It’s a well-argued sentiment, but most people agree that the most important element of long-term success in Dynasty is making value-beneficial trades. As many people much smarter than me have echoed in this space for years, the sharpest way to make your trades is to analyze the market and spot deficiencies that you can then exploit in your trade offers.
Throughout this season, each week, I will identify as many trade targets or potential sell candidates as I can based on notable movers in both my own personal ranks as well as movers in the aggregate DFF AccuRankings. I’ll also reference KeepTradeCut for crowdsourced market values as an estimate of the community’s general sentiments.
Week 1
I would argue Week 1 is one of the most important weeks for trading in the entire season. Aside from the playoffs in leagues with no trade deadlines, there are few points in the season at which your managers are more willing to capitalize on perceived sell-highs or perceived buy-lows. The important skill to master here is knowing when to overreact, as well as just how much to overreact. Let’s begin!
Ascending (Buy High)
Rashee Rice
My biggest buy of the week is none other than the new bona-fide #1 target in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s new-look Chiefs offense. All offseason, we’ve sensed the potential that this offense has. It is loaded with weapons and can attack all levels and angles of opposing defenses.
Rice looked every bit of the part in Thursday’s opener, leading the team in receptions, targets, and yards, and appears to have made a significant jump as a route runner. More importantly, his constantly improving chemistry with Patrick Mahomes and ability after the catch make him a dynamic high-volume target earner, able to succeed against man, zone, and in the scramble drill.
KTC values Rice at 34th overall, which is quite close to my personal ranking of Rice (30th overall), whereas in the DFF AccuRankings, Rice is ranked 58th overall. Some receivers close to Rice in KTC’s database include Jaylen Waddle, Drake London, and Brandon Aiyuk, all of whom I’d send for Rice without hesitation.
I’m pushing Rashee closer and closer to the elite tier 2 of WRs, among the likes of Garrett Wilson, Puka Nacua, Marvin Harrison, and Malik Nabers. While he’s not quite in that tier yet, I don’t see why he can’t get there soon- he already has the best quarterback and coach out of that group, and I think he is showing flashes of the ability to win consistently against any coverage. I’ve been aggressively acquiring Rice as much as I can before the market realizes just how high his ceiling is in this offense.
De’Von Achane
Achane just entered hallowed ground this Thursday night, and by that, I mean to say there’s officially a new top 4 running back in Dynasty. Achane’s incredible abilities as a receiver and a rusher have pushed him to skyrocket into the top-24 Dynasty asset status in my rankings. I have as much confidence in Achane as a locked-in anchor RB1 as I do in Bijan, Breece, and Gibbs.
Achane’s KTC rank of 20th overall is every bit deserved. It’s once again quite close to my ranking (24th overall) and a little bullish compared to his DFF AccuRanking of 27th overall. Regardless, Achane has officially taken the step into elite territory and is a buy-high, even at this steep price.
Brian Thomas Jr.
I’ve been wondering all offseason if there’s a serious chance that Brian Thomas Jr. could end up as the WR1 of this class, and Week 1 immediately confirmed that lingering suspicion I had in the back of my mind. To get that kind of upside in the mid-late 6th of startups this offseason always felt a little bit like stealing, but I can’t even put into words what it feels like now on the other side of Week 1.
BTJ’s KTC value has skyrocketed up to WR14 and 35th overall, which, admittedly, I think is kind of insane. I have him much more reasonably placed at WR20 and 45th overall, once again splitting the difference with his DFF AccuRanking of WR25 and 59th overall.
That market price might sound terrifyingly high, but it genuinely appears that the Jags have found themselves a true alpha WR1 in BTJ. 99th-percentile athleticism meshes with some extremely underrated and well-polished route running to synthesize what appears to be a 3-level scorer that can play X and Z and beat opposing top corners (looking at you, Jalen Ramsey). I’m still buying in on more BTJ, no matter the cost.
Overinflated (Sell High)
Jayden Daniels
Daniels finds himself in the top round and a half of startup ADP, according to KTC, with a new aggressive ranking of 17th overall. To be quite frank, I find this placement a little insane. I know that probably surprises a lot of you who know me as a true faithful Konami QB fanboy, but I simply don’t see the same upside with Daniels as a passer that I see with guys like Lamar Jackson and Anthony Richardson. Those two comparisons are the biggest culprit of Daniels’ overinflated value, which is reaching a fever pitch after what I thought was a pretty underwhelming debut. Daniels was inaccurate, struggled to read the field, and relied heavily on his legs as a crutch to compensate for the Commanders’ lack of explosiveness through the air. To me, that’s not a formula for success for a 24-year-old rookie, and I’m not overly optimistic about his play-caller or supporting cast either.
