills are using him correctly. He is getting a lot of opportunities and is doing good with them. By ADP, Kincaid is currently the TE4 and is being taken late in the 5th round of Superflex startups.
Luke Musgrave played well before getting injured and missing six weeks. He had 48 targets, 37 receptions, and 404 yards. These stats rank 27th, 28th, and 26th. He had a route participation and pass blocking grade of 88.4% and 45.7, which ranks 21st and 37th. Musgrave has an ADoT and YAC/R of 7.6 and 5.4, which rank 13th and 9th, respectively. He has a YPRR and TPRR of 1.43 and 17%, ranking 17th and 24th, respectively.
These numbers are good, given the fact that he missed a significant portion of time. Once again, the team is using him correctly according to the route participation and blocking grade. With the high ADoT and YAC/R, he is athletically getting targets downfield and moving excellently after the catch. By ADP, Musgrave is TE14 and is being taken in the middle of the 10th round of Superflex startups.
Sam LaPorta had one of the best rookie tight-end seasons in recent years—near the same level as Kyle Pitts’ in 2021. He had 121 targets, 89 receptions, and 903 yards. Those stats rank 5th, 4th, and 6th. He had a route participation and blocking grade of 87.3% and 56.7. Those rank 25th and 30th. LaPorta had an ADoT and YAC/R of 7.3 and 4.1, which rank 18th and 29th, respectively. He had a YPRR and TPRR of 1.7 and 22.8%, which ranked 7th and 5th.
Given LaPorta’s route participation, he squashed my concerns about the Lions asking him to block too much. All of these stats are top-of-the-line, not just for rookie tight ends. The only stat that leaves a bit to be desired is YAC/R, but that is not a concern given his production. By ADP, LaPorta is currently TE1 and is being taken late in the second round of Superflex startups.
Michael Mayer thrived even with Aidan O’Connell starting most of the season. He had 37 targets, 27 receptions, and 304 yards. These stats rank 38th in targets and receptions; he also ranks 34th in yards. He had a route participation and pass blocking grade of 79.8% and 51.9, which rank 39th and 33rd. Mayer has an ADoT and YAC/R of 6.4 and 6.0, which ranks 27th and 6th. He also had a YPRR and TPRR of 1.11 and 13.6%, which rank 31st and 33rd, respectively.
Some of these stats could be more impressive. He is getting little opportunities and not doing much with the given opportunities. The main takeaway is that the YAC ability has translated and it usually takes three years for tight ends to breakout. By ADP, Mayer is currently the TE13 and is being taken early in the 10th round of Superflex startups.
Tucker Kraft played very well in Luke Musgrave’s six-week absence. He had 42 targets, 33 receptions, and 370 yards, which rank 32nd and 29th in both receptions and yards. He also had a route participation and pass blocking grade of 84.7% and 69.7. These stats rank 35th and 15th. Kraft had an ADoT and YAC/R of 5.1 and 7.4, which rank 37th and 2nd, respectively. He had a YPRR and TPRR of 1.2 and 13.6%, which ranks 27th and 32nd.
Given that he only got a lot of runs during six weeks, these stats are pretty impressive. He can hang his hat on the YAC ability and pass blocking grade. The pass-blocking grade is extremely impressive because it usually takes two to three years to become a consistent pass-blocker. This is important because it will get him more snaps. By ADP, Kraft is currently the TE19 and is being taken early in the 13th round of Superflex startups.
Summary
Sam LaPorta secured himself as my rookie TE1, but given some of these stats and my pre-season opinion, Kincaid is not far behind. Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft are even. Given his athleticism and potentially higher ceiling, I give a slight edge to Musgrave. After a slightly underwhelming rookie year, Mayer is my rookie TE5.
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