The Dallas Cowboys are poised to become one of the league’s most explosive offenses in the 2020 NFL season. You might even say their offense will be magnificent (I will see myself out). Despite their middling .500 record, Dallas was one of the best offenses in the NFL last year. It finished 2nd in offensive Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), 4th in weighted DVOA per Football Outsiders, and 5th in points per game.
With this seeming embarrassment of riches on the offensive side of the ball, and Mike McCarthy taking over for Jason Garrett, I wanted to take a closer look at what fantasy players might expect from the Cowboys this season.
Dak Prescott
Whatever you think of Dak Prescott as an NFL quarterback and what he “deserves” to be paid when he ultimately signs his contract extension, it’s undeniable that he is an elite fantasy quarterback. The community consistently undervalues him. Dak failed to finish any of his four seasons outside of the top 10 at the position. This is a feat matched only by Russell Wilson.
- 2016 – QB6
- 2017 – QB10
- 2018 – QB10
- 2019 – QB2
Since coming into the NFL, Dak has produced despite being part of a team that is (overly) committed to establishing the run. Over the past four years, Dallas has run the ball 47% of the time in neutral game script situations. That is good for the eighth highest rate in the NFL. This rate increased to 54% of the time on first and second downs (8th in the NFL) and a whopping 61% of the time on all first downs (6th in the NFL). Warren Sharp has gone into great detail about the efficiency of calling pass plays on first down (you can read more here). As such, it seems evident that Dak has thrived despite Jason Garrett’s play-calling rather than being a beneficiary of it.
With the conservative shackles of Jason Garrett removed, Dak is poised for a launch into fantasy stardom in 2020. Along the way, he might make Jerry Jones regret not finalizing a new deal with him sooner. $35 million a year will probably seem conservative when it’s all said and done.
There are only three quarterbacks I would draft before Prescott in dynasty. Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray. All three are considered much sexier assets, with Mahomes and Lamar being drafted two rounds earlier based on the latest MFL ADP. Prescott is being drafted as the QB6. That price makes him my favorite cornerstone QB in Superflex leagues.
Amari Cooper
After a brief free agency flirtation with divisional rival Washington, Amari Cooper returns to Dallas in 2020 a rich man. Whilst his five-year deal is not quite as extravagant as the $100 million first reported, it still contains $40 million in guarantees over the first two years (per Over the Cap). Only Julio Jones will earn more cash in 2020, with Amari Cooper pocketing $20 million for his efforts this season.
Over the Cap
In 2022 he may hit the market again. At the age of 28, he will almost certainly earn another large payday. I am bullish on both his dynasty and redraft value despite the acquisition of CeeDee Lamb. The willingness to pay Amari such a large sum of money, whilst letting Byron Jones walk and using the franchise tag on Prescott is an indicator of how Dallas feels about his talents.
Cooper finished as the WR10 on the season. However, there some genuine concerns around his week-to-week consistency when looking at his output. Fortunately, there have not been many games since his trade to Dallas that Amari has not been regularly targeted. In his 25 games, he has seen fewer than five targets on just three occasions. Five targets is not a necessarily high threshold. Still, Cooper has been one of the most efficient receivers over the past two seasons.
Y/Tgt after removing games with OAK in 2018 is 9.82. Per Pro Football Reference
Despite the apparent lack of consistency, he still finished 11th in ESPN’s consistency ratings out of all wide receivers, just one spot below his cumulative point finish. Not bad for someone who can’t be trusted in your lineups. I believe that fading his talent and weekly ceiling based on such concerns is misguided.
He earned a 20.66% target share in 2019. I expect this to be his floor in 2020 so long as he is healthy after dealing with a myriad of lower-body injuries for the duration of the season. He may even become more efficient if the reports of increased snaps in the slot are to be believed. I’m firmly on the Amari Cooper train for 2020.
Michael Gallup
Michael Gallup showed flashes as a rookie, but he took a tremendous leap forward in his sophomore season. He earned a 19.6% target share of the passing offense, eclipsing 1,100 yards, and scoring six touchdowns in just 14 games (per Pro Football Reference).
Gallup represents a cheaper entry point into what I believe will be one of the league’s most dynamic offenses, especially if I have been unable to sway any misgivings you have about Amari Cooper. With the arrival of Lamb, many people had begun to bury their hopes for Michael Gallup – just like this idiot:
Fortunately, my lightning-fast Twitter fingers don’t make fantasy transaction decisions for me. I am using this opportunity to acquire more shares of Michael Gallup. We have already seen him earn a strong market share even with Amari Cooper on the field. I believe he can continue to do over the next few seasons. Perhaps Lamb and Gallup are the long term receiver duo in Dallas? Don’t wait until it’s too late to get in on the buy low dip, and miss out on this kind of talent.
CeeDee Lamb
It’s hard to believe that Dallas went into the draft with any real expectation of drafting Lamb. When a player of his caliber falls into your lap at pick 17, you thank the NFL and pull the trigger. Lamb was widely regarded as one of the top two talents in this year’s receiver class. This is due to an excellent production profile and body of work he put on film. You can check out DFF’s post-draft profile on Lamb here.
