The first week of the NFL season rarely goes according to plan. We spend so much time speculating about roles, depth charts, and market shares, but then the actual football begins and suddenly Zack Moss is a featured satellite back and Joe Burrow can’t stop throwing interceptions. We don’t want to overreact, but we do have to react. That’s where the Panic Meter comes in. I’ll take the most stress-inducing players from Week 1, break down their performance, and let you know–on a scale of 1 to 10–just how much you’re allowed to worry.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Week 1 Stats: 7 targets, 2 receptions, 19 yards
Panic Level: 0
There’s nothing to see here. Yes, it’s disappointing that Kyle Pitts managed just 19 yards in a game with 53 total points, but he tied for the team lead in targets with seven. Honestly, the bigger takeaway for Pitts is that Marcus Mariota looks competent and the Falcons’ offense could be better than many expected. Better days are ahead.
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
Week 1 Stats: 13/28, 164 passing yards, 0 TDs, 13 rushes, 54 rushing yards
Panic Level: 1
Trey Lance had a rough showing in Week 1, but I’m willing to give him a pass due to the incredibly poor field conditions in Chicago. If he struggles to this degree in Week 2, then I’ll re-evaluate. On a more positive note, Lance ran the ball a ton. His 13 rush attempts ranked second among all QBs in Week 1, which is exactly what his fantasy managers should be rooting for. If he can keep that up, the fantasy points will come.
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
Week 1 Stats: 4 targets, 0 receptions, 0 yards
Panic Level: 4
The Eagles scored 38 points on Sunday and DeVonta Smith scored exactly 0 points for your fantasy team. He tied with Dallas Goedert and Kenneth Gainwell for the second-most targets on the team, but he just couldn’t connect with Jalen Hurts. Meanwhile, A.J. Brown dominated the passing game with 13 targets. I assumed that DeVonta Smith would be volatile as a secondary receiver in a run-heavy offense, but perhaps the floor is lower than I thought. On the other hand, A.J. Brown won’t be seeing 40% of the targets every week, which means Smith should see more opportunities moving forward. With Brown operating as the clear alpha, Smith is going to be extremely volatile.
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Week 1 Stats: 1 target, 0 receptions, 0 yards
Panic Level: 5
There was a steady drumbeat for Cole Kmet all offseason, pushing his ADP up as high as the TE10 on some sites. He appeared to be the clear second option behind Darnell Mooney. In Week 1, however, he was surprisingly uninvolved. He was targeted on just 1 of Justin Fields’ 17 pass attempts and he ran a route on under 70% of dropbacks. Backup TE Ryan Griffin saw 2 targets. I’m not totally giving up on Kmet due to the poor field conditions and low passing volume, but I certainly have one eyebrow raised.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Week 1 Stats: 5 rushes, 49 yards, 5 targets, 3 receptions, 27 yards
Panic Level: 6
The Packers struggled mightily in this game, leading to low fantasy totals across the board. But my concern for Jones isn’t the offense, which will surely bounce back sooner or later, it’s the backfield split. Entering the season, Jones was expected to split rush attempts fairly evenly with A.J. Dillon while handling most of the receiving work. That did not come to fruition in Week 1. Instead, Dillon took more carries, saw more targets, and scored the team’s only rushing TD. I’m sure Aaron Jones will have some big weeks this season, but I can’t see him paying off his second-round ADP.
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 1 Stats: 4 rushes, 47 yards, 4 targets, 2 receptions, 18 yards
Panic Level: 7
I thought James Robinson would need some time to reacclimate after his late-season Achilles injury. Nope. He’s back, leading the team in carries, and splitting snaps evenly with Travis Etienne. If you drafted Etienne in the third round, it’s time to recalibrate your expectations. He will still have value as the third-down and two-minute drill receiving back, but he will not offer league-winning upside without a James Robinson injury.
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
Week 1 Stats: 3 rushes, 0 yards
Panic Level: 8
He must be hurt. He has to be hurt. That’s what I kept telling myself as I watched Darrell Henderson take carry after carry after carry for the Rams in the first game of the NFL season. Well, according to Sean McVay, Akers is not hurt, and the alternative is far bleaker: he’s just not good. Cam Akers’ underwhelming post-season production was easy to explain away. He returned too soon from the Achilles injury, the offensive line played poorly, and the opposing defenses were strong against the run. But now I think it’s fair to wonder if the injury has had some lingering effects. Akers will probably get more involved as the season progresses, but he’s not going to live up to his ADP.
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