#PLANTYOURFLAG
We here at Dynasty Football Factory pride ourselves on giving you true actionable content with real substance instead of halfway stances and positions on players. The hashtag #PlantYourFlag speaks to this. Our writers and rankers pride themselves on being willing to stand up and declare something that you, our readers, can take something from. When this happens, though, sometimes our rankers will disagree on players. Instead of seeing this as a negative, we see this as a positive.
Joe Memmolo (@DFF_JoeMem), our Director of Rankings, keeps a tight ship and maintains strict quality control on our rankings to ensure our DFF members get a top-quality product. We embrace differences, but Joe wants to understand the why. In this series, Joe interviews our ranker to understand why they have planted their flag on a particular player.
Diontae Johnson
Joe Memmolo:
Chris, you have Diontae Johnson ranked as your 42nd player overall and 17th-ranked wide receiver. He is ranked 64th overall in the consensus ranks. In startup drafts, he is going as the WR37 overall. Why are you so high on Diontae Johnson?
Chris Museezer:
Joe, I am so glad you asked this. Diontae Johnson has been my most acquired player this offseason. There are many reasons I am high on Diontae Johnson:
Here are a few:
1. He is just one year removed from being the WR 8 overall in Fantasy Points Per Game catching passes from a washed-up Ben Roethlisberger
2. Here is the entire list of players with 140 or more targets each of the last three years:
Diontae Johnson
3. Last year was a perfect storm of negative circumstances regarding why he took a step back in fantasy ppg. For starters, he played with a rookie quarterback behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. Both of those are improved for 2023.
4. Last year, Diontae set the dubious record for most targets in a single season without a touchdown. We should expect serious positive regression here, as he had eight and seven touchdowns in the two prior seasons. Touchdowns tend to be one of the least sticky metrics year to year.
5. Last year, Johnson had the second most unrealized air yards in the entire NFL.
6. Unlike touchdowns, target share is one of the most sticky metrics year to year and is also highly predictive for fantasy points. Johnson was 13th last year in target share at a healthy 27.0%.
7. Other impressive stats for Johnson included the ninth most routes run, 14th most air yards, and 11th most route wins.
Johnson is 26 years old and entering the prime of his receiving career. Look for a bounce-back campaign and a top-20 fantasy finish.
Matthew Stafford
Joe Memmolo:
Chris, thanks for that detailed explanation of your pro-stance on Diontae. Looking at quarterbacks, one, in particular, stands out to me. You are the highest of any of the rankers on Matthew Stafford. He looked washed last year. Why are you in on Stafford?
Chris Museezer:
Joe, well the main reason I am in on Stafford is price. He is currently being drafted as the QB30 overall in the 11th round of 12-team Superflex Dynasty Startups. I also don’t believe he is washed. He was certainly injured last year. He was dealing with a spinal cord contusion and elbow injury. I am by no means a medical expert, so I rely on people who are.
If they are saying he is good to go, then we have a player who finished as the QB11 in 2021 in Fantasy Points Per Game. Stafford has eight QB1 (Top 12) finishes in fantasy points per game. He also has a healthy Cooper Kupp this year, despite not much beyond that.
Further, Stafford has a lot of incentive to keep playing with $30 million in yearly cash through 2025. The contract doesn’t have reasonable team-outs for a dead cap hit until 2025. He has three years of relative job security if his health holds up.
Ultimately, you can do a lot worse than Stafford as your QB3. He is also a good placeholder for a team that may have Kyler Murray.
Greg Dortch
Joe Memmolo:
Chris, let’s go really deep on this one. Why do you have Greg Dortch 50 spots higher than any other ranker? Most rankers don’t even have them making their rankings list.
Chris Museezer:
For whatever reason, I tend to always be higher on these little guys than others. I believe if they can play, they can play.
Dortch, at 5’7″, is surely relegated to a slot role for the Cardinals, but this is a team that embraces the little guy. Marquise Brown 5’9″, Rondale Moore 5’8″, and Dortch 5’7″ easily make up the smallest starting receiver group in the NFL, and it’s not particularly close. The Cardinals just released target hog DeAndre Hopkins due to the depth at the position and his hefty cap hit. I also believe this to be a sign that they believe in Dortch.
Dortch led all wide receivers in the NFL in average separation last year, per Next Gen Stats. We saw this from Diontae Johnson before his breakout year in 2020.
Here is another impressive stat. Dortch closed his season with three consecutive games played with 10+ targets. Here is a list of players who did not have a stretch all season with three consecutive games of 10+ targets:
Stefon Diggs
Over his last four games, Dortch averaged 13.9 fantasy points per game.
Granted, it is a very small sample, but we are talking about a player who is free here to acquire. And 13.9 ppg, if sustained for an entire season, would have ranked 21st last year.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. Please consider our DFF annual membership. See all the benefits of the annual membership here. It truly is the best value in the Dynasty industry. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy.
