Every year in fantasy football, we see a handful of players that far exceed their projected fantasy output and help carry fantasy owners to a league championship. Last year, Josh Jacobs, Amari Cooper, and Jamaal Williams were a few names that outperformed expectations and were integral to many fantasy championship rosters. As Dynasty owners, we are always looking for market inefficiencies, trying to acquire that asset that could skyrocket in value. At the same time, we have to find a balance between immediate production and longevity. In this article, I’m giving you one name from each skill position currently undervalued that could become a “league-winner” for your team, either in 2023 or in the future. I will also discuss each player’s outlook from a Dynasty perspective and whether it makes sense for you to buy based on roster construction.
Diontae Johnson
According to BulletProof ADP, Diontae Johnson is currently the WR37 in Superflex Dynasty formats. This is a massive discount for a guy that has been a consistent target hog since 2020. Here’s a tweet by Chris Museezer from our DFF team, putting Diontae’s receiving opportunity into perspective:
The consensus in the Dynasty community is that Diontae is not a wide receiver you can trust to put in your starting lineups. Much of this stems from the inefficiency of his 2022 season and the fact he didn’t find the end zone once. But at the same time, the Steelers were dead last in pass TDs last year with 12, so there weren’t many TD receptions to be had. Before you write Johnson off, let’s dive deeper into his WR rankings for 2022.
2022 WR Rankings:
- 6th in targets (147)
- 13th in target share (27%)
- 6th in route participation (98.1%)
- 14th in air yards (1,555)
- 13th in receptions (86)
- 2nd in unrealized air yards (875)
- 4th in juke rate (15.1%)
- 11th in total route wins (240)
Diontae finished in the top-15 in all these metrics, yet he’s going as the WR37 in Dynasty startups. I understand he was wildly inefficient, and this Steelers offense was terrible last year, but the opportunity is still there. Kenny Pickett showed significant improvement as the season progressed, and we can expect that trend to continue into Year 2.
I don’t expect Kenny to be a top-10 passer in 2022, but he will throw for well more than 7 TDs over 11 games. This Steelers offense will improve significantly, and Diontae’s fantasy production should follow suit. The one concern here is drops. Johnson had nine last season for a drop rate of 6.1%. I’d like to see this number reduced, but if he continues to get 140+ targets, I’m not overly concerned. I like Johnson as a “win now and later” guy in the Dynasty, and I will be grabbing all the shares I can at his current price point.
Darren Waller
Darren Waller was recently traded to the Giants this offseason for a 2023 3rd-round pick, which turned into Tre Tucker, WR from Cincinnati. We haven’t seen Tre step foot on an NFL field yet, but I feel comfortable saying the Giants won that trade.
This New York receiving corps is wide open; there are no true WR1s. I love the opportunity for Waller to step in and be the top target for Daniel Jones in 2023. And Jones has had nothing but high praise for the veteran tight end.
Here are the current receiving weapons for Daniel Jones outside of Waller:
WRs: Wan’Dale Robinson, Jalin Hyatt, Parris Campbell, Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard
TEs: Daniel Bellinger, Tommy Sweeney
No names from that list strike me as someone that can go out there and collect 80+ receptions and 1,000+ receiving yards. As a result, Waller may be relied on heavily in the passing game next year. Let’s look at Waller’s fantasy PPG finishes in the past four seasons and his TE rankings.
Fantasy PPG:
- 2022: 9.4 (10th)
- 2021: 12.1 (6th)
- 2020: 17.4 (2nd)
- 2019: 13.8 (5th)
Waller has been a TE1 from a PPG perspective every year since 2019. He also finished as a top-3 TE overall in 2019 and 2020. Injuries have been a big issue every other season, including 2022. But Waller still flashed some promising numbers while he was on the field. Last season, he led all tight ends in aDOT (average depth of target), was 2nd in yards per reception, and 5th in yards per target. Waller runs deep routes beyond the linebackers, which is what we love to see in our fantasy TEs.
