The Dak Decision: Understanding and Acting on his Season-Ending Injury

Sunday was a day on which fans experienced the uplifting hope of seeing the return of Alex Smith, only to feel the despair of losing Dak Prescott. The Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott dominated the headlines during the 2020 NFL offseason, and they are going to do so again in 2021. The 1-3 Dallas Cowboys went into a Week 5 matchup with their division foes the New York Giants in must-win mode.  During the third-quarter Prescott took a first-down quarterback draw as the Cowboys approached the Giants’ red zone. On this play he was tackled by Logan Ryan, as Ryan brought him down he rolled up under Prescott who suffered a compound fracture and dislocation to his right ankle. During the moment, other than thoughts and prayers for Prescott’s health the underlying fear was remembering Gordon Hayward’s similar and brutal injury in 2017.

Prescott, fortunately, appeared to avoid an open fracture (bone piercing through the skin) and is reportedly on a four- to six-month program physically. Needless to say, Prescott will not return in this 2020 season, a season that has been brutal when it comes to injuries sustained to high-profile players.

Short-Term Impact

The Dallas Cowboys did make a very wise move in this offseason bringing in Cincinnati Bengals long-time starter Andy Dalton to back up Prescott. In Sunday’s game, he was able to replace the injured Prescott and manage the Cowboys to a fourth-quarter comeback victory. In terms of normal football, this is a big hit to the Cowboys’ playoff hopes, but the division is so poor that Dalton may be able to manage the explosive offense to a divisional title. The Cowboys have two games against the Washington Football Team, two games against the Philadelphia Eagles, one game against the New York Giants, and one game against the Cincinnati Bengals marking their easier games down the stretch.

Andy Dalton is a must-add in superflex or 2QB leagues, a sell now window for rebuilding dynasty teams, and a decent streaming option in 1QB formats. Kellen Moore will put Dalton in a position to succeed unlike how the Bengals used him, by pairing play action with the threat of Ezekiel Elliott along with having three superstar potential wide receiving options and a surprisingly solid Dalton Schultz at tight end. Dalton is not a super inspiring pickup in fantasy; however, he is being placed in an offense that in only four and a half games Prescott accumulated over 1,800 passing yards.

Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys superstar running back, will be featured heavily in this offense, as OC Kellen Moore will turn to quick one and two-read plays. Though we can project more volume for Elliott his overall production is unlikely to rise as without Prescott under center, the Cowboys will be in significantly fewer opportunities in scoring position. This being said based on the volume, Elliott is still a top-tier running back for the rest of the season.

The receiving core of Cooper, Gallup, and Lamb will be the most severely impacted by the loss of Prescott, though Dalton is arguably the best backup-option in the NFL. With this no longer being the explosive offense that will be scoring from anywhere and everywhere on the field, the decision of when to start or sit these players will be very muddied. Here is a target breakdown with Dalton running the Cowboys offense:

Other than the two big plays to Gallup there is very little to be enticed by for any of these receivers. The next couple of weeks are going to be crucial points for redraft and DFS players in figuring out how to value these options for a playoff push. As you can see Dalton Schultz was not targeted by Dalton; he takes one of the more severe short-term hits to his value.

Long-Term Impact

Although these receiving options are taking short-term hits, Prescott will be ready for action in 2021, and now is a potential buy-low window on the uber-talented receivers. With owners questioning how viable they will be as week-to-week options, savvy dynasty owners will attempt to buy these players at a value and with the possibility that their short-term hit is lesser than expected.

Amari Cooper was traded to the Dallas Cowboys in 2018 and signed a five-year deal in this offseason and is practically guaranteed to be with the team through 2021. He has only a $6 million dead cap hit if the team decides to move on from him after the 2021 season, which leaves the door open for any combination of receivers to be on the team long term.

Michael Gallup was drafted by the Cowboys in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft, which means he is under his rookie contract for two more seasons before becoming an unrestricted free agent after the 2021 season. Gallup has performed very well for the Cowboys, but having already invested $20 million per year in Cooper and $15 million per year in Elliott, we are unsure if the Cowboys will be able to sign Gallup to a long-term contract.

CeeDee Lamb was drafted by the Cowboys in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. As a first-round pick, the Cowboys have Lamb under contract for five years as there is no reason why they wouldn’t pick up his option based on his early career production. Lamb is the most talented receiver in Dallas in my opinion and will be drawing defense from opponents’ top cornerback in no time.

Ezekiel Elliott signed a massive contract making him the highest-paid running back prior to the McCaffrey deal tying him to the Cowboys through his age 31 season in 2026. While It is unlikely that Elliott will see that the entire contract plays out, we can expect that Elliott will be with the Cowboys for a very long time. The Cowboys have a potential out after the 2022 season which is as far out as we project for dynasty purposes.

The Dak Decision

The Cowboys reportedly offered Prescott a long-term contract north of $30 million per year in the 2020 offseason. While all of the details are not confirmed, we do know that Prescott rejected the offer and bet on himself playing on the franchise tag, much like Kirk Cousins did in Washington. The injury that Prescott suffered on Sunday ended his season but is not likely to be career-ending. However, there is speculation that he may have played his last game for the Dallas Cowboys. It is expected that Dak will return to football in a maximum of six months barring any setback, but I do believe there is a legitimate question to his emotional recovery and how much he will trust himself on the ground in his immediate return. I believe it will take a season in action before we see Prescott return to the rushing threat that he was prior to the injury.

The Cowboys have a decision to make now, without their star quarterback: do they make a playoff push with Dalton at the helm, or do they shut it down and tank for one of the sensational quarterbacks in the 2021 NFL Draft? At 2-3 after five weeks the Cowboys’ future is very much up in the air. While they will not tank the season for Trevor Lawrence, with their defense they still may find themselves in a position to select Justin Fields (which is unlikely) or Trey Lance. Trey Lance is going to be a project at the quarterback position starting only 17 games and playing against FCS level talent. Lance will be a first-round pick but do the Cowboys select him, and franchise tag Prescott to give them leverage at the negotiation table with Dak? I believe this is a very real possibility.

As fans, we all hope that the Cowboys do the right thing by signing Prescott to a long-term injury despite the brutal injury, but history has shown that the NFL decision-makers rarely, if ever, do the right thing for the player. It is much more likely that the Cowboys leverage the injury against Prescott at the negotiation table. In this case, Prescott would likely decline all offers as they were lower than the year prior. Prescott will play under the franchise tag at a price point of $38 million in 2021 and may have reason to want to leave Dallas after the petty negotiating.

This is a true crossroads for Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys organization. I expect that one way or another Dak remains as the franchise quarterback in Dallas, but I also expect that it will be a very bumpy ride getting there. Prescott will remain a top-ten quarterback in dynasty leagues going forward, although it will be extremely interesting to see how he is valued versus the incoming rookies Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields.

As devastating as this injury is for the Dallas Cowboys and Prescott, I am hopeful for a full recovery by the start of the 2021 season. In dynasty formats, he is a buy-low for teams who find themselves out of the playoff race, but at only 27 years old I would not advise to sell-low because he will recover to being a top-tier fantasy quarterback for years to come.

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