This year, wide receivers seem to be the main focus of this 2024 rookie class in both consensus and mock drafts (outside of quarterbacks in Superflex leagues). In fact, this is the first year I can remember that there’s not a running back inside of the consensus first round of Superflex leagues; as of now. From what I’ve seen, a whopping 11 receivers are being drafted inside of the first 20 picks. So, I was curious what the hit rates were in the past for these rookie WRs, and that’s exactly what I set out to do!
The Process
I compiled all wide receivers drafted from 2018-2023 inside the first two rounds (10 Team Leagues) according to ADP in rookie drafts. Here’s how it all breaks down:
In total, 48 players qualified. Only 21 of them finished inside of the top 40 WRs (43%), and only three finished inside of the top 20 (6%) in their rookie seasons. That being said, there is a lesson in patience to be learned here because, after their rookie season, those numbers jump up to 55% being inside the top 40, and 47% of them eventually have at least one top 20 finish, with the ability for those numbers to get even higher with players like Drake London and Garrett Wilson being set up for big seasons in 2024.
First Round Players
To break it down even further, those drafted in the first rounds of these rookie drafts have a 56% hit rate inside the top 20 so far.Â
Those inside this year’s first round include:
My Pick:
I’ll never take the easy way out and pick any of the big three (Harrison, Nabers, Odunze), so I’ll take the time to highlight my WR4 in this year’s class: Troy Franklin. I think Franklin has a real shot at succeeding in the league, highlighted by an impressive route tree, quick feet in and out of routes, and the ability to play on the outside or the slot. He also touts an eye-popping 5.1 YPRR against single coverage, pointing to Troy Franklin having a real chance to eat at the next level. He should not be looked at past the first round of your rookie drafts.
Second Round Players
Second-round players are a little bleaker, as only 33% of these WRs end up being inside the top 20, so it’s important to temper your expectations on your sleeper WRs.
Those inside this year’s second round include:
My Pick:
He’s a tough evaluation because of his team’s rushing rates, and he also shares the field with Brock Bowers, the perennial tight end in this year’s class. But Ladd McConkey is very much on my fantasy radar for his crisp routes and 4.39 speed. Ladd is also willing to sacrifice himself and excels as a run blocker, allowing him to stay on the field, which is crucial for rookie success.
In conclusion, I think wide receivers are a pretty safe position to target in rookie drafts. As rookies, it is important to temper your expectations, as not every receiver can jump into the league the way Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase did. Patience is key here; otherwise, you’d miss out on big seasons from guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, etc.
Also, make sure you do your due diligence and watch plenty of tape and breakdown for anyone outside of the first round, as the odds may be stacked against you hitting on one of these later-round guys.
Thanks for taking the time to read my article! If you need any dynasty-related questions answered, you can reach me on X @FFDelly. #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuildingÂ
