The Rookie Rankings continue with running backs 4-6. Some of us are either comfortable for the first time all season with a bye week, fighting for the final playoff spot, or packing it in for the future. You should always be targeting rookies regardless of your situation and level of stress So we’ll discuss The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly Truth of the top 2021 NFL Draft prospects to help you gameplan your playoff push or rebuild for 2022. Make sure you’re caught up on Running Backs 7-10 here.
6 – Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
Regular Season Stats
Games Started: 5 | Games Played: 12 | PFF Grade: 64.6
Fantasy Scoring: Standard: 74 (RB37) | PPR: 92.9 (RB44)
Measurements: HT: 6’1” | WT: 210 | 40: 4.48 | Shuttle: 4.26 | Vert: 36 | Cone: 7.24
Rushing: 122/427/3 | YPG: 35.6 | YPC: 3.5 | YAC: 243 | YBC: 184 | BrkTkl: 6 | RZ%: 31.4%
Snap Percentage: 38%
Receiving: 19/152/0 | RPG: 1.6 | YPG: 12.7 | YPC: 8 | YAC: 124
Target Percentage: 7%
The Good
Chuba Hubbard was a rookie draft late-round steal for most fantasy owners after getting unexpected starts in place of the now injury-prone Christian McCaffrey. The rookie made the most out of his opportunities behind one of the worst offensive lines in football and looked better than the player that disappointed us his final season at Oklahoma State. The real value booster working here is opportunity and how much HC Matt Rhule values him. Hubbard seems to be an integral piece in the Panthers’ long-term plans despite displaying no special talent and commanding fewer targets than McCaffrey or Mike Davis.
The Bad
This offensive line is bad and it’s affected the QB play and the rushing efficiency. Hubbard has the second-lowest YBC per attempt in the league at 1.5. That’s about a step and a half before he’s forced to make a guy miss. This is concerning considering he’s ranked 27th in Rushes Per Broken Tackle. You should never cherry-pick your data but those numbers typically point to an average rusher at best when you compare his numbers to McCaffrey.
Carolina addressed blocking issues by firing OC Joe Brady. Yes, half of that statement was sarcasm but the firing bit was 100% true and brings the continuity problem to the forefront. We don’t know how the offense will look in the future from the quarterback to the offensive coordinator. We can’t be sure about CMC’s future after another season lost to injury either.
The Ugly Truth
Christian McCaffrey’s dynasty value has taken a dip and it’s time to consider Hubbard as a Dollar General Tony Pollard with much less talent and a much higher probability to start games. He’s an average runner with starter-level burst and underwhelming receiving ability but could certainly improve. His long-term value is higher than everyone below him solely for the handcuff trade value he holds with Matt Rhule as head coach.
5 – Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
Regular Season Stats
Games Started: 1 | Games Played: 9 | PFF Grade: 78.4
Fantasy Scoring: Standard: 71 (RB41)| PPR: 82.6 (RB49)
Measurements: HT: 6’ | WT: 231 | 40: 4.64 | Shuttle: 4.15 | Vert: 31.5 | Cone: 7.09
Rushing: 100/429/3 | YPG: 47.7 | YPC: 4.29 | YAC: 256 | YBC: 173 | BrkTkl: 15 | RZ%: 27.1
Snap Percentage: 22.1%
Receiving: 12/117/0 | RPG: 1.3 | YPG: 13 | YPC: 9.75 | YAC: 130
Target Percentage: 3.8%
The Good
Rhamondre Stevenson might have had a best-case draft scenario by landing with the Patriots. Most found the rookie out of Oklahoma to be a slow plodder project but have quickly come around to the player’s on-field speed working in tandem with his enormous size and underrated agility. New England’s power-run game attached to a pocket quarterback that’s playing pretty well leaves plenty of rushing opportunity for a backfield.
Stevenson hasn’t performed solely from opportunity, but due to talent as well and ranks 8th in broken tackles despite playing in only nine games. The Patriots have the angriest runner capable of creating yards on their since LeGarrette Blount and are a team that prefers to draft and grow their talent and save where possible. We all enjoyed plenty of wins with Blount. Now Imagine him with receiving ability. I don’t see them bringing in new talent during Free Agency and Stevenson looks more and more like the most talented back on the roster every week.
