In dynasty, the WR position is constantly in flux. It changes like the wind. One week, CeeDee Lamb isn’t even a top-five dynasty WR, and the next, he’s knocking on Chase and Jefferson’s door, asking if there’s room for one more in the top tier. With that in mind, it’s important to do some of your own evaluating so that you aren’t constantly blown to and fro by the increasingly volatile market.
Rookies are especially difficult to evaluate for two reasons.
- Each individual game is a huge percentage of the overall sample, leading to more weekly volatility.
- There is an “anchoring” effect with rookies in dynasty. Basically, a player’s initial cost has a kind of gravitational pull, which often leaves their value higher or lower than it would be in a vacuum.
Twelve weeks into the season, it’s time to revisit the 2023 rookie WR class to see how the landscape has shifted. In this piece, I’ll break down each of my top ten rookie WRs.
1. Tank Dell, Houston Texans
My top-ranked rookie WR is one that I largely overlooked during the draft process. In my defense, though, he is fairly easy to look over at 5’10” and 165 lbs. Tank Dell has exploded onto the scene, scoring 16.5 PPG in his first eleven games despite running limited routes to start the year. He’s already proven himself to be an incredible talent, and being tethered to C.J. Stroud for the foreseeable future certainly doesn’t hurt either.
Key stat: Since his route share increased in Week 8, Tank Dell has a 26% target share.
2. Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
I play in over a dozen dynasty leagues and consume dynasty content all year round, but I hardly knew the name Puka Nacua before Week 1. Now, he’s impossible to ignore. He isn’t a fluke or a flash in the pan. Since stepping onto an NFL field, Puka has been a dominant target earner for the Rams. Even with his recent struggles (which I attribute more to the offense), Puka ranks top twelve among all WRs in YPRR, TPRR, and PPG this season.
Key stat: Puka has recorded a 20% target share or higher in EVERY game this season.
–Tier Break–
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba hasn’t gotten off to the most impressive start in the NFL, especially relative to expectations. However, players with this level of pedigree deserve some benefit of the doubt. He is competing with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for routes and targets, after all.
Ultimately, his placement on this list is about upside. The next few names–Flowers, Addison, Downs–are safer assets to hold; they have a more proven floor. But outside of Puka and Dell, I believe JSN still has the best chance to become a true difference-making WR.
Key stat: Out of 14 rookies with 30 or more targets this season, JSN ranks 11th in YPRR and 13th in aDOT.
4. Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
Outside of Puka Nacua, no rookie WR had a stronger start to the year than Zay Flowers. He saw an absurd 50% of Baltimore’s target in the opening game of the season and at least 24% in four of the next five. He isn’t shattering records, but he has done more than enough to warrant confidence in his future production.
Key stat: Zay Flowers has recorded a 24% target share or higher in eight of twelve games this season.
5. Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
Jordan Addison ranks third among all rookie WRs in fantasy points and yards per game. That’s a great sign for his future outlook, but there are two important factors to keep in mind.
1. Justin Jefferson hasn’t played since Week 5.
2. The Vikings rank fourth in pass attempts per game.
I have no doubt that Addison will be a valuable fantasy asset for years to come, but I don’t see league-winning potential here.
Key stat: Jordan Addison ranks first among all rookie WRs in routes per game but eighth in TPRR.
6. Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts
Despite an impressive college profile, Josh Downs fell to the third round of the NFL Draft. That price looks like a steal at this point, though, as Downs has already become a focal point of the Colts’ passing attack. He is currently on pace for 112 targets this season, and he’s made a number of impressive catches in key moments.
Key stat: In games with at least 50% route participation, Josh Downs has only fallen below a 16% target share twice. Both games came with Anthony Richardson at QB.
–Tier Break–
7. Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
I currently have Rashee Rice in a tier of his own among the rookies. I’m not entirely sure what to make of him. His college profile left a lot to be desired, and I honestly expected him to become another in a long line of second-round WR busts in Kansas City. But Rice has flashed on multiple occasions in his limited role, and the offensive situation is close to ideal if he can earn a full snap share.
The biggest issue with Rice is that the majority of his opportunities come at or near the line of scrimmage. He’s great after the catch, but screens can only take you so far.
Key stat: Rice ranks first in YPRR among all rookie WRs with 30+ targets.
–Tier Break–
8. Demario Douglas, New England Patriots
Another late-round gem from the 2023 class. Demario “Pop” Douglas is already the best weapon in New England (admittedly not a huge achievement) and a legitimate talent.
Key stat: Since Week 7, when his route participation dramatically increased, Douglas has a 24% target share.
9. Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
Jayden Reed is having a solid rookie season that feels more impressive due to some rushing usage and favorable TD luck in recent weeks. Still, he’s on pace for 91 targets and 768 receiving yards in his rookie campaign.
Key stat: Reed leads the Packers in TPRR this season at 20%.
–Tier Break–
10. Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers
Quentin Johnston has had about the worst start to a career you can have. However, he still has name value, size, and the right QB. It’s possible, though unlikely, that he turns things around down the stretch or in year two. But even without actual improvement, we can count on one thing over the next nine months: a sell window. At some point, QJ will do something cool in practice, and people will convince themselves that this year is the year. This is called the Skyy Moore effect. For this reason, I still prefer Johnston to some other rookies who have technically flashed more, like Dontayvion Wicks or Trey Palmer.
Key stat: Johnston has surpassed four fantasy points in just two games this season.
Thanks for reading this article! Follow me on Twitter at @paul_dff if you’d like to hear more from me. I love discussing strategy and trades and engaging in heated debates about this very silly game we play.