If some of those other factors were more in Daniels’ favor, perhaps I’d hold him in higher standing, but as they stand currently, I feel nothing but concern for Daniels’ long-term viability. Luckily, he can still provide a ton of fantasy value even if he never takes the next step as an NFL passer. However, I still believe his current valuation is a touch too close to his absolute ceiling for my blood.
Jaylen Waddle
One value I’ve never been able to wrap my head around in Dynasty has always been Jaylen Waddle, who has remained in the market as a top-12 option at his position. By contrast, he’s our WR17 in the DFF AccuRankings and WR24 in my personal ranks. While I do think Waddle is a supremely talented football player and tied to an elite offensive mind in Mike McDaniel, it never seemed sustainable to persist that the Dolphins could sustain 2 top-12 WRs in the same offense. And as unfortunate as it is to say, given the situation, the future of Tua Tagovailoa has a massive sway on the Dynasty value of Waddle. I’d argue Tua’s status affects Waddle more than any other weapon in the Dolphins’ offense. Their chemistry plays a huge role in Waddle’s success in attacking the middle of the field, which will be extremely difficult for any replacement quarterback. At this market value, I’d absolutely look to pivot from Waddle to guys like Rashee Rice, Nico Collins, DeVonta Smith, and even Brian Thomas Jr.
Underinflated (Buy Low)
Tank Dell
The real Texans WR1 felt like such a value all offseason in the mid-late 5th of startups. Now, after an underwhelming statistical performance in Week 1, you might still be able to get Dell on the cheap despite CJ Stroud coming back and confirming everyone’s MVP-caliber-season suspicions in his sophomore debut. Dell still only had one less target than Nico Collins but ranks 25 spots lower than him in KTC’s rankings. This simply makes no sense to me, as I don’t understand how people feel confident predicting Nico to outperform Dell by any significant margin over the course of the season. Take advantage of this discrepancy and make some offers for the cheaper of the 1A-1B duo.
Adonai Mitchell
I’ve chosen to include AD so early in this series just because I fear this may be the last week we’ll be able to consider him a buy-low. Anyone who watched the Colts last Sunday knows just how awfully close we were to witnessing an insane debut from AD, so it feels not all that crazy to suggest that he and Mr. Explosive-Play-In-A-Bottle himself (ARich reference) might link up at least once in what could end up being a pretty ugly game for a handicapped Packers team. The only thing holding the Colts back in Week 1 was the Texans’ ability to keep the Indy offense off the field. I have a strong feeling Malik Willis won’t be able to continue that trend, so in my mind, it’s only a matter of not that much time this week before Adonai arrives on the scene.
Rapidly Descending (Sell Low)
Christian McCaffrey
One of the saddest beats of the season so far has been the health of Christian McCaffrey, and I’m sad to say I have real fear that we’ve just witnessed the marked end of CMC’s dominant prime as RB1. It’s just an unfortunate truth that Achilles tendonitis is a career-altering diagnosis in many ways, as McCaffrey should never see anything close to a similar workload as he has in recent years (20.5 touches per game in 39 games straight up to this season). The Niners are skating, nay, playing full-padded hockey on extremely thin ice with this injury, as putting him in even two days too soon could lead to a rupture that could then debilitate McCaffrey’s athleticism forever.
In my eyes, while there are a ton of potential outcomes here, there are two things that must happen to ensure the long-term viability of McCaffrey’s career, which we have to remember is San Francisco’s top priority after signing him to a 4-year 20-million AAV extension. Those two things are (a) Do not rush McCaffrey back and (b) take extreme care not to overwork him. Either those conditions are met, which caps McCaffrey’s value upside to a remarkable degree, or those conditions are not met, which jeopardizes McCaffrey’s career entirely. So regardless, in Dynasty, where he’s valued as the 22nd overall asset and RB5 still, I’m strongly recommending managers to make a pivot towards younger, healthier options that are still cheaper, such as Jonathan Taylor and Travis Etienne.
That’s all I’ve got for you this week! Remember that these are based on aggregate rankings, which do not always reflect how your league values certain players. When sending offers, make sure to analyze the market of your own league and capitalize on the deficiencies that you find unique to your opposing managers. Happy trading!
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