The NFL Draft is one of the more polarizing events during the NFL offseason. Rookies are coming into the league for a chance at prominent roles right out of the gate for NFL teams looking to upgrade their positions in order to strengthen their squads. This is also important for fantasy managers. As we get closer and closer to league drafts or rookie drafts in Dynasty leagues, new rookies impact the fantasy value of veteran players on football rosters across the league. This can also make offseason trades more difficult.
Understanding what player’s fantasy stock goes up and down can help fantasy managers regardless of league format to have a better idea of how to move throughout the offseason and in fantasy drafts. So let’s take a look at a few “Risers and Fallers” of the 2023 offseason. I mean, that is the title of the article, right? Let’s get to it.
The Risers
Tony Pollard, RB – Dallas Cowboys
If there’s one player that benefited from their front office’s lack of attention to the skill positions during the Draft, it was Pollard. Pollard was already a 1,000-yard rusher during the 2022 season while splitting time with Ezekiel Elliott. Now with Elliott released from the team this offseason, Pollard has the Cowboys backfield to himself meaning he could have a real “bell cow” role coming up in 2023. During the 2022 season, Pollard split work with Elliott to 49% to 48% in the snap share department. Even with that kind of split, Pollard was able to remain efficient on the ground.
Pollard averaged 5.2 yards per attempt on the ground and 15.6 fantasy PPG allowing him to finish as the RB8 on the season. With no other back able to challenge Pollard for snaps heading into the new season (so far), Pollard keeps a lock on his role if not seeing an increase in fantasy value after the draft.
Anthony Richardson, QB – Indianapolis Colts
Don’t be mistaken, while veteran players are impacted by the influx of rookie talent that doesn’t mean that the rookies don’t see added value either. Anthony Richardson is one of those talents. Richardson landed with the Colts during the 2023 NFL draft as the fourth-overall selection and it couldn’t have been one of the better landing spots for a quarterback. Richardson lands on a team that could be poised to challenge for the division even though the quarterback is young. After the debacle of Matt Ryan under center, Richardson inherits a brand new wide receiver corps with Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and fellow rookie Josh Downs, the latter expecting to be the Colts’ new slot wide receiver. And we can’t leave out Jonathan Taylor, one of the more prolific running backs in the league to date.
On Richardson’s end, his athleticism has been widely talked about. His rushing ability was highlighted during the NFL Combine but his passing and precision during the rookie minicamp and OTA’s have garnered notice from the Colts’ new coaching staff including new head coach Shane Steichen. While Richardson hasn’t had the body of work at the college level, he still managed to throw over 2,500 yards and 17 touchdowns with just nine interceptions. If Steichen can bring out the talent in an offense similar to what he was able to do with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia, Richardson should be a top rookie add-in Dynasty drafts alone.
Geno Smith, QB – Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith already had a career season in 2022 where he threw for 4,282 yards with a 30:11 touchdown to interception ratio but if you were able to grab him off waivers, you were sitting on a league-winning quarterback that finished as the QB5 with a 15.9 fantasy PPG average. Smith already had Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf to throw to, not to mention now-second-year Kenneth Walker, but Smith now gets arguably the best rookie wide receiver in the draft in Jaxon Smith-Njigba as well as new rookie running back Zach Charbonnett.
With these new additions to the team and a promising return after a top-5 fantasy finish, Geno Smith should start to see more love from fantasy managers that are more willing to wait on quarterbacks later in the draft. Smith is ranked as the QB15 according to Underdog’s ADP ranking which is a pretty solid spot heading into draft season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Geno Smith’s rank climb a few spots as we get closer to the Rredraft season.
Garrett Wilson, WR – New York Jets
There may be no other player that hit the jackpot this season as Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Not only did his team land former Green Bay Packer and former MVP Aaron Rodgers in one of the biggest trades that went down this year but he also got solid additions to the receiving corps to help him out. The Jets added Allen Lazard and traded for Mecole Hardman. These new additions as well as the returning Breece Hall, who suffered a torn ACL during his rookie season, are back in the fold Wilson is one of the hottest second-year wide receivers heading into the 2023 season.
Wilson was able to see 147 targets in 2022, catching passes from the likes of Mike White, Joe Flacco, and worst of all Zach Wilson. Wilson in particular was one of the worst passers among quarterbacks last season with a league-worst 67.1% in On Target Percentage. With the addition of Aaron Rodgers to the team (and him being serious about the offseason this time around), Wilson is another hot target for fantasy managers this season.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB – New England Patriots
Similar to Tony Pollard, Rhamondre Stevenson saw no additions to the running back position in the Patriots’ backfield during the Draft. Former Jets running back James Robinson also was released by the team so if there were any thoughts of a shared backfield of sorts, they may be melting away at this point. Stevenson should be looking to have a commanding lead over the backfield for the Patriots’ offense in 2023.
