The 2023 offseason promises significant changes to the running back landscape in the NFL. Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll go over my predictions for the running back situations of each team, as well as the corresponding fantasy implications. You can check out Part 2 of this series, where I looked at the NFC East.
Kansas City Chiefs
Current Starter: Isiah Pacheco + Jerick McKinnon
The Kansas City Chiefs’ recent dynasty has been marked by consistently having the most potent offense in the entire league from year to year. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s sheer dominance of opposing defenses has become the status quo for the Chiefs every season, and the surrounding skill players have proportionally benefitted from being a part of such an explosive offense. Studs like Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and more have found perennial fantasy dominance in this offense. The one position in Kansas City that has been a headache for fantasy managers has been running back.
Formerly boasting fantasy legends like Jamaal Charles and Priest Holmes, the last few years for KC running backs have been frustrating, to say the least. Former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire found himself both injured and in the doghouse this season despite a strong start for fantasy purposes. CEH struggled to assert himself on the ground and was bailed out by finding the endzone often, eventually losing the job to the current duo of Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon. While McKinnon became a league winner and possibly the waiver-wire pickup of the season, and Pacheco became a solid FLEX play with some dynasty upside moving forward, the former arguable fantasy RB1 from the 2020 class (yes, people were taking him over Jonathan Taylor) has been reduced to an IR stash who potentially won’t have a role moving forward.
The Chiefs’ backfield will remain a frustrating situation to roster in 2023. With McKinnon set to be a free agent, he may have played himself into a contract not worth the Chiefs’ investment. Pacheco seems to be locked in as their early-down rusher: he has flashed excellent burst and good vision between the tackles, and his trademark power running style has been put on display this postseason. Pacheco is a decent hands catcher as well, however, the Chiefs are unlikely to use him in a true 3-down role. My best guess would be that Kansas City throws a 3rd to 5th-round pick on a rookie in the mold of Devon Achane or Deuce Vaughn, who could complement Pacheco’s skill set. Both that rookie and Pacheco will be intriguing fantasy plays, likely not pushing the RB2 territory but having FLEX upside. In dynasty leagues, neither player will be a particularly elite asset, but both will have high upside for years to come due to the pure power of the Kansas City offense and are worth holding on to or trading for at discounted prices.
Projected 2023 Starter: Isiah Pacheco + Day 2/3 Rookie
Los Angeles Chargers
Current Starter: Austin Ekeler
The biggest contrast between real football to fantasy football might be the Los Angeles Chargers’ run game. The Chargers ranked 30th in rushing yards and 30th in yards per attempt- yet Austin Ekeler still finished as the RB1 in fantasy this season, largely due to his baffling 107 receptions and 18 total touchdowns. This trend was put into the national spotlight a couple of weeks ago, as the Chargers failed to establish the ground game in their wild card matchup with the Jaguars. Ekeler produced a measly 35 yards on 13 carries (2.7 ypc); however, by fantasy standards, it was a productive day (18.3 PPR points). But unfortunately for fantasy managers, the Chargers’ lack of a ground game was a big reason they were unable to close out a 27-0 advantage to start the 2nd half.
As such, I believe the Chargers will look to invest resources in improving their rushing attack this offseason. The Chargers have not been shy in free agency the past couple of seasons, but after shelling out big contracts to both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen last offseason, I find it unlikely that the Chargers look to be big spenders on offense this coming March. More likely, I expect Los Angeles to spend a 3rd or 4th round selection on a complimentary back to add a more physically dominant force in the backfield. Some rookies I like going to the Chargers would be Zach Charbonnet, Tank Bigsby, and Zach Evans. Due to the presence of Ekeler in the passing game, there is a chance that you can get a great value on a good prospect if people are scared away by the landing spot. Keep an eye out in the second round of rookie drafts, as this rookie could be a sleeper very much worth taking a shot on.
