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Dominating Your Rookie Draft: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

The Rookie 1.01 Draft pick always holds a premium in dynasty fantasy football. Rookie draft picks also vary in value based on the current time of the year that we are in. In the second part of this article, we are going to explore how to dominate the 2021 Rookie Drafts and revisit the value of how rookie pick values change at different parts of the season.

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Dominating Your Rookie Draft: Rookie Pick Value and Tiers

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

There is no time when a draft pick is more valuable than when it is on the clock in your rookie draft. You have the power to select your favorite rookie prospect, but you also have the opportunity to trade the rights to the pick for what you view as more value to a league mate. By the time rookie drafts roll around, the ADP is more or less settled and we are targeting our favorite prospects within their given tier. Being right on one player versus another player is very important, but being in the situation to control your draft is even more crucial to success in your fantasy leagues.

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Navigating Your Rookie Draft: Late Round Dart Throws

Dynasty / By /

Over the past two years, players that have been drafted after the second round of the rookie draft picks have not had a high success rate. For this exercise, we are going to view success as defined as holding a current ADP in Superflex startup drafts inside the top 200. Within the top 200 feels like a solid spot for an arbitrary cut-off because that can include players who may not have had a successful fantasy finish, yet but they still hold value since their rookie draft took place.

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Jonnu Smith Signs With New England

Dynasty / By /

In college Jonnu Smith broke out as a true freshman for FIU with 388 yards and two TDs, earning a dominator rating of 23.8%. A 710 yard and eight TD sophomore season was Smith’s most productive, as he earned a 42.6% dominator rating. However, injuries slowed down Smith in the latter half of his collegiate career. Smith was a piece of the 2016 Jared Goff trade that landed the Titans a litany of draft capital. Smith was selected in the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft by the Tennessee Titans at the 100th overall pick. In his four seasons with the Titans, Smith amassed 114 catches for 1,302 yards and 16 TDs. He is coming off his most productive season in which he turned 65 targets into 41 catches, 448 yards, and eight TDs along with one rushing TD. He finished as the TE20 in fantasy football, underperforming based on his TE16 dynasty ADP.

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pitts te vs wr

Kyle Pitts’ Valuation: Tight End vs. Wide Receiver

Dynasty / By /

The year was 2014, amongst many other discrepancies in the world, Jimmy Graham changed his Twitter bio to inform the world that he was a wide receiver, not a tight end. An NFL arbitrator had to step in and rule on this case. Why is this important? Because Jimmy Graham was franchised tagged by the New Orleans Saints and wanted to be designated as a wide receiver rather than a tight end. Graham lined up split out on 67% of the Saints snaps the previous season. If Graham had been designated as a wide receiver, he would have made 71% more money on his franchise tender than as a tight end. The NFL arbitrator ruled that Graham was a tight end, saving Mickey Loomis millions of dollars.

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Pro Day Round-Up

Dynasty / By /

Today is March 11, 2021, this is important because we are less than a week away from Free Agency. On March 17th we will likely find out where players such as JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kenny Golladay, Aaron Jones, Will Fuller, Curtis Samuel, Corey Davis, Todd Gurley, Marvin Jones Jr., Kenyan Drake, T.Y. Hilton, A.J. Green, and Hunter Henry will land. There are 43 days until the NFL Draft, and in most years we would have the NFL Combine to overreact to, however, as you know the NFL Combine was canceled due to the pandemic. Although we do not get to see all of the relevant players get their testing measurables in the same conditions, we still will get good data from the school’s Pro-Days. 

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Garrett Wilson: 2021 Devy Profile

Devy / By /

In his true freshman season, Wilson caught 26 passes for 385 yards and five TDs. Within the context of the Ohio State offense, he accounted for 11.4% of their receiving yardage and 10.6% of their receiving scoring. This equates to an 11.0% dominator rating and an 11.3% adjusted dominator rating. Wilson also averaged 1.07 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout.

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Chris Olave: 2021 Devy Profile

Devy / By /

In his true freshman season, Olave caught 12 passes for 197 yards and three TDs. Within the context of the Ohio State offense, he accounted for 3.9% of their receiving yardage and 6% of their receiving scoring. This equates to a 5% dominator rating and a 4.3% adjusted dominator rating. Olave also averaged 0.36 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout. His yards per catch average was 17.6, where above 16 is a statistically significant indicator for an NFL player’s deep-threat ability. The 2018 Ohio State team also had Terry McLaurin, Parris Campbell, K.J. Hill, and J.K. Dobbins, all current NFL players, with who Olave was competing for targets.

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George Pickens: 2021 Devy Profile

Devy / By /

In his true freshman season, Pickens caught 37 passes for 552 yards and seven TDs. Within the context of the Georgia offense, he accounted for 19.2% of their receiving yardage and 30.4% of their receiving scoring. This equates to a 24.8% dominator rating and a 21.5% adjusted dominator rating. Pickens also averaged 1.43 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout, within the context of the season one could argue that he did break out.

