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Dynasty Data Trendz: Week 5

Dynasty / By /

Fantasy point production is not always the best predictor of future fantasy point production. One blown coverage or short touchdown can instantly make a player’s otherwise pedestrian week look great for fantasy..

This is where usage trends come in. A player’s usage is a better predictor of what kind of future fantasy production we should expect. You can use this to target Dynasty owners who may be otherwise disenchanted with a low macro fantasy output, while you know the underlying factors are healthy. On the other hand, you can also utilize usage trends to see which players may have a concerning trend relative to their historical valuation that you may want to consider trading.

*Data Sources: DFF Data Factory, PFF, Fantasy Pros, NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats*

Run your own custom reports in the DFF Data Factory within the Control Room app. Receiving yards per team pass attempt is a good way to measure a player’s efficiency within their offense.  The above chart lists the top eight in RYPTPA.

1. Zay Flowers is a player I am aggressively targeting in trade offers. He is WR11 in Dynasty Community value on Keep Trade Cut. He will cost you about a mid-first. But he is still obtainable because he has played most of this season injured. His Dynasty managers haven’t seen the end result of huge fantasy points, but in reality he is producing that way in his limited time. You can see in the chart above he is even out-producing the far more expensive Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The newest factor depressing his fantasy value is the absence of Lamar Jackson. This makes the trade window wide open.  Fire out some offers this week before it is too late.

2. Similarly, Drake London has been electric since the return of Michael Penix. He has nearly doubled his target share and fantasy points per game since Penix took over the reins. 

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travis kelce

Dynasty Data Trendz: Week 3

Dynasty / By /

5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been putting up historic target share numbers. But Brock Bowers said, “Not so fast”.  Klint Kubiak installed the Seattle offense that turned JSN into a target funnel. Now he appears to be doing the same with Bowers.

6. Travis Kelce seems to be rejuvenated by his off-season marriage to Taylor Swift. He is off to a great start, ranking 8th among all pass catchers in yards per route run. 

7. In last week’s column, I highlighted these two players as buys with the statements below:

Ted Hurst: “Ted Hurst seems primed for a week 3 breakout. He has little to show for surface stats with just 5 receptions for 63 yards through two games. But he only trails Egbuka by 1 target for the team lead with 10. The Bucs go up against the 28th-ranked Vikings pass defense next week. Per Fantasy Points Data, he boasts an excellent 17.9% route win rate. He is getting open and getting targets. The chemistry with Mayfield is still developing. “

Marcus Mariota: That brings us to Marcus Mariota. If you are going to empty your FAAB and need a multi-week starter, I’d go with Mariota. In his 7 full starts in 2025, he averaged 17 fantasy points per game. “

Hurst had his best fantasy production of the young season with 11 fantasy points, while Mariota put up 20 of his own in an upset win over one of the best defenses in the NFL, Seattle.

8. Jeremiyah Love had the best game of his young career. He excelled in every metric I evaluated for my annual RB1 model, but his most exciting trait for fantasy was his receiving ability. I wrote in the RB1 model article.

“The most exciting aspect of his repertoire is his receiving acumen. Receiving, not rushing, is what makes a running back a perennial top fantasy asset. Think Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, and De’Von Achane. And boy, is Love a great receiving back. He may be the second-best slot receiver in this draft to Makai Lemon. 

Love led all running backs in this class in yards per route run at 1.6, good for 10 points towards his overall model score. He also excelled in receiving yards and receptions per game. The receiving categories contributed 32 points towards his overall RB1 model score.”

Week 3 was the first game to really showcase his receiving prowess with 5 receptions for 19 yards and a TD.

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mariota

Dynasty Data Trendz: Week 2

Dynasty / By /

Fantasy point production is not always the best predictor of future fantasy point production. One blown coverage or short touchdown can instantly make a player’s otherwise pedestrian week look great for fantasy..

This is where usage trends come in. A player’s usage is a better predictor of what kind of future fantasy production we should expect. You can use this to target Dynasty owners who may be otherwise disenchanted with a low macro fantasy output, while you know the underlying factors are healthy. On the other hand, you can also utilize usage trends to see which players may have a concerning trend relative to their historical valuation that you may want to consider trading.

*Data Sources: PFF, Fantasy Pros, NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats*

1. Bryce Young Fantasy PPG by year

2023 – 10.4
2024 – 14.6
2025 – 14.3
2026 – 32.4  !!!!!

