Devy Football Factory

Projected Futures: 2018 Week 6

The goal for Projected Futures is to help owners better understand the outlook for future classes. For Dynasty owners, it is a tool to gauge who they would be trading away or who they would be trading for when dealing future rookie picks. For Devy owners, it is a tool to place future rookie pick value on their Devy players to help when making trades. With the 2018 season in full swing, Projected Futures will come in handy.

For example, last season, Projected Futures placed a 2018 1.05 rookie pick value on Nick Chubb to help owners identify who they would likely be getting with the 1.05 pick. For the 2019 class, N’Keal Harry was the 1.01 and for the 2020 class, Cam Akers was the 1.01. I base the Projected Futures not only on my rankings but incorporating the feel of consensus along with performance and metrics favorable to a player’s outlook.

Players will be placed in the class of their earliest draft eligible year. Here are the projections for the 2019, 2020, and 2021 classes after week 6 of the 2018 college football season

 

Bryan Edwards had an uptick in red zone production against Missouri. The QB change from Bentley due to an injury was very beneficial for the Gamecocks offense. Edwards currently sits at a 32% Dominator Rating through the first 6 weeks of the college football season, besting his freshman and sophomore output which were 29% and 27%. Edwards is built for the next level and his traits translate with his big body, athleticism, route running, and separation quickness. Although the big media has yet to speak a word of Edwards, his outlook as a prospect is promising both from a metric and tape standpoint. Kelvin Harmon has been a highly touted prospect in the 2019 class since the conclusion of his freshman season. Harmon led the Wolfpack in receiving as a sophomore posting over 1,000 yards and he’s the leading receiver again this year with 534 yards and 2 touchdowns with a 16.2 average. Harmon should test extremely well at the combine. He has a very well-synced build and filled out frame. He shows great physicality and wins contested catches with effort and athleticism. Harmon has is adept at winning downfield with good speed and tracking skills. He continues to hover around the top tier of playmaking wide receivers in the 2019 class.

Noah Fant hasn’t garnered much attention on a national level through 6 weeks as he’s currently the 3rd leading receiver on Iowa’s roster, following fellow TE T.J. Hockenson. Fant is still posting a 35% Dominator Rating hauling in 5 of Iowa’s 9 touchdown passes this season. Iowa has used Fant closer to the line of scrimmage this season and haven’t sent him vertically nearly as much as they did in 2017. Fant is a complete TE and still far and away the best prospect at his position in this draft class. Having a dominating threat in the red zone is a premium for the TE position and Fant thrives in this area. Tyler Johnson continues to dominate and continues to glide under the radar. Minnesota is a low volume passing offense, but Johnson has three 100-yard games this season and two multiple TD games. He has improved as a WR in his 3rd season at the position. The ceiling has been there because of the elite athleticism Johnson possesses, but he looks like he is fully grasping the position and honing his craft. With the amount of depth at the position, I have no feel for the direction Johnson will decide to go at seasons end. He has the talent to play in the league and I think very highly of him as a prospect but staying one more season with PJ Fleck and a young QB who can grow as a passer might be his best route to gain notoriety. Justin Herbert was on Bye this past week but spent the previous two weeks dealing against Stanford and Cal. I have fancied him as the best QB prospect in this class, but his play has pushed him over the top. He makes all the throws look easy. He carries ideal size at the position. His arm talent and placement are second to none, and he understands the position and showcases his ability to move defenders off their spot with his shoulders and eyes. Herbert has had a fantastic Junior campaign and is well on his way to being a franchise QB for some NFL team.

Greg Dortch had his 2017 season cut short but immediately picked up where he left off. Dortch has made the job easy for true freshman QB Sam Hartman and playing with a true freshman makes Dortch’s start to the season even more impressive. He’s a weapon that’s been used in several ways, but he’s also shown he is a complete WR despite lacking the ideal size. He has elite speed to win downfield and amazing lateral quickness to win after the catch. Dortch currently has a 47.46% Dominator Rating which ranks 9th in the nation. Miles Sanders was kept off the list due to the overwhelming amount of depth in this 2019 class, but he has grinded his way to a spot. Prior to the season I highlighted him as a breakout candidate at the running back position. Although it was an easy call due to the vacated production left behind by Saquon Barkley, it is still nice to see it unfold. Sanders has a career 6.4 rushing average with a 6.2 rushing average in 2018 and well on his way to over 1,000 yards for the season. Sanders is very elusive but has the willingness to pick up hard yards and take on tacklers. He has a chance to place himself in the top 5 RB discussion by years end.