Stevenson had a monster season last year, finishing as the RB7 in PPR formats. Stevenson averaged 14.7 fantasy PPG, 11th best among running backs, and totaled over 1,400 from scrimmage with six total touchdowns. Of course, you want more scoring opportunities out of your running backs as Stevenson saw just 35.8 fantasy points from inside the 20-yard line as the Patriots’ offense was “middle of the pack” in points per game with 21.6. Despite that, Stevenson should continue to see the most usage in the Patriots’ offense.
The Fallers
Keenan Allen, WR – Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers’ wide receiver room needed an upgrade after both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missed time last season due to injuries. This also left Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert without his top two options for big parts of the season. Enter TCU wide receiver, Quentin Johnston. Johnston was one of my favorite wide receivers to talk about heading into the Draft and now lands on one of the best passing offenses in the league. While some might think that this selection could impact Mike Williams, I think it goes to the other end with Keenan Allen.
Now I won’t say that Johnston will outright replace Allen this coming season but this could be a move set in place on the long side for Mike Williams and Quentin Johnston to step up if and when the Chargers decide to move on from Allen. Allen has just one more year left on his current contract with a team out in the 2024 season. Allen isn’t getting any younger either at 31 years old. Having already dealt with a host of injuries over the course of his career, it could be a signal that the Chargers are planning to go younger as soon as next season.
Tyler Lockett, WR – Seattle Seahawks
Sharing a similar fate as Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett could also be on the chopping block as the Seattle Seahawks grabbed up a young wide receiver out of the Draft in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I mentioned earlier how this move benefitted quarterback Geno Smith but the addition of JSN was bound to affect someone and that looks to be Tyler Lockett. Lockett did have a better season than Keenan Allen in 2022 and has held up pretty well over the course of his career. He finished as the WR13 last season, averaging 14.8 fantasy points per game in PPR formats, and will be turning 31 in September.
However, with the addition of JSN, targets could start to pull away from Lockettt and move to JSN this very season. Lockett also has cap hits of $26.7M in 2024 and 2025. With that kind of change on the books, the Seahawks could decide to move on from Lockett next season and go with the much younger draft option in JSN. Training camp will be very interesting to see how they’ll use the young wide receiver this season.
Tyler Allgeier, RB – Atlanta Falcons
This one really hurt because I was a fan of Tyler Allegier last season coming out of the Draft. Despite splitting time with Cordarrelle Patterson, Allegier was the more dominant running back for the Falcons. Allegeier averaged 4.9 yards per carry and was one of the top rushing rookies in 2022. Allegeier even had eight games with double-digit fantasy points with a nice four-game stretch at the end of the season. From weeks 15-18, Allegeier was the RB5 averaging 17 fantasy PPG. That kind of production might have helped win your fantasy leagues.
Alas, it was a good thing while it lasted as the Falcons grabbed stud rookie running back Bijan Robinson with the eighth overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft. Taking a running back that early usually signals that the workload will shift from Tyler Allegeier to Bijan Robinson. And with Robinson able to do everything from running out of the backfield to catching passes in various positions, Allegeier’s’ fantasy value shifts to a meer handcuff role this coming season.
D’Onta Foreman/Khalil Herbert, RB – Chicago Bears
Tyler Allegeier isn’t the only running back whose fantasy value may take a hit in 2023 by a Texas running back. D’Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert could also see their stocks hit the skids with the addition of Roschon Johnson. Foreman was an offseason acquisition during the free agency period, signing with the Bears on a one-year deal. Khalil Herbert was expected to at least get the first crack at being the new lead back but the added competition for reps puts a damper on that possibility. Herbert could still start the season as the lead back and share work with Foreman.
But the real threat to both looks to be Roschon Johnson. Johnson’s body of work might not seem impressive by the numbers but that has more to do with Bijan Robinson being the lead man for the Texas offense. Johnson is a good back in his own right. The 6’2”, 233 lbs. running back averaged no less than five YPC behind Bijan Robinson and was a capable pass catcher when targeted. Johnson was selected in the fourth round but that might not hold to how valuable he really is. In an offense that has a rushing threat like Justin Fields, the bigger back in Roschon Johnson could possibly steal the show if he can get the opportunity in camp to showcase what he can really do.
Davante Adams, WR – Las Vegas Raiders
I know you weren’t expecting to see this guy’s name on the list but I have to be transparent in the fact that I have had reservations with Adams after the Raiders front office pulled the plug on the Derek Carr experiment. Davante Adams by himself is still likely to be drafted as a top-end fantasy wide receiver in most fantasy leagues and he should still see a larger target share than the rest of the receiving options. But Adams should still take a hit in fantasy value all the same. Why?
Well, he’s received a downgrade when it comes to his quarterback. Derek Carr is out and Jimmy Garoppolo, pending an examination of his foot, looks to be the next quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders. Jimmy G hasn’t always been able to support strong wide receiver play. Over the last three seasons, only Deebo Samuel has been able to finish as a top wide receiver. No other wide receiver for the 49ers has finished in the top-25 over that span either outside of Samuel’s WR2 finish in 2021. Josh Jacobs also hasn’t signed his franchise tag as he’s looking for more security from the organization as well. If Jimmy Garoppolo is asked to throw the ball without a running game, it could be a long season for Davante Adams even with a large target share.
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