2. Target Share Leaders through Week 2

Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 44.0%
Parker Washington – 36.7%
Justin Jefferson – 35.7%
Amon-Ra St. Brown – 35.1%
DeVonta Smith – 33.9%
Davante Adams – 28.1%
CeeDee Lamb – 27.9%
Christian Watson – 27.5%
Chris Olave – 27.4%
Jalen Coker – 27.3%
Tetairoa McMillan – 27.3%

3. Could we see the first-ever 40% target share season from JSN this year? He currently sits at a staggering 44%.

4. From a Dynasty buy standpoint, Christian Watson is very interesting. Watson has always been a premier yards-per-route, run performer. However, he has never been a premier target earner. When you combine those two, you get a WR1. He is priced as the WR27 by the Dynasty community on Keep Trade Cut. 

5. I wrote this in last week’s article: “I would be buying Stefon Diggs as a contender. He is probably the best option you can get for a 3rd that will be a reliable starter. Jayden Daniels was running for his life. Diggs is a reliable quick outlet, whereas McLaurin is a downfield threat.” Diggs obliged with a stout 21.7 fantasy points in Week 2.

6. In case you had any reservations about Parker Washington. Remove them. He is 100% the real deal, Holyfield.

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Kalif Raymond

Dynasty Data Trendz: Week 1

All Access, Dynasty / By /

Fantasy point production is not always the best predictor of future fantasy point production. One blown coverage or short touchdown can instantly make a player’s otherwise pedestrian week look great for fantasy. This is where usage trends come in. A player’s usage is a better predictor of what kind of future fantasy production we should expect. You can use this to target Dynasty owners who may be otherwise disenchanted with a low macro fantasy output, while you know the underlying factors are healthy. On the other hand, you can also utilize usage trends to see which players may have a concerning trend relative to their historical valuation that you may want to consider trading.

Dynasty Data Trendz: Week 1 Read More »

stribling

Preseason in a Nutshell: Rapid Fire Style

Dynasty / By /

Let’s be honest: We are all busy. We can’t watch every preseason snap, coaches’ press conferences, or injury post on X. For all those who love fantasy football but aren’t complete degenerates like us, this article is for you: Concise nuggets of fantasy-relevant news in an easy-to-digest format.

Here I will wrap up the whole preseason in a neat, tidy article.

1. Kyler Murray is the Vikings’ starting QB. The KOC-era Vikings are perennially one of the top passing teams in the league. Murray is a Konami QB with the rushing upside fantasy managers want. You want him on your roster this year.

2. Jahan Dotson is in line to be the Falcons WR2. He played 100% of the snaps with the starters in their first preseason game.

3. Luther Burden was taking souls in practice. Ben Johnson stated he is destined to be one of the NFL’s best receivers.  He has the work ethic and desire to be the best.  The hype was palpable. Then he got injured. X was abuzz, waiting for an update. There were talks of tendon tears. Then we got notice it was a groin injury, and he may only miss a couple of games.

4. The Jaguars running back room looks like a gross timeshare that you don’t want a part of for fantasy. In practice, it has often been Bhaysul Tuten on 1st and 2nd downs, Lequint Allen on 3rd down. Then, when they get inside the 10, Chris Rodriguez has been seeing the bulk of the carries.

5. Staying in Jacksonville, Parker Washington has continued his momentum from last year and has been the most targeted wide receiver in camp.

6. Jayden Higgins was having a great camp. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL and is now gone for the season.

7. The Cleveland QB battle was a real battle. Todd Monken has not named who the starting QB will be between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders.  Either way, you do not want either of these starting on your Dynasty roster.

8. Caleb Douglas and Malik Washington appear to have separated themselves from the pack as the top 2 wide receivers for Miami based on pre-season usage with the starters.

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warren

Definitive Dynasty Rankings 41-50

Dynasty / By /

Those who follow my work know I approach all of my rankings from an analytical foundation and then layer in additional context on top of that. This series is no different. The foundation of my Dynasty rankings is a proprietary model that utilizes a combination of predictive metrics with an emphasis on prior-season fantasy points per game and then combines that with a position-specific age multiplier, flattening of TD luck, and position adjustment. This is the Dynasty 1 Score. From there, I layer on situational adjustments that pure statistics can not identify. I also prioritize consistency in my rankings. How likely are the players to be able to repeat their prior season performances based on their archetype?