 

Laviska Shenault is my WR1 for Devy beyond the 2019 class. The usage could point to him as a gimmick player, but it really boils down to him being an elite athlete with playmaking ability both as a receiver and a runner. He has the nuance at the position to build on and become a complete WR. Stretching the field is just another part of his game that makes him dangerous. His 141.6 receiving yards per game is the best in the nation and tops the next closest WR by 17 yards per game. The production is no fluke and isn’t a product of scheme but more so a product of the player dominating in all aspects of the game.

Travis Etienne was extremely efficient as a true freshman in 2017 with 7.2 yards per carry. Now that he is the clear-cut bell cow for Clemson his production has gotten even better and more efficient. Etienne is posting 9.2 yards per carry with 762 yards and 11 touchdowns through 6 weeks. He has run for 120 yards or more in his last 4 games and is 4th in the nation in rushing yards while being tied for 3rd in the nation in rushing touchdowns. Etienne has looked like the best player on the field all in each of his matchups. He is one of the most explosive backs in all of college football. The only knock is the lack of use in the passing game and the noted struggles in pass protection.

Jerry Jeudy is currently WR2 for the 2020 class. His skillset translates to the NFL most among his peers. He is a precise route runner, has elite speed, the ability to stretch the field, and great quickness. Jeudy is tied to the best quarterback in the nation and they continue to help one another’s development. Tua and Jeudy are currently the best show on television. Trey Sermon was terrific on Oklahoma’s final drive to tie the game against Texas. He is a threat out of the backfield as a pass catcher with very natural hands. He was finally used as a receiving back but still in limited fashion. Sermon’s skillset makes him one of the more complete backs in college football, it’s up to Oklahoma to showcase it. Eno Benjamin continues to have a tremendous season. He leads all 2020 rushers with a 38% Dominator Rating and ranks 7th in the nation at broken tackle rate. Benjamin is very patient as a runner, makes the right decisions, shows terrific lateral agility, and good burst as a runner. He has had consistent usage catching balls out of the backfield with 23 receptions but even then, he could be utilized more in that area. Benjamin lacks ideal size but still stands big enough to carry the load and be a workhorse at the next level. Jeff Thomas has made a case as Miami’s top WR but now it is set in stone with the unfortunate news of Ahmmon Richards career ending injury. Miami’s passing game has been average, but Thomas has shine when the given the opportunity. He’s a player I had reservations about due to size but after studying his game closely this offseason he put those to rest. Thomas is a very good route runner and his speed makes him a dangerous playmaker with the ability to score at all parts of the field. Tamorrian Terry debuts on the list. He has been Florida State’s best WR and a favorite for some in the industry heading into this season. He is breaking out this year and currently has a 33% Dominator Rating accounting for 5 of the teams 11 receiving touchdowns. He is gifted athletically while possessing a 6’4” 200lb frame. In another deep class, Terry has done enough to receive recognition.

 

Brevin Jordan is second in receiving touchdowns for Miami and is off to an impressive start as a true freshman at a school known for producing elite TE prospects. He has a 19% Dominator Rating on the season and jumps up to the top TE spot for the 2021 class.

Rashod Bateman has had a terrific freshman season from a metric standpoint. He plays in a low volume passing offense that has been dominated by Tyler Johnson for the last year and a half, but Bateman has still managed to post a 30% Dominator Rating and is well on his way to a breakout season. Fellow Devy Watch evaluator Clayton Stefan did a good job of highlighting the freshman WRs with a possibility of elite breakout age in his article over the summer Devy Watch – Five 2018 Freshman WRs with Elite Breakout Age Potential with Bateman making the list. Jermar Jefferson came out of nowhere this season by way of an Artavis Pierce injury. The questions surrounding his job were likely put to rest after four games of at least 100 yards and two 200-yard rushing performances, but it was put in stone this past weekend when he maintained the bell cow role in Pierce’s return to action. Jefferson is the nation’s second leading rusher and tied for second in rushing touchdowns. His 42% Dominator Rating is the best among all true freshman runners and top 6 in the nation. Jefferson is a one cut back with good vision. He has a very good understanding of what hole to hit and how to set up defenders. He needs to improve his pad level but overall his season is looking like one for the record books.

lawrence_chaney

DFF Co-Owner. VP College Scouting & Development. Host of The Devy Watch Podcast. Focused on watching the development of athletes all the way from high school to the NFL.

View all lawrence_chaney's Posts

Leave a Comment

(required)

(required)