Waller is going as the TE10 in startups in the early 9th round. We’ve seen from a PPG perspective TE10 is his floor. If Waller stays healthy, his ceiling will be a top-3 TE in 2023. This is well worth the price, provided you are contending for 2023. Waller will be 31 next season, so steer clear if you’re a rebuilding team. He has an incredible ceiling in 2023, but beyond that is a question mark.
Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray may not be a league-winner for you in 2023 due to the ACL injury, but the discount you can buy him at is ridiculous. According to Bulletproof ADP, Kyler has fallen to 3.02 in startup drafts in the past month, going as the QB13 overall. Below is where Kyler has finished for QBs in fantasy PPG since 2020. For 2022, I am excluding Week 14, as Kyler tore his ACL early in the game and only threw one pass.
Fantasy PPG:
- 2022: 5th
- 2021: 4th
- 2020: 3rd
Kyler has proven, when healthy, he’s a top-5 fantasy QB or better. Yet, because of the significance of his injury and his 2023 outlook, he is being discounted nearly two rounds in startup drafts. Kyler isn’t necessarily a QB you should be looking to acquire if you’re contending for a 2023 championship, but grabbing Kyler is a no-brainer if you’re a rebuilder or a team with plenty of youth.
There may be some questions regarding Kyler’s ability to put up fantasy points on the ground when he returns because of the torn ACL, and I do understand that concern to an extent. Still, I’ll roll the dice based on the current price point. Kyler has made a living improvising and creating something out of nothing, and I don’t expect that to change much in the future. In addition, Kyler is a more than adequate passer and can pour on points through the air. The Cardinals were top-3 in pace of play in three of four seasons with Kyler as their QB. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to score when he returns to the field.
On that note, the Cardinals are in full-tank mode. If they get the first pick in the 2024 draft and select Caleb Williams, Kyler may be off to greener pastures. If they don’t take Caleb and Kyler stays in Arizona, they should have an army of youth and talent arriving. Arizona has 11 draft picks in 2024, including two firsts and six total picks in the first three rounds. The team landscape will look drastically different in Arizona a year from now.
Bet on the talent here. Kyler has established his fantasy dominance. His talent should trump any concerns about injuries or lack of a supporting cast. Kyler is only 25 years old; he has a long career ahead of him. If you’re a rebuilding team, put out a feeler for Kyler today. He can be a league winner and a staple to your team in 2024 and beyond.
Tyler Allgeier
No, I don’t live under a rock. Yes, I’m aware Atlanta took Bijan Robinson with the eighth overall pick in the draft. I’m also aware that Tyler Allgeier will not win you any leagues as long as Bijan is healthy. However, Allgeier may be an RB1 in fantasy if Bijan goes down.
Atlanta led the NFL in rushing attempts with 559 last season. 458 of those attempts were by non-QBs. Even if Bijan hits 300 rush attempts as a rookie, plenty of meat remains on the bone in this backfield. Atlanta loves to run the ball. Allgeier is an elite handcuff option (maybe the best in the NFL) with some standalone fantasy value. But if Bijan goes down to injury, Allgeier could be a league winner for you. He’s going in the late 12th of startup drafts now, around players like Courtland Sutton and Chase Brown. Allgeier has a ceiling that’s impossible to pass up that late in the draft.
Let’s look at Allgeier’s numbers from his rookie campaign. He was the workhorse for Atlanta in 2022, exceeding 1,000 yards rushing. While his advanced metrics weren’t outstanding, he was a top-15 RB in rush yards, evaded tackles, juke rate, breakaway runs (carries of 15+ yards), and red zone touches. He certainly showed the promise and talent to lead a backfield if called upon.
Allgeier is not a generational talent, but the volume that would be available to him if something happens to Bijan makes him an excellent “buy” candidate that could pay big dividends in the fantasy playoffs. Even if it doesn’t pan out in 2023, Allgeier is only 23 years old and entering Year 2 in the NFL. Situations can change quickly. Look to buy Allgeier at a discount and stash him away for better days.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @DynastySavant. Until next time, keep grinding out there, Dynasty family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