Rankings are always fluid, and at DFF, we update them continuously here. These are a snapshot, with the thought process behind each that you don’t see in simple rankings.

These ranks are a snapshot as of January 2026. Superflex, Full PPR, TE Premium

*Data sources: PFF, Pro Football Reference, Player Profiler, NFL+ Premium

The rest of this rankings article series will be posted over the coming weeks.

2026 Dynasty Rankings Player Writeups:

1 to 10
11 to 20
21 to 30

2026 Tight End Triumvirate Tier

Before the 2026 NFL Draft, I wrote this article on the historically good tight end triumvirate class we had between Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, and Harold Fannin. The NFL didn’t agree at the time, drafting Fannin as the 6th tight end in the 2025 draft. 

Fast forward to the dawn of the 2026-27 season, and Fannin is back squarely in that conversation of the big 3 of the 2025 class.

41. Colston Loveland (TE – CHI)

DOB: 4/9/2004 (22)

2025 Fantasy Points Per Game – 10.3
Dynasty1 score – 12.4
Dynasty Community Rank – 28 (Per KeepTradeCut)

Loveland kicks off this tier of 2025 drafted tight ends. At Michigan, he was the dominant offensive force for the Wolverines, accounting for 34.7% of their yardage plus touchdown share. Unlike his 2025 drafted peers, Loveland started slow. 

Through week 8, he had 11 receptions for 116 yards. After that, he had 47 receptions for 597 yards. He capped the season off in fashion with 12 receptions for 193 receiving yards in 2 playoff games. 

42. Tyler Warren (TE – IND)

DOB: 5/4/2002 (24)

2025 Fantasy Points Per Game – 11.1
Dynasty1 score – 13.3
Dynasty Community Rank – 35 (Per KeepTradeCut)

Warren started 2025 with a bang after being drafted 14th overall. He amassed 104 receptions for 1233 yards his Senior year at Penn St. He was an instant producer for the Colts the moment he stepped onto the field. Then Daniel Jones got hurt, and it all fell apart for him.

In 12 games with Daniel Jones, Warren averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game.

In 5 games without Daniel Jones, Warren averaged 6.3 fantasy points per game.

Entering 2026, Michael Pittman is gone, Alec Pierce is hurt, and Daniel Jones is back and healthy. I look for Warren to be much closer to the player we saw the first 12 games of last year.

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hurts

The Definitive Dynasty Rankings Guide: 11 to 20

Dynasty, Ranking / By /

Published July 2026 Welcome to players 11 to 20 in my Dynasty rankings series. Players 10 to 1 can be found here. Players 21 to 30 can be found here. Those who follow my work know I approach all of my rankings from an analytical foundation and then layer in additional context on top of that. This series is no different. The foundation of my Dynasty rankings is a proprietary model that utilizes a combination of predictive metrics with an emphasis on prior season fantasy points per game and then combines that with a position-specific age multiplier, flattening of TD luck, and position adjustment. This is the Dynasty 1 Score. From there, I layer on situational adjustments that pure statistics can not identify. I also prioritize consistency in my rankings. How likely are the players to be able to repeat their prior season performances based on their archetype? With that introduction, let me introduce you to my Dynasty rankings series. Note these are a snapshot in time vs. the always-evolving rankings you can find on our rankings site. But in this article series, you get the context and thinking behind the ranking that is not supplied by the pure ranking. Rankings are always fluid, and at DFF, we update them continuously here. These are a snapshot with the thought process behind each that you don’t see in simple rankings. These ranks are a snapshot as of January 2026. Superflex, Full PPR, TE Premium *Data sources: PFF, Pro Football Reference, Player Profiler, NFL+ Premium The rest of this rankings article series […]

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koziol

Late Round Dynasty Rookie Draft Gems

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Eli Heidenreich is an off-the-radar player from Navy who played in one of the most unique offensive systems in college football, notorious for amplifying a singular player’s productivity. 

Heidenreich has some eye-popping analytics. Yards per route run is one of the strongest singular predictors of future fantasy production. On its own, YPRR carries a 0.43 correlation when using current-year data to project next year’s performance. Heidenreich’s 4.73 yards per route run is easily tops in this class, well above the wide receivers who were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. 

