The smartest managers in fantasy football stay ahead of the curve and know the right times to exploit the market. There may be no player that has bolstered his dynasty value more than Nico Collins since Thanksgiving. The Texans have been in the national spotlight for the past four weeks as they made their playoff push and ended the Browns season in the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs. CJ Stroud was, of course, the main reason for this ascension into the national spotlight, but Nico Collins was perhaps the biggest benefactor in the dynasty space.
Don’t believe me? Below, I have posted the KTC tables for both positional and overall rankings for Nico Collins over the past six months. According to KTC, Collins rose from the dynasty WR51 to the dynasty WR11, improving his overall player stock in startups from #155 to #32. This is the type of trend line that I am looking for when evaluating individual players as a sellable asset during any given offseason.
My issue isn’t with Nico Collins improving his stock in general; rather, it took this long for him to do it. If 2023 were his rookie season and you showed me the charts above, I would be excited about the chance to keep him on my dynasty rosters or even consider buying him to improve some of my teams. The problem is that it wasn’t his rookie season. Instead, it was his third season in the league since being drafted by the Texans in 2021. Players who take this long to show us that they can produce at a high level tend to find themselves on my radar as less likely to continue that production in the long term.
College Resume
Before his NFL days, Collins was never truly a highly valued devy asset in college at the University of Michigan. He was viewed around the WR12 in his class in 2021 and was selected between the late second and early third rounds. You can see below the stats he accumulated during his time in college, none of which are anything to write home about.
He never managed to eclipse 40 receptions or 1,000 yards in any season, and his poor freshman year made him a Year 1 Zero by statistical standards. This metric is something put together by the crew over at Campus 2 Canton and is one that I like to draw on as I am evaluating collegiate players that could find themselves in the NFL someday. To keep it short, freshmen are tracked over eight categories and must hit at least one of these thresholds to have a statistically better chance of being a successful receiver in the NFL. “Successful,” in this case, is defined as a WR3 season or better (top 36 at the position). If a player does not hit any of the tracked thresholds, the likelihood of a WR3 season or better is less than 3%. Based on the table above (along with a review of some of the other thresholds), Nico Collins was a Year 1 Zero. With his 2023 season success, he now becomes only the fourth player to break the mold of this statistical theory, joining Tyreek Hill, Jarvis Landry, and D.K. Metcalf as the others to accomplish it. I will immediately make the argument that two of these players possess attributes that provide a clear advantage for them (Hill’s being his unmatched speed and Metcalf’s being his pure athleticism).
The Texans selected Collins with the 89th pick in the 2021 NFL draft and even traded up using three picks to do so. The decision to give up that type of capital for a questionable prospect was an interesting one, but at least he did possess some size and athleticism metrics that exhibited some potential. If nothing else, his raw speed, agility, burst, and athleticism were something to gamble on in hopes that he could improve more as a true wide receiver.
Tank or Nico?
We can argue that Collins never truly had phenomenal quarterback play until this year. The list of guys throwing to him includes Shea Patterson, Wilton Speight, Davis Mills, Tyrod Taylor, Kyle Allen, and Jeff Driskel. This isn’t to provide him with an excuse, however, as we would expect general talent to prevail over situation or quarterback play at some point. He was blessed to be paired with CJ Stroud, the king-maker, this season, who was able to support both Nico Collins and Tank Dell as a rookie. If we take this a step further, we can see that Tank Dell was targeted more times (75) than Collins (73) for 177 more yards in the games they played together. Over the final four games that Tank Dell was healthy this year (arguably the four games where Dell started to show some consistency and grasp of the offense), he out-targeted Nico Collins 43 to 31 for 116 more receiving yards. Yes, it is a smaller sample size than ideal, but early signs point to a healthy Tank Dell being Stroud’s favorite target. In fact, after being selected by the Texans, Stroud requested Houston’s brass to also select Dell with a future pick.
Target Competition on the Horizon?
The other concern with Nico Collins is the potential for the Texans to bring in another receiver this offseason. They have been linked to three so far with varying degrees of confidence: Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, and now the betting favorites to land A.J. Brown should he leave Philadelphia. I am not one to believe the rumor mill when it comes to fantasy studs changing teams, as much of it is pure conjecture and hope from different analysts and insiders that their favorite fantasy players can end up in a preferred situation. What I do place some value in, however, is the smoke of different high-profile names being mentioned in the same breath as a single team. When there is smoke, we often find fire in these cases, and I am now on high alert for Houston to be in the market for a new WR1. Should this happen, the target share between all of the receiving options in Houston will be difficult to project. Even worse, if a big-bodied threat is signed or traded for, he will likely take away from red zone targets that Nico receives.
Conclusion
In summary, what do we have: a highly athletic receiver in a volatile receiver room who has underwhelmed for 5/6 years between college and the NFL and was elevated by a sensational rookie quarterback and late-season injury to a fellow wide receiver. The summary seems a bit drastic, but I lay it out this way to further make my point. If I can write this sentence about a receiver who currently finds himself as the overall WR11 by the community, it is a great time to take advantage of this price. We are more than likely seeing the fever pitch of Collins’ value, and it feels like a guarantee that his value never gets any higher (I would argue that his value will steadily fall over the next 2+ seasons to where it should be). Give me a much more stable asset with a proven track record of production or something in the mid-first round of this season’s rookie draft, and I am very content to sell Nico Collins at this time.
Thank you for reading; if you have any thoughts or questions and would like to discuss them, you can reach out to me on Twitter @Evan_Kerr_. #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