The 2022 RB1 is not going anywhere certainly and will remain in the elite tier of fantasy producers for the next few seasons. Something to note with Ekeler is that the Chargers have moved on from their passing game coordinator Joe Lombardi, who was a heavy user of the quick game and involved Ekeler heavily. It would not surprise me to see Ekeler’s receiving totals take a hit next season, and if a power-running rookie is added to the mix, some of Ekeler’s high-value goal-line touches could be in jeopardy. I would recommend selling high on Ekeler while you can, as he is likely to regress for a number of reasons. Target Travis Etienne +, D’Andre Swift ++, and Javonte Williams ++ to score a younger talent and add value by capitalizing on Ekeler’s career year.
Projected 2023 Starter: Austin Ekeler + Day 2 Rookie
Denver Broncos
Current Starter: (Javonte Williams) Latavius Murray + Chase Edmonds
Javonte Williams’ ACL tear in week 4 was one of the worst bad beats of the 2022 season. Coming off of a strong rookie season splitting touches with Melvin Gordon, Williams was primed for a breakout season, boasting a 2nd round ADP in redraft and nearing a consensus top 5 rank at the position in dynasty. A superb talent, Williams has elite contact balance, runs with a high-level balance of power and speed, is a natural receiver, and has the prototypical size to be a dominant 3-down back. Unfortunately, we never really saw that potential realized this year, as the Broncos offense was horrid even when Williams was healthy.
Williams showed flashes this year of the player we know he can become, but the addition of the injury makes his future a tad murky. His ceiling is truly elite, as he could potentially take on a bell-cow workload and absolutely has the talent to turn that role into some elite fantasy production. Williams could easily be a fantasy RB1 for years to come. However, there is certainly a risk with Williams that he does not return to pre-injury form, or that the Broncos feel they can’t rely on Williams and turn their backfield into a committee. Thus, Williams is a high-risk, high-reward asset in dynasty right now worth buying if you can get a discount; however, shelling out and buying him at his ceiling is an incredibly risky move.
Williams is not expected to be ready for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, so the Broncos are likely candidates to sign a few veterans in free agency or draft a late-round rookie to hold down the fort until Williams returns. This could potentially mean re-signing Latavius Murray or Chase Edmonds, both of whom are impending free agents. Those players will hold some value early in the season as the Broncos will likely ease Williams back toward a full workload, however, they should not be on your radar as reliable assets long-term. Use them as rotational FLEX plays to start the year, but past that, this is Williams’ backfield, and anyone else should be viewed as a solid handcuff.
Projected 2023 Starter: (Javonte Williams) + Veteran Free Agent Committee
Las Vegas Raiders
Current Starter: Josh Jacobs
A mixed bag of reports has come out of the Las Vegas Raiders’ locker room regarding the future of the league’s rushing leader this past season. Jacobs has gone on record stating that he wants to stay a Raider, but also expressed frustration with the team towards the end of the season as the Raiders sputtered out of the playoff race. This one is fairly simple: either Jacobs signs a big extension and remains the Raiders’ bellcow for the next few years, or the Raiders let him walk and opt for Josh McDaniels’ New England committee-style backfield. Either way, Jacobs will remain a top-10 dynasty running back and should be treated as such in leagues.
Jacobs’ elite usage and talent, combined with the Raiders having a fairly high-powered offense with lots of touchdown opportunities made him an elite asset this past season, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t put up similar numbers again this season, should the team keep him. Jacobs was the engine of the Raiders’ offense, and I believe they would be pretty hard-pressed to let him walk- although it is certainly a possibility.
Should Jacobs leave, the Raiders backfield would likely be one to avoid, as McDaniels’ tenure in New England often was a source of fantasy frustration due to their lack of commitment to their ballcarriers. My official prediction is that Jacobs re-signs with Las Vegas, and continues his dominant production for at least a couple of seasons. He is a high-quality asset for contending rosters in dynasty and is an easy RB1 lock as long as his role remains what it is.
Projected 2023 Starter: Josh Jacobs
Thanks for reading! Keep an eye out for the next installment of “Predicting the 2023 RB Carousel”. Follow my Twitter @bensprinkler and take a look at some more recent articles on DFF to learn the game and dominate your leagues!
