Daily Sports Factory

The DFS Tournament Playbook – Week 6

This week I will again be focusing on GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournament plays for Week 6 of the NFL main slate on Draftkings. I’ll go through multiple picks at each position at varying salaries, so that no matter how you are constructing a line-up this week one of these guys will slot right in.

We had a very average week across the board last week, saved by huge weeks from TJ Yeldon (26.2 points at $5.8k), Mohamed Sanu (17.3 points at $4k) and the Bengals D (22 points at $2.7k) in the majority of my line-ups.

Here are the plays this week that should get you into the green in Week 6.

Quarterback

Matt Ryan ($6,800 vs TB)

There are a lot of other QBs that are tempting to pay up for, like Big Ben at Cincinnati and Cousins at Arizona. Despite Ryan being the most expensive, I prefer him as he can be stacked cheaply with his WR2 Mohamed Sanu at $4,800 whereas you have to pay at least $7,300 for the WR2 of Cousins or Ben. Ryan has scored over 30 DK points in 3 of his 5 games so far, and the Buccs have allowed the 5th most points to QBs on the season despite having their bye already. They are averaging the most points given up per game to the position at 28.6. 

Andy Dalton ($6,300 vs PIT)

Dalton is quietly having a great season, he has thrown multiple touchdowns in all but one game this year, and has over 20 DK points in 3 of his 5 games, with a high of 28.78. The Steelers Defense has not been able to stop anybody this year, they have given up the 2nd most points to QBs through 5 games, and the 4th most points to WRs. The Stack with Tyler Boyd ($6,000) is hard to look past.

Jameis Winston ($5,800 @ ATL)

When it comes to targeting defenses in 2018 the first port of call is Atlanta. The Falcon have have given up the 4th most points to QBs so far this season, and have allowed 3 passing touchdowns in each of their last 4 games, averaging 329.5 passing yards allowed in that time. Winston has a wealth of receiving options with Mike Evans, Cameron Brate, Desean Jackson and Chris Godwin. I like the relatively cheap multi-stack with one of his favourite weapons Cameron Brate ($3,700), with O.J Howard missing this one with an injury, and stud WR Mike Evans ($7,500).

 

Running Back

Melvin Gordon ($8,200 @CLE)

As I’ve said every week so far, just play Melvin Gordon regardless of match-up, he is game script proof and is fast becoming slightly cheaper Todd Gurley. The Browns are a great matchup for him this week, we could easily see him finish as the RB1 in week 5.

Jordan Howard ($6,500 @MIA)

Talk about the perfect time to roll out Jordan Howard, he killed you if you started him in week 4, and then had a bye last week, so ownership should not be too high. The Dolphins have given up the 4th most fantasy points to running backs on the season and the Bears will be well prepared coming off their bye. The Bears showed in Week 4 that they can put up points and if they get up early in this one Howard should see a lot of work.

T.J Yeldon ($6,400 @DAL)

If Melvin Gordon is cheap Todd Gurley, T.J. Yeldon is well on his way to becoming cheap Melvin Gordon. Yeldon saw 10 targets last week catching 8 for 69 yards and a touchdown as was as 10 rushes for 53 yards. He is in for a full workhorse role until Leonard Fournette makes it back from his injury, he is a must play every week while he stays this cheap.

Latavius Murray ($4,700 vs ARI)

The Vikings play at home against a Cardinals defense who have given up the most points to Running Backs through 5 games. Dalvin Cook is just not right and is likely to miss this game so its wheels up for Murray. The Vikings are 11 point favourites and should see a lot of time with the lead, Murray could be looking at 20+ carries in this one, bargain at $4,700.

