After years of proven success with my WR1 Analytical Model outperforming NFL Draft Capital at predicting future fantasy success of rookie wide receiver prospects, I am excited to unveil the TE1 Analytical Model. Similar to the WR1 model, this model was developed using a recipe of the most predictive advanced college statistics that prior NFL fantasy superstars exhibited.
I advise using these rankings to find value relative to average draft position which can be found in most online draft rooms. For example, when we ranked Malik Nabers ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. in the WR1 model last year, almost no rookie drafts had a scenario where Nabers was being drafted ahead of Harrison. Harrison was the near-unanimous WR1 overall. So, you know you are safe to trade back to a spot where you can pick up another asset and still get Nabers. You can also check out our our Dynasty Rookie Draft Guide to see our full player writeups and consensus expert rankings.
I cover all tight ends drafted in this model.
To begin, I will provide a list of the tight ends I do not recommend rostering in Dynasty:
Gavin Bartholomew: Round 6, Overall Pick 102 – Minnesota Vikings
Thomas Fidone: Round 7, Overall Pick 219 – New York Giants
Caleb Lohner: Round 7, Overall Pick 241 – Denver Broncos
Moliki Matavao: Round 7, Overall Pick 248 – New Orleans Saints
Luke Lachey: Round 7, Overall Pick 255 – Houston Texans
Before we get to the tight ends I recommend in a 5-round rookie draft, here are the honorable mention tight ends you may want to consider rostering, if they are available as free agents after the rookie draft:
Mitchell Evans: Round 5, Overall Pick 163 – Carolina Panthers
Jackson Hawes: Round 5, Overall Pick 173 – Buffalo Bills
Gunnar Helm: Round 4, Overall Pick 120 – Tennessee Titans
Below are the tight ends I recommend drafting in your Dynasty Rookie Drafts and how I rank them, along with their current rookie draft average draft position, per Dynasty Data Lab.
7. Oronde Gadsden (Syracuse) – TE1 Model Score: 10
NFL Draft Round 5, Overall Pick 165 – Los Angeles Chargers
Gadsden has an NFL pedigree as his namesake father had a productive NFL career as a widow receiver for the Miami Dolphins. Gadsden Jr. meanwhile had his own productive college career at Syracuse. Gadsden would have graded higher but his 5th round draft capital drags him down. If he had the same second-round draft capital as those above him in the ranks he would have ranked fourth overall (ahead of Mason Taylor) His second-year breakout with a tidy 975-yard receiving line is excellent. What is concerning, however, is that this was his best year.
Gadsden’s best season yards per route run was 2.44 which ranks fourth best amongst tight ends in this class. His weighted dominator ranked third, even ahead of Tyler Warren. His college career fantasy points per game ranked second at 11.9.
Gadsden earned a 5.93 film grade from film legend Lance Zielein. Zierlein states, “Receiver-to-tight-end convert who comes from NFL bloodlines. Gadsden is more of a big slot receiver than a pass-catching tight end. He gets hung up on press coverage and won’t outrange NFL man coverage downfield, but his wingspan gives him a distinct advantage at the catch stage. He creates throwing windows when he’s allowed to stay on the move, and he battles for contested catches. He needs to get stronger and become a little more competitive as a blocker but there’s enough receiving talent for him to be picked on Day 3 of the draft.”
Dynasty Rookie Draft Average Draft Position: 54
Recommendation: Gadsden is a buy at his current average draft position of 54 and someone you should target in the late 4th to early 5th rounds of rookie drafts.
6. Elijah Arroyo (Miami) – TE1 Model Score: 16
NFL Draft Round 2, Overall Pick 50 – Seattle Seahawks
Arroyo received excellent draft capital being selected by Seattle in round 2 of the NFL Draft. His production profile is concerning, however. He was more of a traits, development selection. It is a red flag for me whenever a player has not had a best season yards per route run above 2.00 in his college career. Arroyo maxed out at 1.70. Arroyo can not use QB play as an excuse as he played with top overall pick Cam Ward at Miami. Arroyo’s college career fantasy points per game were only 4.70, the worst of the 7 tight ends that made our ranks as draftable in Dynasty rookie drafts.
