Tez Johnson | WR | Oregon | 2025 Draft Prospect
Tez Johnson will be a redshirt senior for what should be an electric Oregon Ducks offense in 2024. This roster will feature two big-name transfers, Dillon Gabriel (QB) and Evan Stewart (WR), two guys who have dominated college football headlines this offseason. They also have emerging star Jordan James (RB) out of the backfield, who posted one of the most efficient rushing seasons in the country in 2023. As a result, not many are talking about Tez Johnson, a star player in his own right. Let’s dive into the devy profile of Tez Johnson and discuss 2024 projections as well as future dynasty value for the young man.
Troy University (2020-22)
Tez spent the first three years of his collegiate career playing in the Sun Belt conference for Troy University. At first glance, his numbers didn’t pop for me, averaging roughly 50 YPG through 36 contests. But digging a bit deeper, we see that this kid was actually a dominant alpha on this team from a young age.
Johnson was able to redshirt in 2020 due to COVID, so he entered the 2021 season as a redshirt freshman. That year, he led his team in receptions and yards, more than doubling the next-best player in each category. He finished with over 2.0 yards per route run (YPRR) and nearly 30% targets per route run (TPRR). In 2022, as a redshirt sophomore, Tez posted even better numbers. He ended with an eye-popping 3.52 YPRR and 33% TPRR.
Oregon (2023)
After a successful career at Troy, Johnson elected to transfer to the West Coast and play for HC Dan Lanning. Tez had his work cut out for him, lining up opposite another elite wide receiver in Troy Franklin, who is projected to potentially be a Round 1 pick in the NFL Draft. Johnson more than held his own, though, racking up 86 receptions on 106 targets for 1,182 yards and 10 touchdowns. Tez was the 1B to Troy’s 1A, helping to make Oregon one of the most dangerous offenses in the entire country. Following the season, Johnson announced his decision to stay in college for his redshirt senior season in hopes of bringing home a national championship to Eugene.
Efficiency Metrics
Listed below are three metrics that really spell out just how productive and efficient Tez Johnson has been as a college receiver. The stats listed are YPRR, TPRR, and Contested Target Rate. The contested target rate number helps us see how often a receiver is creating separation from his defenders.
| YPRR | TPRR | Contested TR | |
| 2023 | 3.45 | 30.90% | 3.77% |
| 2022 | 3.52 | 33.33% | 13.58% |
| 2021 | 2.27 | 29.70% | 9.68% |
| 2020 | 1.92 | 20.91% | 4.35% |
As you can see, Tez posted some respectable numbers as a true freshman at Troy, but he really broke out as a redshirt freshman and hasn’t looked back. Since 2021, Tez has posted greater than 29% TPRR each season, and he broke 3.0 YPRR in each of the past two seasons. These are truly elite numbers. A contested target rate under 15% is ideal, and Tez has been under that number every year of college. Most recently, in 2023, Johnson had an absurd contested target rate of 3.77% on 104 targets. Much of this has to do with the plethora of weapons Oregon had on offense, helping to create mismatches for Tez. But regardless, this is an unbelievably impressive mark.
2024 Projections
Tez will be in a similar situation next season as he was in 2023, competing for targets with another elite prospect. Evan Stewart is widely regarded as a Top 3 WR in this 2025 Draft class (assuming he declares). Stewart’s early dominance in the SEC as a freshman in 2022 showed us that he is one of the most gifted athletes in college football.
Tez is up for the challenge, though. He’s always demanded a large target share; don’t expect that to stop now. Plus, these guys should complement one another well. Stewart typically lines up out wide, while Tez is almost exclusively in the slot. He’ll continue to get peppered with targets in the short to intermediate areas of the field in 2024. I expect another thousand-yard, 10 touchdown, 30% target share season from Johnson to close out his impressive college career.
Dynasty/Devy Value
There are two major red flags to Johnson’s game that will come up this time next year. The first red flag being that Tez will be 23 years old before he steps onto an NFL field. And the second red flag being that he only weighs 160 pounds.
Now, we’ve seen lighter players find success at the NFL level in recent years. DeVonta Smith and Tank Dell are both Top 20 dynasty wide receivers. But 160 pounds is insanely light, and concerns about handling the physical toll of a full NFL season will certainly be discussed. The fact Tez has stayed relatively healthy all through college is a good sign; hopefully, he will keep this good fortune in 2024.
We know NFL teams generally don’t value slot guys quite as highly as X-receivers, or at least it appears that way based on draft capital. Because of this, I don’t think Tez will be anywhere near the first round in the NFL Draft, but if he finds himself selected on Day 2 to a good landing spot, this could be someone with a sneaky high ceiling in full PPR formats. I think in terms of talent, Tez is probably one of the six or seven best wide receivers in the 2025 draft class. His game translates well to fantasy, so be sure to keep an eye on him and buy low in your devy leagues if you can!
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
