Hello DFF members, I am Chris, and I am doing a “Rookie Roundup” series for the 2023 season. My primary space in fantasy centers around analytics, rookie models, and early career models, so this is something I should be able to make beneficial content out of. This will be released every two weeks, and I will keep you updated on how these rookies have been performing and how their values should be changing. I will provide my take on their current value. This should be used as a tool when buying or selling as what I think their “fair value” is. I would be trying to make moves for these players where you buy for less and sell for more, but if you can get the price I list, I do think it is still in your favor.
C.J. Stroud – 196/318/2626/15/2 – 22/86/2 (Comp/Att/Yards/TDs/INTs – RuAtt/Yards/TDs)
C.J. Stroud has ascended to the upper echelon of dynasty fantasy football. For me, he has joined and is now ahead of guys like Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow in my rankings. Stroud slots in as my overall QB5 and is just below the top tier of Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts. He is the truth and is in for a long career of safety and production.
Current Value: Four Mid-Firsts
Bryce Young – 182/290/1560/8/7 – 20/135/0
Young is steadily continuing along his path of mediocrity, which is just fine. I want to reiterate that if you aren’t competing, Young should be close to the top of your buy list. If you have an older QB who is scoring, it will be especially beneficial for you to swap them for Young. The idea is that QBs are usually not good as rookies; typically, their prospect profile matters more than other positions after year one. He still had a good profile, he was still the number one pick, and he still has a long leash of safety. The fact that he isn’t playing horribly and is just mid makes me interested.
Current Value: Mid-first + Mid-Second
Will Levis – 60/107/699/4/2 – 8/13/0
Levis popped off in his first career start with 240 yards and four touchdowns. Since then, he has been quiet. I am cautiously watching him, looking for a strong positive or negative signal that can help me figure out which way his value is going to go. I think his post-season floor is about an early second, but it’s unlikely you can acquire him for that price. But, if you can spend a late first and this asset now has the opportunity to increase to two or more firsts with a few good games while only having a floor of an early second, that seems like a solid investment.
Current Value: Mid-Late First (1.07-1.10 range)
Bijan Robinson – 125/612/2 – 43/29/208/2 (Rush Attempts/Yards/TDs – Targets/Recs/Yards/TDs)
Bijan finally snuck past Arthur Smith to get on the field and score a touchdown again. Bijan has struggled to score fantasy points over the last month, but it isn’t because he’s not playing well. Bijan is still supremely talented and the dynasty RB1 overall. This last week, Bijan went from averaging around 11 carries to getting 22. He is the kind of guy that can force himself onto the field.
Current Value: Two mid-firsts + mid-second
Jahmyr Gibbs – 76/399/2 – 33/28/165/0
Jahmyr Gibbs is officially that dude. He has scored 20 or more points in each of the last three games and is now getting goal-line work even with David Montgomery back in the lineup. Gibbs is here to stay and is pushing for the dynasty RB2 overall, but he is easily top-four.
Current Value: Two mid-firsts + late-second
Zach Charbonnet – 38/214/0 -17/13/70/0
Charbonnet’s role has been expanding, especially in the passing game. However, I don’t see it growing much more from here without a Kenneth Walker injury. Walker is playing well, and Charbonnet is playing well enough to stay involved but not to displace Walker. He is still a top-tier handcuff.
Current Value: Early-second
Keaton Mitchell – 12/172/2 – 4/3/37/0
Mitchell has exploded onto the scene for the Ravens, amassing 172 yards and two touchdowns over their last two games. Oh, and he did all of that on only 12 carries. Mitchell does what Justice Hill was supposed to: provide juice outside the tackles and out in space. He seems to have a nose for the end zone and can break away from defenders with his speed. I don’t know if he ever becomes a workhorse, but I do know that he is an efficient player and will get more work in the offense going forward. Buy for a 3rd if you can, sell for a 2nd if you own him.