Arroyo received a 6.24 film grade from Lance Zierlein. Zeirlein writes, “Arroyo enters the evaluation process with questions to answer after a knee injury took chunks of two seasons from him. He displayed a willingness as both a point-of-attack and move blocker, but his technique and play strength will need upgrading. He’s an average athlete who struggles to beat man coverage but appeared to get faster and more fluid as the 2024 season wore on. He plays with awareness in space and secures throws with sure hands in traffic. Arroyo is a move tight end whose medical and athletic testing need to check out to give him a legitimate shot at being a productive pro.”
Dynasty Rookie Draft Average Draft Position: 29
Recommendation: Arroyo is a fade at his current average draft position of 29.
5. Terrance Ferguson (Oregon) – TE1 Model Score: 23
NFL Draft Round 2, Overall Pick 46 – Los Angeles Rams
Ferguson is an intriguing prospect. Athleticism has always been a good predictor of future success for tight-end prospects and Ferguson has that.
His 9.32 Relative Athletic Score is one of the highest in this class.
His production profile has some bright spots in it but is not elite. He does eclipse the aforementioned 2.00 barrier for yards per route run with a best-season mark of 2.21. However, he did not achieve a breakout season until his fourth year. Age-adjusted production is an important predictor of future success, so we want to see that happen earlier. His receiving yards per team pass attempt was relatively weak as well at just 1.50. This was the second lowest of the seven tight ends that made our top 7 rankings.
Ferguson received a solid 6.17 film grade from Lance Zierlein. Zierlein writes, “Productive pass catcher with good size but an alarming lack of tenacity and fire when it’s time to run block. Ferguson saw adequate short-catch volume but was rarely asked to venture beyond the front yard as a route-runner. He has not shown enough technique or toughness to neutralize an NFL edge defender at the point of attack, but he can hit targets as a move blocker. Ferguson could improve in that area with additional coaching, but he might need to find the grit needed to compete against NFL tough guys as a run blocker to realize his full potential.”
Dynasty Rookie Draft Average Draft Position: 29
Recommendation: Ferguson is priced about right in Dynasty. If he falls to you beyond 29, he is a worthwhile pick especially in tight-end premium leagues. I am not actively trying to trade ahead of pick 29 to get him, however.
4. Mason Taylor (LSU) – TE1 Model Score: 38
NFL Draft Round 2, Overall Pick 42 – New York Jets
Taylor is the second entry in our top 7 to have a famous NFL father. Mason Taylor is the son of legendary Miami Dolphin pass rusher Jason Taylor. He is the consensus third-overall tight end being selected in Dynasty rookie drafts, so our model is lower than consensus. He has a major red flag in that his best season yards per route run is only 1.24. This mark is easily the worst of the top 7 tight ends in one of the most important predictors of future fantasy success. On the bright side, he is an early declare meaning the NFL believes he is ready to contribute when he is first eligible.
Lance Zierlein gave Taylor a 6.40 film grade. This was good for third overall in the class. Zierlein writes, “Ascending tight end with plus catch talent and Hall of Fame bloodlines. With just three seasons under Taylor’s belt, more growth is expected in both his game and frame. He’s a smooth athlete with adequate acceleration and the tools to become a more effective route runner in time. He feels defenders around him and catches with sudden hands and elevated focus when needed. He can handle blocking duties on the move or in space, but in-line action will be a challenge for him. His game needs polish, but Taylor has the ability to become a higher-volume target for a team looking to upgrade at the “F” tight end spot.”
Dynasty Rookie Draft Average Draft Position: 22
Recommendation: Taylor is a fade for me as a Dynasty Rookie Draft second-rounder.
3. Harold Fannin (Bowling Green) – TE1 Model Score: 50
NFL Draft Round 3, Overall Pick 67 – Cleveland Browns
Fannin’s average draft position is tampered down by the fact he is seemingly blocked by one of the league’s better tight ends, David Njoku. Talent always finds a way though.
Fannin’s 3.65 yards per route run is also incredible. It is the highest I have in my database. For comparison, the next 2 highest sinc eI started recording this were, Kyle Pitts‘ at 3.26, and Brock Bowers’s at 3.01
Per PFF, Fannin also set these historic marks:
117 Receptions (FBS TE Record)
1,550 Yards (FBS TE Record)
868 Yards After Contact (PFF Era Record)
32 Missed Tackles Forced (PFF Era Record)
96.5 Receiving Grade (PFF Era Record)
Fannin is not as adored by the film community as he is by the analytics community which tells you why he lasted until the third round of the NFL draft. Lance Zierlein writes, “Enigmatic prospect featuring record-breaking single-season catch production despite a straight-legged playing style. Fannin’s lack of functional bend forces him on more linear tracks and cuts his route tree in half, but it doesn’t keep him from getting around the field and through the pattern with good speed. Fannin’s hands are automatic and he’s a competitive runner after the catch, but he needs to prove he can beat tight press-man coverage. He won’t block much, but his ability to stretch the field from the slot and make the tough catches give him a shot as a potential TE2 with upside.”
