Here it is. The grand finale. The NFL Draft has concluded, and we now have the final input metric for our WR1 analytical model—draft capital. Below you will find the final post-NFL Draft rankings for the model.
The WR1 Analytical Model Rankings are one of our member favorites each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Months of research and years of dialing in and enhancing the model to accurately predict future wide receiver fantasy value bring us to today.
These WR1 model rankings will be your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career.
For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are so many advanced metrics out there nowadays, we here at DFF know it can be a struggle to navigate which ones matter and how much. The WR1 model takes all that hard work and boils it down to one easy-to-understand number. The model scores rookies on 13 predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating score. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics.
It is important to note that NFL teams DO NOT CARE about your fantasy teams. Their goal is to win games and they draft wide receivers that help them do that. While fantasy production is a big piece of that, there are other factors NFL teams covet as well.
You may find an in-depth explanation of the model’s process and a glossary of what the metrics mean here. Over the years, the WR1 process has been replicated and repackaged by other sites so we left out a few main ingredients to keep it proprietary but you get a good flavor of how it works.
Before we get into the 2024 prospects, here are the top 20 all-time prospects in the model so you can see how effective it is at forecasting future fantasy value.
The actual NFL draft capital doesn’t have near the hit rate as the WR1 model, as evidenced by this tweet from Adam Schefter.
The WR1 model is also highly effective at steering you clear of busts.
Here are all the wide receivers with a score below 35 that were selected in the first round since 2011:
Now let’s see how the 2024 class fared:
Honorable Mentions: Just missing the top-20:
20. Roman Wilson, Michigan
WR1 Model Score: -9.0
% Chance of a Top-24 Fantasy Season: 5.0%
Landing Spot: Average
Wilson was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers with the twentieth pick in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. The top three wide receivers on the Steelers’ depth chart are George Pickens, Van Jefferson, and Calvin Austin. Wilson has a path to targets but this is expected to be a run-heavy Arthur Smith-led offense with sub-par QB play. The Steelers ranked eighth lowest last year in pass yards per game and they doubled down on the run commitment this off-season.
Wilson earned 5 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Good
Film Grade
Wilson’s analytical profile doesn’t have a lot that pops off his resume. That is why the model also incorporates two film grades. NFL.com film legend, Lance Zierlein had a high grade on Wilson. Wilson’s score of 6.30 ranked tenth of the 24 wide receivers evaluated in the WR1 model. Zierlein wrote this about Wilson in his draft profile. “Smooth strider with alarming speed once he touches top gear. Wilson primarily focused on attacking the intermediate and deep portions of the field, adding an explosive element to the Wolverines’ ground-and-pound approach. Wilson is an electrifying athlete, which should push his stock up, but he’ll need to learn to level up his skill getting from Point A to Point B as a route-runner to reach his potential. Wilson has good hands and can run after the catch down the field, but he’s not really a catch-and-go option underneath. He has the separation potential to make a quarterback’s life easier and figures to continue his ascension as a starting slot talent.”
Wilson earned 7 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Bad
Late Declare
Prospects that declare when they are first eligible have a significantly higher hit rate than prospects that declare after this. In essence, it’s an endorsement by the NFL that says that they are ready to compete at the highest level despite not playing four years in college. Wilson falls under this late declare category and gets dinged in the model.
Wilson lost 5 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
Slot Percentage
Wilson had a 68.7% slot usage in college. In general, slot receivers are seen as less valuable as they have more space to work with to create separation. The lack of talent depth in college also means slot receivers are seeing inferior coverage. Further, they also have hash marks that are 40 feet apart while the NFL hash marks are only 18 feet apart allowing slot fades to be heavily integrated in college with more space to work.
Wilson lost 10 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
The Ugly
Weighted Dominator Breakout Year
Age-adjusted production is a significant predictor of future NFL success. The more success a player sees at a younger age, the more likely they are to be successful in the NFL. Weighted dominator measures a player’s share of his team’s yardage and touchdowns weighted 80% yardage and 20% touchdowns. Ideally, we want our top prospects to achieve a breakout by their second year in college. Wilson not only failed to do this, but he also failed to break out by his third year. His breakout only came this last year, his fourth in college when he achieved a 29.7% weighted dominator.
Wilson lost 2 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
College Career Fantasy Points Per Game
Wilson averaged only 9.2 fantasy points per game in his college career. This ranked 21st of the 24 wide receivers we ranked for this exercise that are expected to be drafted.
Wilson lost 5 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
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15. Javon Baker, Central Florida
WR1 Model Score: 15.0
% Chance of a Top-24 Fantasy Season: 28.4%
Landing Spot: Average
Baker was drafted by the New England Patriots with the tenth pick in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. The Patriots are bereft of talent in their wide receiver room so the opportunity to compete for targets will be there. The Patriots have a raw rookie QB and a low-ceiling veteran who will be passing the ball this season. The Patriots ranked fifth lowest last year in pass yards per game.
