Rookie Stock Market: Week 9

The push for the playoffs is upon us. In just a few weeks some of us will be sweating all Monday night to see if we snuck into the playoffs. We may end up counting on a rookie like Brandon Aiyuk or Zack Moss to carry us to victory that Monday night as the 49ers host the Bills to close out what will be the final regular-season game for many fantasy leagues. Let’s take a look at some rookie performances from Week 9 and how it affects their value moving forward.

Risers

KJ Hamler WR – Broncos

Week 9 Snap Shot:

Since getting completely healthy, the second-round pick has put together back to back solid fantasy performances. With 10.3 PPR points in Week 8 and 15 this past week, it looks like Hamler could start to become a consideration as a Flex play. I highlighted Hamler as a “Buy” several weeks back and mentioned his healthy snap share %s as indicators for future production. With Hamler now healthy again he is showing us what he is made of, which is a playmaker that can be used all over the field. Hamler is taking 44.3% of his snaps from the slot and has had a rushing attempt in all but one of the games he has played in. It appears Hamler and Jeudy are rotating in and out of the slot, as Jeudy is seeing 47.4% of his snaps from the slot. Jeudy is still clearly the WR to own in Denver, but Hamler is a nice cheaper option. I am very encouraged to see KJ demand 10 targets this past week, 2nd most behind Jeudy, with Tim Patrick seemingly healthy and in the lineup with an 82% snap rate. Personally, I do not see Patrick as a long term dynasty and believe Hamler will continue to outproduce Patrick moving forward. The Broncos have been airing it out recently and with Drew Lock playing as he has, he has shown he can support three receivers, so even with Courtland Sutton back in the picture next year Hamler can still have an impact.

Chase Claypool WR – Steelers

Week 9 Snap Shot:

I may have to eat my words on Mr. Claypool. Ever since his HUGE explosion onto the scene in Week 5 I have been calling him a “Sell”. I did not think Claypool would ever be more than second or maybe even third fiddle in this offense when Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster are healthy and thought it was best to sell Chase Claypool before he crashed back down to earth. However, in Week 9 with both Smith-Schuster and Johnson healthy Claypool led the team in targets with a whopping 13. Equally impressive was his staggering 41.2% Air Yards market share. If Claypool continues this trend I will have to admit defeat on my previous take and flip the script on Chase. I was initially low on Claypool due to his late breakout age, making him an outlier in most analytical nuts books. However, with his athleticism and a handful of impressive performances, Claypool may just be THE outlier that becomes a real asset to your dynasty team. The jury is still out, and only time will tell if Claypool is the real deal.

Fallers

Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB – Chiefs

Week 9 Snap Shot:

The rookie 1.01 in many drafts has been a real letdown the past few weeks. This is now his second straight week as a “Faller” which is not a good look for anyone. His snap share % has now dropped three weeks in a row, from 53% to 50% and most recently 40%. The drop in snaps is easily attributed to the arrival of Le’Veon Bell, but in addition to that is the fact that the Chiefs hardly ran the ball this past week with just 11 total attempts. This is a poor combination for any RB especially when they are not seeing a high % of targets in the passing game, with just 7% in Week 8 and 11% in Week 9. The short term is not looking good for CEH, but he is a hold for dynasty owners. He is still clearly a very talented back and the metrics from playerprofiler.com back that up. Edwards-Helaire is #1 in breakaway runs, and #5 in yards created. As a CEH owner, you must show patience and wait for the situation to eventually improve. With Bell only signed for the year, I find it unlikely a player of Le’Veon’s aptitude will be in KC next year.

Buys

Laviska Shenault WR – Jaguars

After an encouraging start to the season, the rookie out of Colorado has been a disappointment the past few weeks. In his past three games Laviska has not eclipsed 50 yards, but more concerning is his lone touchdown on the season coming in Week 1. It is not all bad for Shenault though. On the season, the rookie is second on the team in receptions with 30, just three less than DJ Chark. In my opinion, Laviska Shenault is the perfect “post-hype” buy. By this I mean he played well early and then just sporadically since. After flopping the past few weeks Shenault owners might be starting to get fed up with him after failing to live up to the hype he had earlier on. This presents a great opportunity to send out offers on the talented rookie. Shenault looks to be the yin to Chark’s yang. Chark is more of a finesse WR that uses his quickness and speed to stretch the field and Shenault is a player that uses his strength and versatility to operate in the short to intermediate game. From a skill set perspective Laviska is a better complement to this offense than both Keelan Cole and Chris Conley. I believe it is just a matter of time before Shenault is fully incorporated into this offense. Give Shenault a break as he is just a rookie.

Sells

DeeJay Dallas RB – Seahawks

The fourth-round pick from Miami has drawn the start the past two weeks and has found the end zone three times in that span. However, despite putting up good fantasy points, DeeJay has been very inefficient as a runner averaging just 2.6 YPC in his two starts. In Week 10 DeeJay Dallas could see another start with Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde still banged up. More concerning than the imminent return of Carson and Hyde is the usage of second-year RB Travis Homer in Week 9. Against Buffalo, Homer out-snapped Dallas 31 to 20 and outgained him 80 yards to just 39. So it appears that Dallas could find himself fourth on the totem pole with Homer’s strong performance. DeeJay Dallas owners should be looking to move him ASAP. The best suitor for DeeJay may be the Chris Carson owner, as a handcuff. Dallas was going either in the fourth round or even undrafted in rookie drafts. After the past couple of weeks, DeeJay’s value has increased and you should be able to fetch a 21 third for him. The key here is selling Dallas while Chris Carson is still questionable to play with a foot sprain. Timing is everything when it comes to buying and selling in dynasty, and the window to sell DeeJay Dallas is quickly closing.

Thanks once again for reading another “Rookie Stock Market”. Another one should be here for you next week! You can follow me on Twitter @RookieWhisper for more content and the occasional joke.