Chris Carson ($4,400 @OAK)

The Raiders have not been able to stop the run outside of Miami, where the Dolphins only attempted to run the ball 11 times. That game is the only thing stopping them being the worst team in the league against the run. The Seahawks have found success on the ground, and their running backs combined are averaging 111 rushing yards per game. While Carson’s usage went down from the 32 he saw in week 3 to 19 in week 5, after missing week 4 hurt, his efficiency got better. Carson averaged 6.1 ypc against a tough Rams defense, the Raiders backfield should be a cake walk in comparison.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans ($7,500 vs ATL)

Mike Evans has 236 catches for 3,417 yards and has scored 20 touchdowns in 45 games with Jameis Winston in his career. This is an average of 5.2 receptions and 76 yards per game with a touchdown every other game. The Falcons have given up 10 TDs to wide receivers this season which is tied for most in the NFL, and have given up over 42 points to WRs in each of their last 4 games. Winston will look to Evans throughout the game and he has the tools to run up points against this secondary. 

Tyler Boyd ($6,000 vs PIT)

Boyd had a down week in week 5 but he’s heading into one of the best matchups he’ll see this year. The Steelers have given up the 4th most points to WRs through 5 weeks and Andy Dalton has been playing at a high enough level to exploit this defense. Historically Steelers CB Joe Haden has kept A.J. Green under wraps, Boyd could see a lot more targets funnelled his way with this in mind. Boyd’s stinker in week 5 should ensure his ownership % recedes from what it has been in recent weeks, making him a smash play at $6,000. 

Mohamed Sanu ($4,800 vs TB)

This game has a juicy total line at 57.5, in Mo Sanu we are getting the WR2 in a high powered offense, playing at home in a game with a huge expected total for under $5k. Sanu now has three straight games with over 15 DK points, averaging 8 targets per game with 14 total receptions for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns in those three games. The Buccs are allowing the 2nd most points to WRs in the league despite being one of few teams to have had a bye already.

Chester Rodgers ($4,500 @NYJ)

Chester Rodgers is fresh off of back to back 11 target games, and he heads into another week without the competition of T.Y Hilton or Jack Doyle. The Jets Defense have given up the 5th most fantasy points to WRs so far, and they are without several key pieces for this fixture. If Rodgers sees anything close to 11 targets in this game he should vastly outproduce his $4,500 price tag.

Antonio Callaway ($4,000 vs LAC)

This is a risky play but the ceiling of Callaway is huge, with Baker Mayfield coming into his own in the league and coming up against a Chargers defense who have been disappointing so far in 2018. The Chargers have allowed the 7th most points to WRs this season, and Callaway has seen plenty of targets from Mayfield so far. Callaway is on a downward trend at the moment so his ownership should be rock bottom, this is slated to be a close game with the Chargers being just 1 point favourites, both teams should be passing all game long.

 

Tight End

Cameron Brate ($3,700 vs ATL)

Jameis Winston loves him some Cameron Brate, Brate was targeted 69 times by Winston last season and scored 6 touchdowns in their 13 games together. With O.J Howard questionable, Brate should see a huge uptick in volume, especially in this game where we expect so many points.

Vance McDonald ($3,400 vs CIN)

Vance had a down week in week 5, only seeing two targets and catching 1 for 6 yards. The under over for this game is a pretty big 52.5, with an implied totoal of 28 points you can expect the Steelers to make several trips to the end zone, and McDonald is more than capable of being amongst the scorers. $3,400 allows you to spend up at other positions but also gives you a huge ceiling TE

 

Defense/Special Teams

For an incredible insight into how to best select your DFS Defenses, check out this article from Matt Jones (@MattJonesTFR): https://dynastyfootballfactory.com/putting-the-d-in-dfs/

Houston Texans ($3,500 vs BUF)

Rule no.1 – Play any/every defense vs the Bills.

Dallas Cowboys ($2,500 vs JAX)

The Jaguars offensive line is falling to pieces, their star RB is out for the foreseeable future which should keep Blake Bortles wildly hurtling the football downfield into the waiting arms of the Cowboys secondary.

That’s it for this week, hopefully these guys help you get into the green this Sunday. If you use any of these guys in your line-ups this weekend let me know how you get on over on twitter @DFF_Mste. Good Luck!

mstephenson

Editor and Director of #DFS content for @DFF_Dynasty and Writer for @DFF_Redraft.

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