The football world got some shocking news early Wednesday afternoon when it was announced the Broncos would be benching Russell Wilson for the season’s final two games.
*Click image for full tweet and video
It didn’t quite pass the smell test. The Broncos were still mathematically alive (under a 2% chance) for a playoff spot. Why bench Wilson? For all intents and purposes, he had a better-than-expected season, and the Broncos couldn’t possibly move on from him next year with $85 million in dead cap.
Things escalated faster than a Tyreek Hill go route from there.
Dianna Russini broke the news that the Broncos were expected to cut Wilson in March.
*Click image for full tweet
What?????
He has an $85 million dead cap hit. How could Denver possibly move on from him?
This is when I started to go down a rabbit hole in the fine print of Russell Wilson‘s contract language. I promise not to take you down that hole with me. I will do my best to explain how it is not $85 million in lay terms. This is how his contract is laid out, per Spotrac, my go-to site for anything NFL contract-related.
Injury Guarantee
The first part to understand is, per Russini, “Wilson has $37 million in injury guarantees for 2025 that will become guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2024 league year in March. Lawyers, including some with the NFLPA, were involved, and no changes were made to the contract. The Broncos reached out to Wilson’s representatives in late October. They explained that Wilson would lose the starting job and be made inactive for the rest of the season if he did not defer the injury guarantee trigger date that he has for 2025, per multiple league sources.”
Wow. So, this drama has been going on for three months internally. That is some next-level compartmentalization by Wilson and the Bronco’s organization as Denver ripped off five straight wins during this stretch. This was far exceeding the expectations most had that was only able to muster five wins the entire 2022 season.
The evidence certainly points to this benching being financially motivated despite what you might hear from the Denver organization. If Wilson got injured and could not pass his physical in March, Wilson’s $37 million in 2025 would be guaranteed.
Cap Hit Breakdown
Now, back to the $85 million dead cap hit.
This is where the post-June 1st designation comes into play. A team can release two players yearly using this designation before June 2nd. The team must carry a player’s full cap number until June 2nd, even if that player is no longer on the roster. The player’s salary comes off the books at that time unless it is guaranteed.
If Denver uses this designation while also picking up $4.4 million of option bonus proration, then Wilson’s cap hit only equals the $35.4 million as listed in the table from Spotrac above for 2024. Denver is still on the hook for the $49.6 million in dead cap for 2025. After 2025, Denver would no longer have any cap charges for Wilson.
Denver was surprisingly competitive this season. A $35.4 and $49.6 million cap hit are significant, but Sean Payton clearly has confidence he can be competitive with a far cheaper signal caller.
This will likely come in either the 2024 or 2025 draft. The third year of a QB’s career is often considered the sweet spot to compete for a Superbowl. They are still on that cheap rookie contract while they have the experience necessary to compete at the highest level. This would align with clearing Wilson’s dead cap completely off the books. Denver could add the needed complementary pieces around the affordable rookie quarterback to make a title run.
Time to Draft a QB?
Denver currently sits at pick 14 in the 2024 NFL draft. They have the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers remaining on the schedule. Both teams have a better draft pick currently than Denver. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye will be long gone before Denver picks, barring any trade. However, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Michael Penix, and J.J. McCarthy are each thought to be mid-1st to 2nd-round prospects that Denver could consider.
Bronco fans will likely need to be patient in this newest rebuild. It can hurt to bite a bullet like this. But often, in the long run, it’s best for the team to perform a hard reset vs. continuing in mediocrity.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
Click here for a 12-month DFF Membership.