Dynasty Rookie Draft Average Draft Position: 32
Recommendation: Fannin is a buy at his current average draft position of 32, especially if you can afford to be a little patient for him to work his way into the offense.
2. Tyler Warren (Penn St.) – TE1 Model Score: 85
NFL Draft Round 1, Overall Pick 14 – Indianapolis Colts
Warren had a historic season in 2024 setting the record for most receiving yards in the Big Ten by a tight end. He had the second-best receiving yards per team pass attempt at 2.80 in the class behind Fannin. Warren posted the second-best PFF receiving grade as well at 92.7.
Warren does have a fairly large red flag. His production profile looks a lot like Xavier Legette‘s at first glance. Both had very limited production their first four years, then had a huge fifth year. That is not typically what you want to see, but it is very important to add context here. Warren played behind four separate tight ends drafted into the NFL: Pat Freiermuth, Brenton Strange, Zach Kuntz, and Theo Johnson. And there are fewer total TE snaps than WR. Given there are three wide receivers on the field a lot of the time and one tight end, there simply isn’t the same opportunity to earn snaps at tight end as there is at wide receiver. Age-adjusted production is an important predictor of future fantasy success, so Warren gets dinged in our model for this late production.
Warren posted a film grade by Lance Zierlein of 6.77, top in the class. Zierlein states, “The ultimate “whatever, whenever” player in the 2025 draft with the size, athleticism, and competitive spirit to make good on his intentions. Warren plays with swagger and “best player on the field” energy. He imprints on games with alignment versatility, allowing opportunities for play-callers to stress the defense. Despite his size, he’s quick enough to beat man coverage underneath and plays with good recognition of holes in coverage. He has the ball skills and toughness to win contested catches and withstand punishing contact. He’s very capable as a lead/move blocker but will need a little improvement at sustaining blocks when blocking in-line. Warren can access all three levels of the field but is best served short and intermediate. He possesses elite football character and plays with a confidence that can be contagious. He has a chance to become one of the best tight ends in the league.”
Dynasty Rookie Draft Average Draft Position: 8
Recommendation: Warren is priced a bit high at 8, but I have clicked the draft button at pick 12 personally so he is close to the right price.
1. Colston Loveland (Michigan) – TE1 Model Score: 89
NFL Draft Round 1, Overall Pick 10 – Detroit Lions
A big differentiator between Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren in this analytical model is age-adjusted production. Loveland broke out as a true sophomore with a 649-yard season for the National Champion Wolverines in 2023.Our analysts compare his play style to Mike Gesicki in our Dynasty Rookie Guide. He was limited to only 10 games this year but was able to muster up an impressive 34.7% weighted dominator rating (share of the team’s touchdowns and receiving yards). He broke out as a sophomore with 649 receiving yards in the Wolverines championship run.
Loveland was one of three tight ends to post a PFF receiving grade above 90. His draft capital was superb as he was selected 10th overall. That is higher than generational tight-end prospect Brock Bowers last year who was picked 13th overall.
Loveland received a 6.70 film grade from Lance Zierlein. Zierlein writes, “Talented young tight end with the athletic ability and ball skills to become an elite talent as a pass catcher. Colston plays the game like a big wideout, capable of separating from man coverage and making plays on all three levels. He has good play speed and runs a route tree full of branches, allowing creative play-callers to move him around as a mismatch option. His routes can be a little hurried and lacking in detail but that should change with coaching. He’s graceful in-air and catches the ball with good timing and strong hands. He will keep filling out his frame but is unlikely to ever become more than average as a blocker. Colston’s collection of athletic traits and catch talent creates a high ceiling with the opportunity to become a high-volume target and future Pro Bowler.”
Dynasty Rookie Draft Average Draft Position: 12
Recommendation: Loveland is a good value at his average draft position of 12 overall. I would be willing to draft him as high as the 7th pick in tight-end premium leagues.
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