The Bad
Damien Harris is still the starter and the Patriots always utilize multiple backs. Most teams utilize multiple backs but New England can do frustrating things for fantasy like make the backup role a weekly competition and Stevenson is a healthy scratch for three games straight. He’s consistently suited up as the season progressed but is still in a committee. HC Bill Belichick has had an even split between Stevenson, Harris, and Bolden throughout most of the second half of the season and certainly raises concerns for any managers looking for guaranteed snap share.
The Ugly Truth
Rhamondre Stevenson is far better than anticipated and has so much upside if utilized. But that “if” holds enough weight to hold down his value until we see more next year. His situation in New England may not be ideal for fantasy purposes right now but it’s damn near perfect for real football and that leaves plenty of upside for the fantasy production to come later. The Patriots are unafraid to consolidate carries down to a guy poised for 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns and a PPR flex guy mixed in. Sony Michel just hasn’t been the guy to do be either. We’re asking a prospect to definitively win the starting role or for Harris to get injured but there’s a true gem in New England that should be on your roster if either of those things come to fruition
4 – Michael Carter, New York Jets
Regular Season Stats
Games Started: 7 | Games Played: 10 | PFF Grade: 73.3
Fantasy Scoring: Standard: 96 (RB28) | PPR: 127.8 (RB28)
Measurements: HT: 5’8″ | WT: 201 | 40: 4.50 | Shuttle: 3.98 | Vert: 34 | Cone: 6.81
Rushing: 111/430/4 | YPG: 43 | YPC: 3.87 | YAC: 225 | YBC: 205 | BrkTkl: 7 | RZ%: 43.2
Snap Percentage: 50.1
Receiving: 32/308/0 | RPG: 3.2 | YPG: 30.8 | YPC: 9.63 | YAC: 327
Target Percentage: 69.6%
The Good
Michael Carter finally took over The Jets backfield after Week 4 and then went on a PPR tear as the team’s top rusher and receiver before going on IR with a low-grade high ankle sprain. Is that level of receiving production sustainable? I highly doubt it. But we have a glimpse of his potential as he grows with the rest of the young talent around him. Carter found his own room to run on the ground and air with his elite-level vision and agility. His 40 time doesn’t impress anyone considering his size but compensates with his ability to quickly burst through cutback lanes and make defenders miss at the second and third levels of the defense. Moreover, his on-field speed is much faster than his straight line 40 time suggests.
The Bad
The Jets still have a long road before they are a good team and the biggest issue starts with their offensive line and quarterback. It could be argued that both of those issues are in the process of being corrected. Wilson has regressed from the preseason phenom back down to the raw prospect with elite arm talent while the offensive line has struggled to protect him. The combination of poor blocking and rookie growing pains has, and will, limit scoring opportunities for every skill player. Checkdowns and designed pass plays are crucial to ever be an RB1 in fantasy but it’s rarely sticky production to rely on beyond anomalies like Christian McCaffrey. Carter is very skilled but isn’t the athlete CMC is with his 4.5 speed.
The last big knock is draft capital. I’m less concerned about fourth-round capital than many but the Jets need talent wherever they can get it, including RB depth. Luckily the 2022 RB class isn’t very deep and the GM needs to pay up in several other areas beyond the backfield before a free agent could come in steal the job. But we can’t rule the possibility.
The Ugly Truth
Michael Carter is one of the best rookies in this class. He lacks the athleticism of other top prospects but makes up for it with elite vision and rushing skills. He’s proven that he can be a reliable three-down playmaker but has questionable upside until more talent is brought in and the other prospects around him develop. The Jets didn’t spend the draft capital to make him a guaranteed lock to start but his upside as a franchise building block should be undeniable.
*All advanced stats VIA ProFootball Reference
Think I’m too high on Rhamondre? Let me know and follow up on the top 3 RBs at @SportsJag!
