Tale of the Tape is a series where I evaluate two players closely regarded by the Mock Draft community based on a series of metrics that have proven to be predictive of future Dynasty success. After the evaluation, a winner is chosen between the two of whom you should be targeting in your Dynasty rookie drafts when both are on the board, and it is your pick.
This research is a precursor to my annual WR1 rankings, which forecast the future success of incoming rookie wide receiver prospects by incorporating 12 advanced metrics into a model. Each metric is weighted differently within the model and, when combined, gives each player a single score, the WR1 rating. To see last year’s WR1 rankings you may click here. This year’s pre-draft WR1 model rankings will be published in April, so stay tuned!
The two players I will be evaluating in this article are Ladd McConkey and Keon Coleman.
The NFL mock draft database currently has Ladd McConkey’s consensus NFL draft position at 45, while Keon Coleman is listed at 18.
Tale of the Tape
Early declare
Eleven of the top-12 players in the all-time WR1 rating scores were early declares. Only DeVonta Smith cracked this tier while playing through his senior season. 22 of the top 24 were also early declared. The players who declare early have received input from the NFL that they will be drafted early enough to warrant foregoing their senior season.
As such, this is one of the more influential inputs into the WR1 model.
Keon Coleman and Ladd McConkey are both early declares. This bodes well for each of them when compared to other prospects in the final WR1 model. For the head-to-head contest, it is a dead heat.
Breakout Year
Similar to the early declare metric, breakout year also had 11 of the top-12 players in the all-time WR1 score with a first or second-year breakout. The only exception again is DeVonta Smith. It was only Smith’s immense production his senior year that had him break the top-12 total WR1 score. Smith is the perfect measure of why this model is so accurate. Many analytic-based models did not have Smith as a top prospect because he failed several important metrics. However, the WR1 rating was one of the few that rated him (and Chris Olave) highly.
Once again, we have a tie. Coleman and McConkey both achieved their breakouts in their second year. To this point in the tale of the tape, McConkey and Coleman are neck and neck.
*Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt Per Game (RYPTPAPG). Best Season
10 of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects and 21 of the top-24 WR1 prospects had a best season RYPTPAPG above 3.0.
Coleman pulls into the overall lead. He slightly dispatches McConkey in the RYPTPAPG metric.
Neither of these marks is very impressive, however. Both McConkey and Coleman sit outside the top 20 prospects in this draft class in this metric. That is a red flag for both of them.
Weighted Dominator – Best Season
The weighted dominator metric is the player’s share of their team’s touchdowns and receiving yards weighted 80% receiving yards and 20% touchdowns. 11 of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects had a dominator above 30%.
Coleman bests McConkey once again in weighted dominator, opening up a two + lead in this tale of the tape.
However, once again, both marks are short of the threshold we look for in our elite prospects of 30%. Both marks rank outside of the top 10 prospects in this class.
Yards Per Route Run – Best Season
Yards per route run is one of the most predictive metrics for future Fantasy success. As such, it is weighted more significantly in the WR1 model formula than other metrics. 11 of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects had a best season YPRR above 3.0. This was one of the only metrics Puka Nacua shone in vs. his peers last year.
This was an eye-opening performance by McConkey. His 3.26 ranked fourth in this WR class, only behind blue-chip prospects Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Troy Franklin. This performance alone puts McConkey squarely into the crosshairs of my potential draft selections in Dynasty rookie drafts.
Meanwhile, Keon Coleman ranks 20th in this class- another red flag for Coleman.
McConkey obliterates Coleman in one of the most important metrics in evaluating prospects. McConkey pulls even with Coleman for the Tale of the Tape after this performance, wiping out Coleman’s earlier lead in other metrics.
Contested Target Rate – Last Season
This is a new input into the WR1 model this year, as it has proven to be a predictive metric to identify wide receiver busts.
*Click image for full tweet*
The contested target rate is the number of contested targets divided by a player’s total targets. This is, in essence, a way to measure how much separation a prospect is getting. The logic behind this being predictive of busts is that these players can bully their way to production in college. But in the NFL, with bigger, stronger, faster players, the contested catch prowess doesn’t hold up near as well as elite separators.
Ideally, you want to see this rate under 20%.
This is another big win for McConkey. McConkey had so much separation (see what I did there) from Coleman in the contested target rate metric that he gets two +’s.
Coleman’s 34.5% rate here is extraordinarily high and is such a major red flag he will make it onto my DO NOT DRAFT list. This is the worst in this class and one of the worst in my records for a prospect considered to go in the top two rounds of the NFL draft. This screams that he will be a bust and likely a touchdown-dependent type of player.
McConkey is on the complete opposite side of the spectrum here. His 13.9% contested target rate is excellent. You see it all over his tape as well. He is an elite separator with refined route-running skills. This will translate very well at the NFL level.
McConkey pulls into the overall lead in the Tale of the Tape contest vs. Coleman.
PFF Receiving Grade – Last Season
PFF has their graders charting every game of the NFL season. They then give these players grades based on their designated criteria. 11 of the top 12 players in the WR1 model had a PFF receiving grade above 85.0
McConkey once again posts a solid win in this metric over Coleman. His 81.8 receiving grade, while not meeting that elite 85.0 threshold, still represents a solid performance.
Coleman only posted a 70.6, which is the second lowest grade of the top 20 receiving prospects in this class.
McConkey pulls into the clear lead over Coleman in the head-to-head tale of the tape now.
Career Fantasy Points Per Game
This metric measures the prospect’s 1 point per reception, 1 point per 10 yards receiving fantasy scoring on a points-per-game basis in their college career. This is ultimately the exact metric you want to be mirrored for their NFL Careers.
Nine of the top twelve prospects in the WR1 model all-time had a PPR PPG above 17.0.
This was a very close race, with Coleman slightly edging out McConkey. It was not a significant win, but Coleman gets the + for this category.
Summary
Coleman is widely considered by both the NFL and early Dynasty consensus as the better selection.
I am fairly confident, for fantasy, that McConkey will end up being the better selection and, without question, the better value.
Coleman carries major bust potential due to his incredibly high contested target rate, showing he gets minimal separation.
The highlight of McConkey’s profile was his 3.26 yards per route run performance, which is one of the most predictive metrics for future Fantasy success.
In summary, you should be fading Coleman at his ADP in rookie drafts and raising McConkey vs his ADP. I would take McConkey straight up between the two.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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