Baker earned 5 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Good
College Weighted Dominator Rating
Baker was a 4-star recruit who started his career at Alabama before really breaking out at Central Florida. Facing Big 12 competition his senior year Baker compiled 1139 yards and 7 touchdowns. His weighted dominator (team share weighted 80% receiving yards and 20% touchdowns) was an excellent 32.9%. That was the seventh-best in the class.
Baker earned 3 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt Per Game
Baker not only achieved lofty volume thresholds but he was also efficient with his touches. His YPRR (3.21) and receiving yards per team pass attempt per game (RYPTPAPG) (3.12) both eclipsed the 3.00 elite threshold we like from our top prospects. His 3.12 RYPTPAPG was good for fourth in the class.
Baker earned 10 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
The Bad
Relative Athletic Score
Baker tested quite poorly which is a red flag for a true X receiver. His height is merely average, his straight-line speed is below average among the top prospects in the class, and his 40-time was only 4.54 seconds. Overall, his Relative Athletic Score was just 7.84. To put this into context that number ranked 22nd of the 24 wide receivers evaluated in the WR1 model.
Baker earned 0 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
The Ugly
College Career Fantasy Points Per Game
It’s important to note that this metric is the one we ultimately want them to produce when they get to the NFL. Therefore, it is quite worrisome that Baker only managed to put up 8.7 fantasy points per game throughout his career. He barely saw the field for Alabama in his freshman and sophomore years. The competition for targets was good but not great in Jameson Williams and John Metchie. For our top prospects, we like to see them break through lineup competition such as that.
Baker lost 5 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
14. Luke McCaffrey, Rice
WR1 Model Score: 15.0
% Chance of a Top-24 Fantasy Season: 28.4%
Landing Spot: Average
McCaffrey was drafted by the Washington Commanders with the 37th pick in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. McCaffrey should build an immediate rapport with fellow rookie Jayden Daniels. 71.5% of his snaps at Rice last year came from the slot. Jahan Dotson takes most of the snaps from the slot for the Commanders but does move out a decent amount. Other than that the pickings are thin in Washington. The Commanders ranked 18th in pass yards per game last year.
McCaffrey earned 5 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Good
College Career Fantasy Points Per Game
McCaffrey only converted to wide receiver in 2022 after trying his hand at quarterback in the earlier part of his college career. Once he converted, he posted an incredible 18.6 fantasy points per game in his final two years at Rice. For his college career as a wide receiver, he ranked number one overall among wide receivers in this class. This score was higher than Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. So how can he rank 20 overall you ask? Well, there are 13 metrics that feed the model and we will get to the ones that are dragging him down.
McCaffrey earned 6 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
Weighted Dominator Rating
Weighted dominator measures a player’s share of his team’s yardage and touchdowns weighted 80% yardage and 20% touchdowns. McCaffrey posted an excellent 33.1% weighted dominator rating (80% yards team share, 20% touchdowns team share). This was good for sixth in the class.
McCaffrey earned 3 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
Relative Athletic Score
McCaffrey has an outstanding athletic profile. This is highlighted by his 4.02 shuttle and 6.7 three-cone times. Those two metrics are highly coveted in NFL circles. McCaffrey has the tools to develop into an elite slot receiver in the NFL. He just hasn’t been doing it very long, so he is more of a projection than other prospects.
McCaffrey earned 15 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Bad
Late Declare
McCaffrey was eligible to declare for the NFL last year but did not. Given that he had just converted from quarterback to wide receiver, him being a late declare is not a surprise but still it is a ding to his WR1 model score.
McCaffrey lost 5 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
The Ugly
Draft Capital
McCaffrey was selected in the 3rd round with the 100th overall pick by the Washington Commanders. McCaffrey was projected to be a fifth-rounder by consensus mock drafters so despite the late pick it was actually better than forecasted. Jahan Dotson played 39% of his snaps in the slot last year.McCaffrey played 71.5% of his snaps in the slot. It will be interesting to see how the Commanders deploy the two.
McCaffrey lost 8 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
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10. Adonai Mitchell
WR1 Model Score: 23.0
% Chance of a Top-24 Fantasy Season: 28.4%
Landing Spot: Average
Mitchell was drafted by the Indianapolis Colts Steelers with the 20th pick in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. The Colts have two incumbent top tier target earners in Michael Pittman and Josh Downs. Mitchell figures to slot in third in targets taking Alec Pierce’s role over. The Colts ranked just 20th best in pass yards per game last year.