Current Value: Late-second
Zay Flowers – 68/50/545/1 (Targets/Receptions/Yards/Touchdowns)
Zay has been on a bit of a cold streak lately, but so has the Ravens’ pass offense as a whole. They have been running the ball so well and scoring so many rush TDs. I think this will regress to a more normal rate, but this pass offense will be low volume as long as Lamar is leading it. I still love Flowers’ talent, and he has a high weekly upside, but it might be rough starting him every week and dealing with the variance.
Current Value: Late-first
Puka Nacua – 96/64/827/2
Puka has not been catching balls from Matthew Stafford lately, which has certainly affected his production. Luckily, Stafford is back this upcoming week, and Puka will be able to get back to his 15+ points per game with even more room for upside. He’s still that guy, and he is still a top 36 dynasty asset.
Current Value: Mid-first + mid-second
Jordan Addison – 66/45/603/7
Addison has not slowed down, even with Josh Dobbs taking over as quarterback for the Vikings. Now, this has come while Justin Jefferson is inactive. Adding Jefferson to this Dobbs-led team will be very interesting, as he will probably eat a ton of targets like he always had. Regardless, Addison is undeniably a good player and should be very close to other popular WR2s like Tee Higgins.
Current Value: Mid-first
Tank Dell – 57/34/510/5
Tank Dell had a monster last two weeks, and he is earning targets at a very high rate. Dell has moved up my board a ton and is now, in my opinion, a top-50 dynasty asset. The argument for Dell is that he got day two draft capital, was a good producer in college, and now demands a high target share from one of the best young QBs in the league. If I had a list of QBs I would prefer to have my WRs play with, it would be Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, Cousins, and Stroud. Dell has the opportunity to be paired with C.J. for a long time as well. I think you can still buy him at efficient prices, and you may want to try.
Current Value: Mid-first
Michael Wilson – 39/28/435/2
Michael Wilson has had a surprisingly usable season, and I do not think he will fall out of favor with the Cardinals very soon. He is a nice guy to have on your roster as a bye-week fill-in piece. I am excited to see how he does with Kyler back and if he can form some chemistry there.
Current Value: Early third
Demario Douglas – 46/30/361/0
Douglas is easily the best WR on the Patriots right now. He has been very usable as well, making him an excellent flex starter you can expect double-digit points from weekly. It would not surprise me to see Douglas go the route of a Jakobi Meyers and be very relevant for this Patriots team by commanding targets at a high rate due to being a great route runner with little competition.
Current Value: Mid-second
Marvin Mims – 14/11/246/1
I did not know it was possible, but Marvin Mims is seeing even less work now than before. I do not get this, as he was very efficient with his touches earlier in the season. Mims may be a strong post-hype buy, but I want to see either the price drop more or some positive signals while the price stays the same. I would buy for an early 3rd.
Current Value: Late second
Quentin Johnston – 28/18/162/1
Johnston caught his first touchdown! Yay! Now go sell him for whatever you can get. This dude is in the perfect situation, no Mike Williams or Josh Palmer. Yet, he is still being out-targeted by Jalen Guyton. QJ finally had a decent fantasy game, so sell if someone thinks this is a sign of things to come without seeing the still awful target share numbers.
Current Value: Early-second
Sam LaPorta – 64/47/474/4
Say hello to the new dynasty TE1 on Keep Trade Cut. LaPorta has finally achieved legendary status and I do not see that stopping anytime soon. He is a stud, it’s really that simple. LaPorta’s only knock is that TE is getting better than it has been in the past with the sudden influx of himself, Kincaid, and Trey McBride. So that removes some value because he isn’t as big of an advantage at the position, but he is still awesome.
Current Value: Mid-first + late-first
Dalton Kincaid – 51/45/390/2
The Dawson Knox injury has rapidly accelerated Kincaid’s rise to stardom by forcing the Bills to involve him in the passing game, which is working for them. Kincaid himself now also has a case for the dynasty TE1. He has been producing at a very high level and is attached to Josh Allen, who will always lead a pass-happy offense. I am very excited for Kincaid and all of these new talented TEs.
Current Value: Mid-first + early second
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017. Shoot me a DM; they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy, where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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