Devy Football Factory

Projected Futures: Week 1

The NFL season is finally here and the direction our teams take early on in the season will play a significant role in the type of trades we make throughout the year. As an owner it is hard to part with my future draft picks unless I know it is going to put me in contention for a championship run. One of the best things about dynasty football is the annual rookie drafts where we as owners use our knowledge to draft the best players possible.

If I am not going to make a run for a championship, I tend to trade off a few minor pieces that might better help another team this season so I can load up on future picks. This allows me to grab young assets or sell off my rookie picks in peak rookie season when their value is usually at its highest. The summer time hype on the next class is crucial for future rookie pick value as well as draft season.

If I decide to keep my rookie picks or trade for more just what exactly do I have to look forward to? Well, what I am going to do here is use a set of rankings, ADP, and value throughout the season to try and pinpoint who is valued where in future rookie drafts. Instead of blindly selling or buying draft picks, you will be able to put a name or group of names next to the pick you are trading away or acquiring. I know it is hard to pinpoint where exactly your picks will be slotted in future drafts, but a lot of times you hear someone say “this player or a later ‘18 second?” and that is where this power rankings aspect comes into play.

I now have a visual of future picks for the first and second rounds of the 2018, 2019, and 2020 class. Players move up and down, and opinions constantly change so I will be updating these future projections weekly so owners can use it to gauge current value.

Derrius Guice and Saquon Barkley are the top two assets in the 2018 class and have been for quite some time. SMU WR Courtland Sutton is a favorite for many, and although he had a very underwhelming week one, he will stay slotted at #3 unless the regression continues. Josh Rosen is slotted as QB1 for the 2018 class and has been there on DFF Devy rankings since the beginning. Two post-hype sleepers in the Devy community that should continue to have good seasons are Alabama WR Calvin Ridley, who is slotted at 1.12, and Oregon RB Royce Freeman, who is slotted at 2.07. This week’s 2018 projections are finished off by Louisville WR Jaylen Smith who went off for 8 catches and 117 yards in week one along with Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham who made his long awaited debut for the Tigers.

The top 5 assets in the 2019 class are all wide receivers, and the only one who had a notable performance was NC State’s Kelvin Harmon who caught 10 of 17 targets for 114 yards. Miami’s Ahmmon Richards was out with an injury in week one, but there is no doubt he will be their most productive receiver in his sophomore season after leading Miami in receiving yards last year as a freshman. A&M RB Trayveon Williams, Missouri RB Damarea Crockett and Ole Miss WR AJ Brown make up the middle of round one with their dominant performances in week one. One surprising aspect of this 2019 class is Jauan Jennings. I took it upon myself to place him in this 2019 class with the recent news of having to undergo wrist surgery and miss 90% of the season if not the whole year. That leads me to believe he might return for another season of college football. Texas WR Collin Johnson had a great game against Maryland in week one. He was either first or tied for first in all receiving categories for his team, and he leads off round 2 for the 2019 class. Georgia RB Elijah Holyfield has taken quite the fall from last year while being the 5th RB on Georgia’s depth chart. He merits consideration because of his talent but players need to be on the field to showcase that talent, so he rounds off the back end of round 2.

FSU RB Cam Akers and Michigan WR Tarik Black headline the 2020 class with tremendous build, athleticism, and upside at their respective positions. Ohio State RB JK Dobbins comes in at the 1.03, and if you saw his performance last Thursday, you’ll understand why. Dobbins had 29 carries for 181 yards and is the only true freshman running back in Ohio State history to start their season opener. 1.06 is currently USC RB Stephen Carr who had a 52 yard TD run against Western Michigan to seal the Trojans week one victory. One player who should continue to see a lofty rise throughout this process is Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor who led the Badgers with 87 rushing yards and 1 TD in week one.

Thank you for reading, and I hope this article is helpful for your future trades. Follow me on twitter @pacificscouting.

 

lawrence_chaney

DFF Co-Owner. VP College Scouting & Development. Host of The Devy Watch Podcast. Focused on watching the development of athletes all the way from high school to the NFL.

View all lawrence_chaney's Posts

Leave a Comment

(required)

(required)