Mitchell earned 5 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Good
Relative Athletic Score
As mentioned in the draft capital section, NFL scouts are wowed by Mitchell’s traits. He has solid WR size at 6’2” and 205 lbs. His straight-line speed as measured by his 4.34 40-yard dash grades out as elite for a man of his size. He also possesses elite jumping ability as shown by his 39.5 inch vertical and 11’04” broad jump. The traits are there for a high-ceiling NFL career.
Mitchell earned 15 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
Early Declare
Mitchell is declaring after his third year playing college football. He is forfeiting his remaining college eligibility to enter the NFL.
Mitchell earned 5 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Hideous
Everything Else
The WR1 model uses 13 inputs. Anything that has to do with actual production Adonai Mitchell looks terrible in. That is what makes him such a fascinating prospect. He jumps off the film and has all the traits to be a top-tier elite talent. So why has he been so mediocre so far?
Many blame his quarterback play but Xavier Worthy managed to produce just fine. PFF also had Ewers graded as the 10th best QB in their PFF grading system for Power 5 QBs. It’s not elite, but not terrible.
So how bad was his production?
Mitchell ranked:
24th of 24 wide receivers in receiving yards per team pass attempt
21st of 24 wide receivers in PFF receiving grade
20th of 24 wide receivers in college career fantasy points per game
20th of 24 wide receivers in weighted dominator
And here is a stat that will blow your mind:
YPRR is one of the most predictive metrics for future fantasy success in the NFL. Mitchell’s best season YPRR ranked 24th of the 24 wide receivers in the model for this draft class. That is terrible. But what makes it even worse is Mitchell’s best season YPRR was worse than 22 of the prospect’s second-best season in YPRR. That is monumentally bad.
Ultimately this isn’t a fashion show. We play fantasy to get the most points based on player production. Mitchell can look as great as he wants on tape and has better athletic traits than 95% of the wide receivers in the NFL. But if that doesn’t translate to production I can’t in good faith recommend you draft him in your Dynasty leagues. It also says a lot that his PFF grade was so bad. This is in essence a very comprehensive film grade that rates every targeted pass attempt, not just the highlights.
9. Ricky Pearsall, Florida
WR1 Model Score: 26.0
% Chance of a Top-24 Fantasy Season: 28.4%
Landing Spot: Average
Pearsall was drafted by the San Francisco 49ers with the 31st pick in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. He enters a crowded room of receiving weapons with Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. One of those is expected to be traded and the 49ers ranked fifth last year in pass yards per game. For this reason he stays at average vs. below average.
Pearsall earned 5 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Good
Film Grade
Film legend Lance Zierlein is very high on Pearsall. Pearsall’s film grade awarded by Zierlien was a stout 6.32. This was good for seventh overall in the class. Zierlien states the following about Pearsall. “Dependable slot target with good size and soft hands who will need to prove that he can free himself against NFL man coverage. Pearsall might get the stereotypical “crafty route runner” label, but it suits him. He appears to play with an idea of how to manipulate certain coverage looks and leverages. He also plays with attention to detail and a consistent route tempo to create windows but lacks ideal foot quickness to beat the press and maintain separation. While the hands are reliable, he’s not physical enough to tilt contested catches in his favor and might have a ceiling of quality backup with punt-return value.”
Pearsall earned 7 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
Relative Athletic Score
Pearsall is one of the most athletically gifted wide receivers in this class. His 9.91 Relative Athletic Score ranked tied for fourth overall in the class. NFL scouts drool over prospects who excel in the shuttle and three-cone drills. Pearsall ran a 4.05 shuttle and 6.64 three-cone both of which graded out in the elite tier of prospect.
Pearsall earned 15 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Bad
Slot Percentage
Pearsall had a 56.5% slot usage in college. In general, slot receivers are seen as less valuable as they have more space to work with. The lack of talent depth in college also means slot receivers are seeing inferior coverage. Further, they also have hash marks that are 40 feet apart while the NFL hash marks are only 18 feet apart allowing slot fades to be heavily integrated in college with more space to work.
Pearsall lost 10 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
Late Declare
Pearsall not only failed to declare when first eligible after his third year of college, but he also did not declare for the NFL Draft after his fourth year. It was only after his fifth year that NFL scouts finally endorsed his play to say he would get significant enough draft capital to enter the draft.
Pearsall lost 5 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
The Ugly
College Career Fantasy Points Per Game
In his fourth year in college, which would be the final year for most prospects, Pearsall achieved a career-high yardage total. However, this total was only 661 receiving yards. Age-adjusted production is a high predictor of future fantasy success. Pearsall did proceed to put up a solid 965-yard year this past season but he was also in his fifth year of eligibility playing against 18 and 19-year-old cornerbacks. For a player with five years of college, you would certainly like to see a higher average career fantasy points per game as most top prospects achieve their breakout in their second or third year and then continue to grow volume from their making the lower freshman production less of a factor.
However, Pearsall still only managed 10.0 fantasy points per game over his career. This ranked 19th of the 24 prospects in the model in this draft class.