His draft capital was poor. But he was drafted. And his Pittsburgh landing spot was pretty solid. Kenneth Gainwell was the RB 20 overall in fantasy points per game last year.  Heidenreich has a shot at a similar role eventually.

Steelers beat writer, Mark Kaboly, posted on X, “ I am not saying that Eli Heidenreich should even be mentioned in the same breath as Christian McCaffrey because C-Mac is elite and a different breed … but you can’t help but notice similarities in how they move around a football field. (yeah, this is going to be taken out of context, oh well).”

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stewart

“Colossus Jr.” 2026 Final Rookie RB1 Analytical Model Rankings

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

After years of proven success with my WR1 Analytical Model outperforming NFL Draft Capital at predicting future fantasy success of rookie wide receiver prospects, I unveiled the RB1 Analytical Model last year.  Similar to my long-running WR1 model, which you can find here, this RB1 model was developed using a recipe of the most predictive advanced college statistics that prior NFL fantasy superstars exhibited. 

The goal of these analytical models is to outperform draft capital, as it should. After all, fantasy managers are trying to accumulate the most fantasy points. NFL teams are trying to win football games. For example, in 2024, Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy were drafted 6th and 12th in the NFL draft among running backs. The model ranked them 4th and 6th, respectively. 

You can find last year’s 2025 RB1 post-draft published model here. Our model was largely in line with draft capital, with 7 of the first 8 players selected in the NFL draft also in the model’s top 7. A big outlier came a little later. Our model ranked Jacory Croskey-Merritt 11th overall, despite the NFL drafting him 26th among all running backs. 

Now on to the 2026 class. 

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mcgowan

2026 Dynasty Rookie RB1 Analytical Model: Rankings 5 to 1

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

After years of proven success with my WR1 Analytical Model outperforming NFL Draft Capital at predicting future fantasy success of rookie wide receiver prospects, I unveiled the RB1 Analytical Model last year.  Similar to my long-running WR1 model, which you can find here, this RB1 model was developed using a recipe of the most predictive advanced college statistics that prior NFL fantasy superstars exhibited. 

The goal of these analytical models is to outperform draft capital, as it should. After all, fantasy managers are trying to accumulate the most fantasy points. NFL teams are trying to win football games. For example, in 2024, Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy were drafted 6th and 12th in the NFL draft among running backs. The model ranked them 4th and 6th, respectively. 

You can find last year’s 2025 RB1 post-draft published model here. Our model was largely in line with draft capital, with 7 of the first 8 players selected in the NFL draft also in the model’s top 7. A big outlier came a little later. Our model ranked Jacory Croskey-Merritt 11th overall, despite the NFL drafting him 26th among all running backs. 

Now on to the 2026 class. 

This 2026 running back draft class isn’t good. It isn’t bad. No. It is downright atrocious. In these model series, I can typically find 15 “draftable” running backs and wide receivers with ease. Last year, 26 running backs were drafted. This year, even with a terrible overall 2026 class, I don’t have 15 running backs with a “draft-worthy” grade.

You can find the rankings for players 15 to 11 here. 

You can find the rankings for players 10 to 6 here. 

5. Emmett Johnson, Nebraska | RB1 Model Score: 38.0

Based on historical comps, Emmett Johnson’s RB1 Model score of 38.0 gives him a 34.1% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.

Historical Players With Similar RB1 Model Scores:

emmett johnson

The Good

Outside of Jeremiyah Love, Emmett Johnson seems the most likely to secure a role for an NFL team. Why? He is an excellent receiving back. He led all running backs in this class with 30.8 receiving yards per game and 3.8 receptions per game. This earned him 25 points towards his overall RB1 score. 

