The New England Patriots have had a terrible track record at drafting wide receivers. We have all seen it. From Chad Jackson to Josh Boyce and everything in between, receiver was never something that the Patriots excelled at in the draft. So, it was a bit surprising seeing them draft N’Keal Harry with a late first-round pick.
Expectations and Performance
The expectations were always going to be astronomical since the last first-round receiver taken by the Patriots was Terry Glenn and that was a team coached by Bill Parcells in 1996. On top of that, he was thrust into a team that was aging quickly and led by the legend himself, Tom Brady. Brady is great, there is no denying that. However, what he expects from his receiver group is almost unattainable in a single season, let alone as a rookie. That situation compounded with injuries early on in training camp and lingered into the preseason. This landed Harry on injured reserve.
Harry had a very disappointing rookie season, to say the least. But all the traits he possessed coming in still remain and popped up on tape throughout his limited-production season. Coming out of college, NFL.com had Harry as a guy that would win contested catch opportunities outside the numbers, could body up opponents, and win with ball skills. Looking back at Harry’s 12 catches, these traits stick out. Harry only played seven games. Even in limited games, he wasn’t targeted nearly enough to be a factor in the New England offense last season. Per Pro Football Reference, he only had 24 targets in seven games and received over a 58% snap share only once in those seven games.
Add in the fact that Harry only played in one preseason game and then was on IR until Week 11. You can understand why he didn’t have a great season and why his targets and snap share were so low. Harry is healthy and gets to start anew, with a new QB, in a new-look offense that can better utilize his skills as a big-bodied WR and treat him more as a focal point. Jarrett Stidham, at this point, seems like he will get every opportunity to start. He has had his fair share of big targets like Darius Slayton and Seth Williams at Auburn.
Looking to the Future
This seems like an opportune time for the Patriots to dumb down the offense and keep it simple. Having Harry on the field when the Patriots are running the ball also seems like an advantage since he is such a good run blocker at WR. He also showed some chops running the ball himself last year five carries for 49 yards.
The sample size is low. Harry’s ability and size are there still and the opportunity, I believe, gets a boost with Brady gone. This year, the offense becomes less complex and it becomes more relaxed. There is less pressure on younger receivers to see what Brady is seeing. The upside you get is a 1st round draft pick with a pedigree who is now healthy and will finally get to show what he has to offer. Consider last year a redshirt season with the Patriots. New England, and Josh McDaniels more than anyone, knew what they drafted with Harry.
Current Value
His value in fantasy depends on who you are asking. According to Fantasy Football Calculator he is going around the very end of the seventh round in a 12-team league. According to Fantasy Pros he is the WR 58. While there is some variance on where you can get him, if he is there in the seventh round of a draft, I am not shying away. He is a guy you can target and take a shot on in the middle rounds and get WR2 production out of if he becomes everything the Patriots hoped for coming out of the draft.
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