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draft stock week 15

February DFF Devy Mock Draft: Round 1

Mock Drafts / By /

We composed a four-person mock draft at DFF to start collecting devy rank data. For some people, a devy-only draft will be coming up soon, while for others the only draft of the season will be a blended rookie and devy draft after the NFL Draft takes place. We will go over how to value devy players versus rookie players later in this offseason, but for now, let’s dive into the devy debates.

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The Hybrid Startup Strategy and Results

Strategy Content / By /

Here at DFF, we completed a startup dynasty league draft with a unique format that few had tried before. But few will willingly go back to a standard snake draft after experiencing the thrill of the hybrid setup. This was a shallow, 12-team league including a Superflex starting roster and tight end premium scoring. The unique format of this draft is that we started with a partial auction, then rounded out the rosters with the standard snake-style.

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2021 devy profile

David Bell: 2021 Devy Profile

Devy / By /

As a true freshman, David Bell achieved a breakout season. In 2019, Bell caught 86 passes for 1,035 yards and seven TDs. He also added another score on the ground, amassing 1,047 yards from scrimmage and eight offensive TDs. In the context of the Purdue passing attack, Bell produced 27.8% of the team’s receiving yardage and 24.1% of the team’s receiving scoring. These figures equate to a 26.0% dominator rating and a 27.1% adjusted dominator rating, both qualifying him for a breakout age of 18.8 years old. Bell’s 1.99 yards per team pass attempt fell just short of the 2.0 threshold that we like to see in wide receiver prospects.

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DFF Devy Top Five Positions: 2022 Quarterbacks

Devy / By /

Spencer Rattler was the QB1 and 11th overall prospect coming out of high school. The five-star Arizona native chose to play for Lincoln Riley in Oklahoma. After sitting out for the 2019 season behind Jalen Hurts, Rattler was allowed to start during his redshirt freshman season in 2020. The 6’1” 205 lbs. quarterback is still developing, but we expect to see him drafted early in the 2022 NFL Draft.

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Breece Hall: 2021 Devy Profile

Devy / By /

As a freshman, Breece Hall earned the Iowa State starting running back job. He ran for 897 yards and nine TDs on a 4.9 yards per carry average. He also showed off his pass-catching abilities with 19 catches for 207 yards and one TD. As a true freshman he accounted for 19% of the team yardage, and 19% of their touchdown production. Thus, he earned a 19% dominator rating, qualifying for a true freshman breakout at age 18.7 years old. 

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Jahmyr Gibbs: 2021 Devy Profile

Devy / By /

Jahmyr Gibbs produced early and often for the Yellow Jackets. In his first collegiate game, Gibbs had 126 yards from scrimmage and scored a TD both on the ground and in the air. He also returned two kickoffs for 93 yards. It was clear that the Georgia Tech offense was centered around getting Gibbs the ball in space. Gibbs rushed for 460 yards and four TDs on his 89 attempts. He had 5.2 yards per rush against the ACC defenders. Gibbs showed that he is an elite pass catcher in his freshman season. He caught 24 passes for 303 yards and three TDs.

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Tank Bigsby: 2021 Devy Profile

Devy / By /

Bigsby went viral in his third collegiate game when he had 146 yards on 20 carries. He became the Tigers workhorse back, despite their anemic Bo Nix-led offense. Bigsby battled injuries throughout the season, otherwise, his freshman stats would be even more impressive. Bigsby rushed for 834 yards and five TDs on his 138 attempts. He had an impressive 6.0 yards per rush against the daunting defenses of the SEC. Bigsby showed that he is a capable pass catcher, but not to the extent of being able to play outside in his freshman season. He caught 11 passes for 84 yards.

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Bijan Robinson: 2021 Devy Profile

Devy / By /

As a freshman, Bijan Robinson played in nine games, he was not utilized early in the season but took over as the primary ball carrier by the end of the season. He only rushed the ball 86 times, but he was efficient with his touches. Robinson finished with 703 yards on the ground for an average of 8.2 per rush. He found the endzone four times on the ground. Robinson proved to be a capable pass catcher with 15 catches. He turned those catches into 196 yards and two more TDs. Robinson had a dominator rating of 15% and an adjusted dominator rating of 17%, both qualifying him for a true freshman breakout at the age of 18.7 years old.

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Navigating your Rookie Draft: 2021 Quarterbacks

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

There has been a meteoric rise in the number of dynasty leagues that are either starting up as Superflex leagues or transitioning to Superflex leagues, it is the way to go. Now there will always be a nostalgic place for one quarterback leagues for fantasy football players, but devaluing the most important position in football, arguably in all of sports does not hold much value anymore.

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DFF Redraft Championship: Early Season Review

All Access / By /

After two weeks @DFF_JoeMem is leading the pack at 2-0 and 65.7 points ahead of @BombadilFantasy who is currently in second place. Joe picked from the 10th spot in the draft. His strategy to fade quarterback and tight end in favor of loading up on top tier running backs and wide receivers the first five rounds has certainly paid off early on. Gardner Minshew has been getting the start for the “New York Joes” showing you just how easy it is to find a startable quarterback in 1QB leagues. He’s avoided the injury bug thus far so we’ll see how he fairs the rest of season.

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