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Denzel Boston

2026 Rookie WR1 Analytical Model, Version 1.0: Rankings 5 to 1

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

The Prospect Analytical Model Rankings are one of our members’ favorite series each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Years of refining and enhancing the models to accurately predict future fantasy value have brought us to today.  These WR1 model rankings are your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career.  You can find the wide receivers ranked 15 to 11 in the WR1 model here. You can find the wide receivers ranked 10 to 6 here. You can find the running back RB1 model here. For those new to the WR1 rating, it is a proprietary formula I developed in 2019 that provides a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are many advanced metrics available today; we at DFF know it can be difficult to determine which ones matter and how much each matters. The WR1 model distills all that hard work into a single, easy-to-understand number. The model evaluates rookies across 13 of the most predictive metrics and combines their individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating. It was a pioneer in the fantasy analysis industry, being the first to incorporate a film-grade into the model. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on the prospect’s model score, I provide their probability of achieving at least one top-24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season, using historical prospects with similar score ranges. The WR1 model consistently outperforms NFL draft capital […]

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Adam Randall

2026 RB1 Analytical Model Rookie Rankings: Running Backs 10 to 6

Dynasty, Ranking, Rookie / By /

After years of proven success with my WR1 Analytical Model outperforming NFL Draft Capital at predicting future fantasy success of rookie wide receiver prospects, I unveiled the RB1 Analytical Model last year.  Similar to my long-running WR1 model, which you can find here, this RB1 model was developed using a recipe of the most predictive advanced college statistics that prior NFL fantasy superstars exhibited.  The goal of these analytical models is to outperform draft capital, as it should. After all, fantasy managers are trying to accumulate the most fantasy points. NFL teams are trying to win football games. For example, in 2024, Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy were drafted 6th and 12th in the NFL draft among running backs. The model ranked them 4th and 6th, respectively.  You can find last year’s 2025 RB1 post-draft published model here. Our model was largely in line with draft capital, with seven of the first eight players selected in the NFL draft also in the model’s top 7. A big outlier came a little later. Our model ranked Jacory Croskey-Merritt 11th overall, despite the NFL drafting him 26th among all running backs.  Now on to the 2026 class.  This 2026 running back draft class isn’t good. It isn’t bad. No. It is downright atrocious. In these model series, I can typically find 15 “draftable” running backs and wide receivers with ease. Last year, 26 running backs were drafted. This year, even with a terrible overall 2026 class, I don’t have 15 running backs with a “draft-worthy” grade. You can find the rankings for […]

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bell

2026 Rookie WR1 Analytical Model, Version 1.0: Rankings 10 to 6

Dynasty, Ranking, Rookie / By /

The Prospect Analytical Model Rankings are one of our members’ favorite series each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Years of refining and enhancing the models to accurately predict future fantasy value have brought us to today. 

These WR1 model rankings are your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career. 

You can find the wide receivers ranked 15 to 11 in the WR1 model here.

You can find the running back RB1 model here.

For those new to the WR1 rating, it is a proprietary formula I developed in 2019 that provides a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are many advanced metrics available today; we at DFF know it can be difficult to determine which ones matter and how much each matters. The WR1 model distills all that hard work into a single, easy-to-understand number. The model evaluates rookies across 13 of the most predictive metrics and combines their individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating. It was a pioneer in the fantasy analysis industry, being the first to incorporate a film-grade into the model. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on the prospect’s model score, I provide their probability of achieving at least one top-24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season, using historical prospects with similar score ranges.

The WR1 model consistently outperforms NFL draft capital in predicting the future fantasy success of incoming prospects. For a full breakdown of the model’s past performance, click this link. You can also find the 2025 model here and the 2024 model here, where we were one of the very few publications to have Malik Nabers as the top wide receiver overall instead of Marvin Harrison Jr. Even the NFL had Harrison higher, as Nabers was drafted behind Harrison in the NFL Draft. Here is the WR1 model I published in 2023, featuring Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the WR1. The WR1 model is exceptional at identifying the true elite wide receivers. 17 of the 20 top-scoring prospects with at least three years in the NFL have had a top-24 PPR PPG NFL fantasy season.

Fourteen of the 20 have also had a top-12 PPR PPG NFL fantasy season. Nine have had multiple top 12 seasons, including perennial top-5 studs like Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham Jr., Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson.

So let’s dive into the 2026 class overall WR1 Model Score.

10. Chris Bell, Louisville | WR1 Model Score: 24.0

Based on historical comps, Chris Bell’s WR1 Model score of 24.0 gives him an 35.8% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.

Historical Players With Similar WR1 Model Scores:

Adonai Mitchell
Malik Washington
Kyle Williams

The Good

Bell posted a very impressive weighted dominator (team share of receiving yards and touchdowns) of 38.2%. This ranked 3rd among wide receivers in this draft class. Louisville was not a prolific passing offense

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