Rapid Reaction: DeAndre Hopkins to the Titans

After dreams of DeAndre Hopkins becoming a member of either the Kansas City Chiefs or Buffalo Bills, we must now face the reality that DeAndre Hopkins will be a member of the Tennessee Titans in 2023. Being from Nashville myself, my news feed has tons of photo edits of him wearing the number 10 jersey in the two-tone blue. Opinions are all over the place as this is one player changing teams that is a massive challenge to evaluate on a dime. An offense centered around Derrick Henry doesn’t present itself as the most wide receiver-friendly offense from a fantasy football perspective. We also have the memories of WRs like Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, and Julio Jones coming to the Titans at the end of their careers to put up minimal production. So much to unpack here with this signing. Not only how the Titans impact DeAndre Hopkins but also how Hopkins impacts the rest of the Titans players.

Titans’ Pass Offense

While it might be easy to draw parallels from Hopkins to some of those other veteran receivers, Hopkins still appears to be playing good ball. The suspension, late-season injury, and the Cardinals being out of contention hide that he was on a nearly 1,400-yard pace. The concern for me lies not with his ability but with what his opportunities will look like in Tennessee. Derrick Henry has had over 300 carries in three of the last four seasons. The season he was under that milestone, he only played eight games and still had 219 carries. Last year the Titans were third lowest in the league in pass attempts while the Cardinals had the fourth most, a difference of over 12 pass attempts per game. It’s tough to imagine him matching his 10.7 targets per game from last season in an offense that only attempts 26.8 passes per game (approximately a 40% target share). The Titans did make a change at offensive coordinator this offseason. That could change the pass rate in 2023 for the team. The new offensive coordinator, Tim Kelly, has worked with DeAndre Hopkins before as the offensive coordinator for the Texans in 2019. That season, Hopkins posted a 30.9% target share, good for 2nd in the league. As optimistic as that sounds, I find it difficult to see him getting more than 7-8 targets a game in the Titans’ offense.

The Good

While this move affects a lot of different players, I think we should start under center. Ryan Tannehill should start most of the season if things go according to plan for the Titans. If the season begins to slip away or there is an injury, though, we might see some Will Levis this season. These two players might be the most positively impacted by this acquisition. Going from a second-season Treylon Burks being your number-one wide receiver to DeAndre Hopkins as your number-one wide receiver is a game-changer. The Titans now look much more equipped to keep drives going on 3rd and medium than they have been in recent years. The bump affects Tannehill a bit more, as this suggests the Titans still consider themselves contenders this season and are more likely to have Tannehill play most of the season. That said, I am more comfortable with Tannehill as my QB3 than my QB2.

We cannot discuss the Titans without discussing Derrick Henry. As he has aged, his production has stayed elite while his Dynasty value has dropped slowly. Though I have mentioned the new offensive coordinator in Tennessee, head coach Mike Vrabel still wants to run the ball. It is part of the identity of this football team at this stage. I feel the same about Derrick Henry today as I did before Hopkins came to town. He is a great value for a contending team to buy but high risk with his age and this being the last year on his contract.

Beyond the quarterbacks and King Henry, we also need to consider Treylon Burks and other pass-catchers. We will get to the other pass-catchers in a moment as the conversation is quite different. Treylon Burks was a prospect that had differing opinions coming out of Arkansas as a prospect as it is. His rookie year somehow gave both sides of the fence confidence. He had some flashes that truthers were excited about but also some consistency issues and red flags for the doubters. Now the addition of DeAndre Hopkins to the ecosystem must be considered. While there is a possibility that Burks will receive fewer targets as a result of Hopkins getting his share, Burks will no longer receive number-one coverage. This could lead to more big play possibilities and more efficiency from him overall. The Hopkins addition feels like a break-even for Treylon Burks’ value when it is all said and done. If you were in on him before, you are still in on him now. If you were out on him before, you are still out on him now.

The Bad

Time to be a little pessimistic now. The other pass catchers in Tennessee, namely Chigoziem Okonkwo and Kyle Phillips. We have already discussed the volume concerns for the Titan’s passing attack. “Chig” has been a trendy name all offseason after his flashes at the end of last season, but Kyle Phillips had also picked up stem due to a lack of competition in the wide receiver room. I still think Okonkwo can produce well enough at the tight end position, but Kyle Phillips is now in roster clogger territory in Dynasty leagues. The position makes a difference here, both for real football and fantasy football reasons. The threshold for fantasy success at tight end is lower than at wide receiver, but we also have to consider personnel groupings for the Titans. Both players should be on the field during 11 personnel (1RB, 1TE, 3WR). However, if the Titans go to a second tight end or a fullback (which compliments a run-heavy approach), then Chig will be on the field while Kyle Phillips is likely off for a play. The Titans may use some amount of 4WR, but even if they want to spread the formation, they are likely in 11 personnel, with Chig just lining up in the slot. For this reason, I consider Kyle Phillips cuttable in the circumstances and a roster clogger otherwise.

Despite how high I have been on Hopkins as a buy this offseason, I don’t like the situation from a fantasy perspective. I would only be interested in buying now if there is a massive dip in the market. If it gets to the point that he can be had for a 2024 2nd that I believe will be late, then I may bite. But I am looking for WR2/3 production, while I was hoping for a WR1/2 production level before. If you wanted Burks before, you should still want him now. I have been a bit alarmed by some of the red flags early in his career, but this offseason has had many positive reports compared to last offseason, where there was a lot of negative rhetoric. The addition of Hopkins may have created a dip to make him a bit easier to acquire, but results may vary from league to league. The most positive uptick has to be Ryan Tannehill. He now feels safer as a QB3 than he did before. The most negative dip has to be Kyle Phillips, who I would now trade away for half of a bag of potato chips at this point. While it isn’t the landing spot we wanted for Hopkins, it is the one we have gotten.

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