Pearsall earned 15 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
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5. Ladd McConkey
WR1 Model Score: 54.0
% Chance of a Top-24 Fantasy Season: 54.2%
Landing Spot: Above Average
McConkey was drafted by the Los Angeles Chargers with the second pick in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. He immediately steps into an alpha role stacked with a historically good young passer in Justin Herbert. Expect the Chargers to run more than past years with Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman pulling the strings on offense. The Chargers ranked thirteenth best last year in pass yards per game..
McConkey earned 8 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Good
Yards Per Route Run
McConkey’s profile doesn’t wow you with cumulative production statistics. But his efficiency was excellent. He trailed only Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr., Johnny Wilson, and Troy Franklin in this very important predictive metric.
McConkey earned 12 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
Breakout Year
In an ideal world, we want our top receiving prospects to achieve a breakout (20% team receiving share) by their second year. McConkey accomplished this feat with 762 yards receiving as a sophomore at Georgia.
McConkey earned 4 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Bad
Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt Per Game
It is unusual to see YPRR and receiving yards per team pass attempt per game so misaligned for the same prospect. This speaks to McConkey’s usage at Georgia. He was simply not in the game running routes as much as your typical wide receiver. Kirby Smart clearly thinks he either doesn’t add any value unless targeted or is an injury risk.
McConkey registered a mere 1.99 receiving yards per team pass attempt per game. This ranked 21st of the 24 top-receiving prospects evaluated in the model.
McConkey earned 0 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Ugly
College Weighted Dominator Rating
McConkey’s volume simply was not there. Georgia chose to play him more as a part-time player for whatever reason. This is not the end of the world. We saw the same thing with Puka Nacua at BYU. This is why we pay attention to the underlying efficiency metrics such as YPRR.
However, it is absolutely a red flag. McConkey ranked 24th of the 24 top prospects evaluated in this model.
McConkey lost 5 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
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3. Rome Odunze
WR1 Model Score: 74.0
% Chance of a Top-24 Fantasy Season: 70.8%
Landing Spot: Below Average
Odunze was drafted by the Chicago Bears with the ninth pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. DJ Moore commanded a 28.9% target share last year while Keenan Allen commanded a 32% target share. These are two alphas that Odunze has to compete with for targets while a rookie QB mans the helm. The Bears ranked sixth lowest last year in pass yards per game.
Odunze earned 0 points in this category towards his overall WR1 score.
The Good
Draft Capital
We are now in the blue-chip section of the rankings with each of the three remaining prospects having a greater than 70% chance of achieving at least one top-24 fantasy season in their career. Top-15 picks in the NFL draft predictably hit at a higher rate than receivers drafted in other rounds. Odunze now meets this criteria.
Odunze earned 20 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
Film Grade
Film legend, Lance Zierlein, gave Odunze the third-highest grade in this draft class with a stout 6.74. For context, this was a higher grade than any other wide receiver from the 2023 class. Zierlein had this to say about Odunze, “While most receivers look to open separation windows with speed or route running, Odunze seems to relish jump balls and contested catches. He shines in all aspects of ball skills, including positioning, body control, hand strength, timing and mid-air adjustments. He has a tendency to cruise through routes rather than working with attention to detail and pacing. He was a decorated high school sprinter, so speed should not be an issue in the pros. He’s a high-volume target on the next level that play-callers can utilize to mismatch finesse cornerbacks. Elite ball skills are often the secret sauce for top NFL receivers, so it should not surprise if Odunze is a Day 1 starter who becomes a top-flight WR1.”
Odunze earned 11 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
College Career Fantasy Points Per Game
Odunze shined in this metric which is ultimately the metric we want the prospect to succeed in for our Dynasty teams. Odunze mark of 17.4 fantasy points per game was second in the class. Staying the extra year helps his cause here as production in early years is almost always lower vs. the players who were early declares but this is still an impressive feat.
Odunze earned 3 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
The Bad
Weighted Dominator Breakout
Odunze had receiving yardage totals of 72 and 415 in his first two years at Washington. This failed to meet the 20% team share criteria needed to qualify for a breakout. It was not until Odunze’s third year at Washington that he finally broke out with an 1145-yard season.
Odunze lost 1 point in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
The Ugly
Late Declare
17 of the top-20 ranked wide receivers in the WR1 model were early declares. The only ones who were not were DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave, and Corey Davis. Two of those three were hits or 67% which is far lower than the 91.7% hit rate of the overall top 20.
Odunze lost 5 points in this category toward his overall WR1 score.
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You made it! This is the end. I hope you enjoyed this article as much as I enjoyed all the research and analysis.
Thank you to Player Profiler, Lance Zierlein, NFL Mock Draft Database, and Spaceman Prospect Database for supplying data. Some of these metrics are dynamic and may change after this article is published.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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