I’ve already seen Lamb slide in a handful of rookie drafts discussed on Twitter due to “landing spot concerns,” but I am very happy to get the discount on my WR1 in this class. If you’re banking on the first-year production from rookie receivers, you are likely to be disappointed anyway – they have a habit of failing to return on their ADP (you can read my research on this here).
Whilst CeeDee might not get the opportunity to be a standalone fantasy asset in 2020, he provides yet another weapon for Dak Prescott, particularly with his electric yards after catch ability.
https://twitter.com/PFF_Gordon/status/1255113173587419136?ref_src=twsrc%5EtfwIf your dynasty league starts to fade Lamb, make sure you take advantage.
Ezekiel Elliot
There isn’t much to say about Elliott as a fantasy asset that you don’t already know. Elite opportunity coupled with a huge team investment is a recipe for fantasy gold. His 2021 contract is fully guaranteed, and his 2022 salary will become fully guaranteed if he is on the roster on the 5th day of the 2021 league year (per Over the Cap) which will occur on approximately March 23rd, 2021.
Elliot should also benefit from the Cowboys keeping their talented receiving unit on the field.
Sharp Football Stats and NFL Next Gen Stats
With the talent of Cooper and Gallup, expect McCarthy to call run plays with at least two receivers in the personnel package a majority of the time. During the 2016 and 2017 seasons, 82% of the Packers run plays featured a minimum of two receivers on the field. From Weeks 1 to 12 in 2018, that increased to 88%. As a result, expect Elliott to continue to face fewer loaded boxes in 2020. This helps him maraud his way to another likely top-five fantasy finish and potential rushing title.
Tony Pollard
Whilst his standalone value is low, Pollard might be THE premiere handcuff in fantasy football. The offense should roll on should Zeke miss any time. In 2019, he led all running backs (minimum 100 touches) in elusive rating, forcing 26 missed tackles and 4.51 yards after contact (per PFF).
There is no need to worry about a downgrade to the offense when Zeke is taking a breather. He’s a must-have for any fantasy owner who rosters Zeke, and a high-leverage roster piece for those who don’t.
Blake Jarwin
#JarwinSZN might have slowed down a touch with the addition of CeeDee Lamb. Yet, he still represents a very attractive option at the tight end position. With the corpse of Jason Witten now in Las Vegas, 83 tight end targets have been vacated. Jarwin, buoyed with a new contract with over $9 million in guarantees will be the main beneficiary.
I don’t expect a net increase of those 83 targets for Jarwin. Though, it’s not unreasonable to project him for a 15% target share. Add an expected increase in red zone opportunities and touchdown upside into the mix. Now you have a strong case for a top-10 positional finish. Even Jason Witten managed to finish as the TE11 in 2019 despite only mustering 8.7 PPG!
Dak has targeted tight ends on 24% of his career dropbacks in the red zone. In 2019, he scaled it back to 20% (12 attempts). This is unsurprising. Witten was shoehorned onto the field by Jason Garrett for 75% of the team’s offensive snaps. Jarwin only played 38.7%, but both tight ends were targeted on approximately 9.5% of their snaps. Jarwin just did more with his opportunities.
Pro Football Reference
With a clear path to snaps and targets, Jarwin locks in as the Cowboys starting tight end in 2020. He’s a solid option in both redraft and dynasty formats.
The Offensive Line
Whilst the skill positions bring the flash and pizazz, they don’t get to soak up the limelight without the foundation laid by the line. Once again, we should expect the Cowboys offensive line to be one of the top units in the NFL. They return multi-year All-Pros Zack Martin and Tyron Smith, and the talented La’el Collins who signed a five-year extension last year.
Unfortunately, Center Travis Frederick, who battled back from a year-long absence to start 16 games in 2019, has retired. He was, however, unable to recapture the All-Pro form that he showed before his illness, grading out as the 15th ranked Center by PFF, and just 27th in pass protection. Frederick cited his lack of ability to play at an elite level as one of the reasons for walking away at just age 29. He will be replaced (again) by Joe Looney, who is more than capable according to offensive line connoisseur James Arthur.
This group will keep Prescott upright and give him time to find one of the many talented pass catchers at his disposal.
Mike McCarthy
Whilst most of the offensive parts return from 2019, including OC Kellen Moore, the addition of Mike McCarthy as Head Coach is another reason to be bullish on the Dallas offense in 2020. Over his final three years with the Packers, McCarthy was among the league leader in pass attempts in neutral game script situations, particularly on first down.
Over this time, McCarthy averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game or 602.88 attempts over a 16 game season. Dak attempted 596 passes in 2019. Based on past market share and vacated targets, I expect the following approximate target distribution.
Not only does McCarthy favor a pass-first offense, but his play-calling has also maintained aggression throughout all four downs. This chart found in the excellent Cowboys Stats Newsletter shows not only a proclivity to throw on first down and second down with at least five yards to go, but also a high rate of “going for it” on fourth down (at least relative to the rest of the league).
McCarthy’s pass-first principles, as well the addition and progression of talent on the offensive side of the ball, should help establish the Cowboys’ offense in the upper echelon of the NFL for the foreseeable future. I can’t wait to see what they can do.
Thanks for taking the time to read this breakdown of the Dallas offense. Be sure to let me know what you think on Twitter @FF_DownUnder!
