The 2023 offseason promises big changes to the running back landscape in the NFL. Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll go over my predictions for the running back situations of each team, as well as the corresponding fantasy implications. Check out Part 6 of this series, where I looked at the NFC North. Today, in a 2-for-1 special, we’ll take a quick look at the AFC and NFC South divisions.
New Orleans Saints
2022 Starter: Alvin Kamara
The Saints just made an interesting splash in free agency, signing Jamaal Williams to a 3-year $12 million dollar deal. Given the Saints’ cap situation, I am fairly surprised they invested money into a veteran presence in the RB room with team captain Alvin Kamara already present. I suppose I see some reasoning given Kamara’s likely 4-8 game suspension to start the 2023 season, but I feel throwing a late day 2/early day 3 pick would have been a better allocation of resources for New Orleans. Either way, this franchise is in pretty rough shape- their cap situation is bad, and they’ve whiffed on some trade-ups and lost valuable draft capital.
However, their offense looks pretty solid on paper and should provide both Kamara and Williams with plenty of touchdown opportunities. A Derek Carr-led offense supported last year’s RB2 in Josh Jacobs as well as the WR3 in Davante Adams, so I can see a world where the Saints are able to be a bit of a fantasy gold mine. Williams and Kamara will likely cannibalize each other to some degree, but I like them both as mid-RB2/high-end FLEX plays. Kamara remains a good value in dynasty leagues right now, and Williams is poised for another solid season coming off a career year.
Projected 2023 Starter: Alvin Kamara + Jamaal Williams
Tennessee Titans
2022 Starter: Derrick Henry
While I don’t see Derrick Henry sticking around in Tennessee much longer, I don’t think this is the offseason it happens. No one is trading for that $16 million cap hit in 2023; the aging and now injury-riddled Henry is not exactly a value at his $10.5 million salary. But, $4.7 million in 2024 doesn’t sound so bad, and if no one wants him then, the Titans would only incur $4.7 million in dead cap. Henry will be a Titan in 2023, and will maintain his RB1 status for one more year, but likely not much longer past this.
Projected 2023 Starter: Derrick Henry
Atlanta Falcons
2022 Starter: Tyler Allgeier & True Committee
The Falcons had one of the best rushing attacks of the 2022 season, ugly as their offense might have been. One thing no one can deny about Arthur Smith is that he is damn good at scheming effective run plays. His use of heavy formations and blocking tight ends has been frustrating, to say the least, but the Falcons’ run game benefits greatly from those extra blockers who are much more impactful than in more spread sets. Smith used a plethora of backs, including Tyler Allgeier, Caleb Huntley, Cordarelle Patterson, and Avery Williams — all of who got a solid amount of touches at different points in the season. However, only one of these guys has long-term fantasy relevance.
Tyler Allgeier led the Falcons in carries last year, which turned into a respectable year (RB29 in PPR, 1,000 yards rushing). Allgeier’s fantasy production was not a great reflection of his effectiveness due to only finding the end zone 3 times. However, he averaged almost five yards per carry and certainly earned himself a solid role in the Atlanta backfield in 2023. Look for Allgeier to have another solid season for Atlanta, coupled with some positive touchdown regression. His job security is far from ideal, but I like him as locked in RB2/Very high-end FLEX on fantasy rosters in 2023, which could open a good window to sell.
Projected 2023 Starter: Tyler Allgeier & True Committee
Indianapolis Colts
2022 Starter: Jonathan Taylor
Jonathan Taylor was the consensus 1.01 in Redraft leagues this year. Coming off of his RB1 campaign in 2021, Taylor had earned himself dynasty RB1 status with his elite combination of speed, power, contact balance, and most importantly, an old-fashioned true workhorse role. Taylor’s insane workload was unique from almost every other back in the NFL, but he may have paid the price in 2022. Taylor took a small step back this season, as he battled with ankle issues throughout the year until ultimately being shut down after week 15. Taylor was a bit hit-or-miss the whole season, with a good number of big games and a couple of duds to balance things out.
The hope is that Taylor’s ankle surgery was a success, and he can return to form in what hopes to be a massively upgraded Colts offense under new head coach Shane Steichen. This, combined hopefully with a new signal-caller, should vault Taylor right back into the top-3 conversation at the position in dynasty, which is where he belongs. Taylor is also due for an extension after this coming season, which bodes well for an overall RB1-level season from him. Fire up JT as an elite dynasty RB1 in 2023 and beyond.
