Jared Goff gets his long-awaited contract from the Detroit Lions. Goff signed a four-year, $212M contract including a $73M signing bonus with $170.6M guaranteed. This makes Goff the second-highest-paid player in the NFL, only to Joe Burrow (QB – CIN). In the words of Head Coach Dan Campbell, you’re good enough for Detriot Jared Goff, and they proved it monetarily. Goff led the Lions to their first NFC championship appearance since 1992 and narrowly lost the game to San Francisco, 34 to 31. While this is great for Lions fans and Jared Goff, this helps us figure out what to do with the Lions’ skill players in Dynasty.
Jared Goff
Let’s start with the QB himself. Jared Goff finished the season as the QB7 on the year (301 fantasy points) and QB13 in points per game (17.7 fantasy points) in four-point passing touchdown scoring. You made a profit if you drafted Goff before the 2023 season. Goff was once regarded as nothing more than a QB3 before joining Detroit and had a consensus value of next to zero. In last year’s offseason, Goff was drafted around the ninth round in 12-team Dynasty startups. With his recent success, he has jumped up to a fifth-round startup pick, and for good reason. He had a career-high in passing completions with 407 and had his best passing yards since 2019 with 4,575. Goff had not finished inside the top 10 at his position since 2018. He’s tied to OC Ben Johnson through at least the 2024 season, who declined head coaching positions to stay with the Lions, and weapons Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta. With his new contract security and elite weapons at his disposal, Goff remains the cheapest QB2 in Superflex formats and is still a massive buy at cost. I expect Goff to continue to be a contender for finishing in the top 12, if not higher. Before the contract, I was able to buy Goff for rookie pick 1.09, but I am still comfortable sending a pick as high as 1.06 as I have Goff ranked over both Drake Maye (QB – NE) and J.J. McCarthy (QB – MIN).
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Jared Goff is not the only Lion who earned a payday from Detroit in the offseason. Superstar WR Amon-Ra St. Brown received a four-year $120M extension with $35M guaranteed, and a $16.5M signing bonus. It’s clear that ARSB has a fantastic connection with Jared Goff, and being tied to him for the next four seasons solidifies his status as one of the elite Dynasty wide receivers. Unsurprisingly, he had his best season in 2023 alongside Goff. Amon-Ra posted career highs in receptions (119), receiving yards (1515), yards per target (9.24), yards per catch (12.73), and receiving touchdowns (10). In PPR scoring, ARSB scored 330.9 fantasy points (third at his position) and 20.7 fantasy points per game (fourth at his position). So far, his extension along with Goff’s has not changed his Dynasty startup ADP. Most recently, I selected him at the 2.03 spot in a 12-team league startup, which has been pretty typical for the better part of a year. Although ARSB outscored both Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) and Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) on a points-per-game basis, he still goes well after them in startup drafts due to his rookie draft capital alone. I expect him to continue on a path to elite fantasy scoring and think his best years are to come. I’m comfortable paying as high as the 1.01 rookie pick for him, but would like to see if I could trade the 1.02 for him as Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – AZ) has a very similar ADP, yet I have ARSB ranked higher.
Sam LaPorta
Not many expected tight end Sam LaPorta to break out the way he did his rookie season in 2023. LaPorta exploded out of the gate immediately scoring 239.3 fantasy points and finished first amongst tight ends with ease given that T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN) and Travis Kelce (TE – KC) missed two games with injuries. He scored 14.1 points per game (third) and climbed up to the consensus Dynasty TE1. Jared Goff was an integral part of LaPorta’s immediate breakout. In 2023, LaPorta was the fifth most targeted tight end (120) and was the only TE in the NFL to record 10 or more touchdown passes, with nine of those coming in the red zone. No other tight end had more than six touchdowns in 2023. It’s clear that Sam LaPorta is a key piece to this offense but it’s reassuring that the stats show he’s one of Jared Goff’s favorite targets nearing the end zone. LaPorta will also be on his rookie deal for three more seasons and I expect him to be the next-best tight end in the league, similar to the rise of Travis Kelce. LaPorta is hard to pry from managers in Dynasty, but I like him better than rookie Brock Bowers (TE – LV) due to his situation, so I’m willing to pay as high as the 1.05 rookie pick for him in non-tight end premium leagues. If your league is TEP, I would comfortably pay as high as the 1.03.
Jahmyr Gibbs
You wouldn’t think a running back would be affected by the signing of a QB, but in this case, Goff staying long-term in Detroit is beneficial to Jahmyr Gibbs as well. In 2022, Goff targeted a running back on 23.5% of his passes which was the third-highest in the NFL. In 2023, Goff had the sixth-most targets to running backs with 17% of the target share going to that position. One of the best parts of Jahmyr Gibbs’ fantasy game is his receiving ability in PPR scoring formats. Gibbs ended up with 68% of Detroit’s RB targets in 2023 with 71 targets and 52 receptions for 316 yards and a touchdown. In receiving alone, Gibbs scored an additional 89 fantasy points on the season. With rushing and receiving combined, Gibbs finished as the RB10 on the season with 242 fantasy points and was the eighth running back in points per game. This includes sharing snaps with teammate David Montgomery, who has an out in his contract after the 2024 season. If Montgomery moves on, Gibbs should explode with that type of target share. Even still, Gibbs is tied to Detroit on his rookie deal for at least three more seasons, and possibly four if the Lions decide to pick up his fifth-year option. Rightfully so, Gibbs is one of the most expensive RBs on the market and has an ADP of the late second round in Dynasty startups. With minimal RBs in the 2024 rookie class, I am comfortable paying as high as the 1.02 for Gibbs but I would prefer to pay the 1.03 if I could. Despite his high price, I expect Gibbs to be one of the elite Dynasty RBs for the next five-plus seasons.
Other pieces to this offense are fantasy-relevant, I just don’t think that Jared Goff being extended affects them individually. However, Goff is the motor to this offense and I want every piece that I can get, which includes WR Jameson Williams, who I think will have a bounce-back year and should easily be the second-most targeted WR on the team. Williams’ is getting praise and recognition in camp right now as one of the most improved players on the roster. Running back David Montgomery continues to be a buy while he is on this team as he rushed for over 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns despite Jahymr Gibbs’ breakout. He is one of the most undervalued RBs on the market and shocked some managers when he didn’t disappear when the Lions spent 1st round draft capital on his position.
It’s wheels up for the Detroit Lions in 2024, and I think every single skill player on this team is a buy at the current cost and will only continue to rise while being led by new franchise QB Jared Goff, and coached by HC Dan Campbell and OC Ben Johnson. The NFC should watch out for the Lions for years to come.
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