Projected 2023 Starter: Jonathan Taylor
Carolina Panthers
2022 Starter: D’Onta Foreman + Chuba Hubbard
One of my favorite dynasty signings so far has been the addition of Miles Sanders to the Panthers’ offense. This makes me wonder if Carolina is thinking about recreating the Sanders-Hurts read option that was so effective in Philadelphia with potential #1 overall pick Anthony Richardson, who profiles as an effective read-option quarterback as well. Regardless, Sanders looks primed to be heavily utilized in Carolina as they attempt to lean on the run game while developing whoever their franchise quarterback might become in April. Coming off of a career year in Philly and now running behind the most underrated offensive line in the sport of football, I love Sanders as a very high-end RB2/fringe RB1 in 2023, and he’ll be one of my favorite targets as a mid-round Zero-RB anchor.
Projected 2023 Starter: Miles Sanders (confirmed)
Houston Texans
2022 Starter: Dameon Pierce
Dameon Pierce was one of the most fun stories of 2022, as the fourth-round rookie burst onto the scene early into the season. Pierce garnered buzz during training camp and vaulted himself into the back end of the first round of rookie drafts- in part due to the lack of depth behind consensus RB1&2 Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker. Pierce wound up living up to the hype, but his season was ultimately cut short by an ankle injury in week 14. Pierce was a solid producer in 2023, averaging almost 13 points per game while healthy.
All that being said, Pierce remains a controversial asset in dynasty. Many value him in the top 16-20 range, but due to his low draft capital, others are weary about his long-term value due to job security concerns and more. Check out Paul Patterson’s excellent piece on Pierce here. Overall, Pierce should maintain a good role in 2023, but I definitely wouldn’t be surprised to see Houston add more depth at the position late in the draft this April. Keep Pierce as a solid RB2, but be cautious- a good sell window may present itself early in the season.
Projected 2023 Starter: Dameon Pierce + Early Day 3 Rookie
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2022 Starter: Leonard Fournette + Rachaad White
Rachaad White has quickly become a Twitter darling this offseason, with the departure of Leonard Fournette seemingly indicating a clear RB1 role for White in 2023. White had a solid rookie campaign and was especially utilized in the passing game, tallying an impressive 50 receptions on the year. White did put together some impressive fantasy performances, but Tampa’s rushing attack as a whole was one of the worst in the league (dead last in rushing EPA per play). White was no exception in Tampa’s backfield, as his 3.73 yards per carry and 481 rushing yards on the year definitely leave something to be desired. Additionally, with the departure of Tom Brady, it can be expected that White’s high receiving volume from 2022 will likely take a hit next season.
Unfortunately for the White truthers, the odds of him remaining the only relevant back in Tampa are pretty low. As we all know, the age of the bell cow has come and gone, and most of the time unless a team spent a first-round pick on a running back, they’ll opt to build up some level of a committee-style approach. I expect Tampa to sign a cheap veteran in free agency and/or draft someone on Day 2 of the NFL Draft to provide a change-of-pace from White and add some depth, should White deal with any injury in 2023. I do like White as an RB2/FLEX in 2023 and beyond, but I don’t believe he has the ceiling or long-term job security some are touting him to possess.
Projected 2023 Starter: Rachaad White + Day 2 Rookie + Veteran Free Agent
Jacksonville Jaguars
2022 Starter: Travis Etienne
Another one of the more controversial backs in dynasty at the moment is Travis Etienne. After skyrocketing rankings following the James Robinson trade in Week 7, Etienne posted 3-straight RB1 finishes (18.9, 25.2, 26.6) leading up to Jacksonville’s bye week. After that, things really started to slow down for Etienne as he stumbled to a mid-RB2 finish (RB17 in PPR). It was far from a bad year for Etienne, but our expectations going into 2023 have been dampened slightly. Let’s dive into that aforementioned controversy.
Doug Pederson has been on record saying that Jacksonville will add running backs this off-season. With most of the veteran free agents now off the market, it appears that Jacksonville will be candidates to draft one of the many talented backs in the 2023 class. This would be an unfortunate landing spot for both Etienne and that rookie, to say the least, as their dynasty values would certainly each take a hit. However, I am still high on Etienne and think he can overcome a minor hit in volume. There may be a nice window to buy Etienne for cheap after the NFL Draft. Jacksonville projects to have one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses in 2023, which should provide Etienne with many more touchdown opportunities than in 2022 where he only found paydirt 5 times.
I once declared Etienne as my dark horse candidate to finish as the RB1 in fantasy in 2023. I have since cooled on that take, due to the expected hit in volume, which will almost certainly cap his ceiling to a degree. However, I do still think Etienne is comfortably poised for a top-12 finish in 2023 and believe he’s a value at cost in many leagues. Etienne remains in the elite tier 2 of dynasty RB1s and is a great anchor RB1 for robust WR team builds.
Projected 2023 Starter: Travis Etienne + Day 2/Early Day 3 Rookie
Thanks for reading! Be sure to check out the rest of this series where I’ve analyzed more teams’ running back rooms. Check out some other DFF articles to dominate your leagues and take a look at my Twitter @bwinknfl for more content like this!
