Welcome to part two of my weekly publication!
As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense.
In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
With that, let’s get started!
Last Week: 0-0
Overall: 0-0
Longshot: 0-0
Philip Rivers: Under 240.5 Passing Yards (-112)
It’s true that Philip Rivers’ numbers took a massive hit last year. He nearly doubled his interception total and posted his lowest passer rating in over a decade. But this pick is not based on Rivers’ ability, but rather just how putrid the Jaguars appear to be heading into Week One.
My prediction for this game would be a game flow very similar to the Chiefs-Texans matchup we saw Thursday night. The Colts, a team already favoring the run, will take the lead early against an outmatched Jaguars squad and lean on the run game to preserve their lead. Much like the Chiefs, I’m sure the Colts are also anxious to get a look at their rookie running back as well.
It is worth noting that Colts’ quarterbacks only cleared 240 passing yards five times last year, and all five of those were either losses or one-possession victories. I’m not saying that Rivers is Jacoby Brissett or Brian Hoyer, but this version of the Colts has not historically posted gaudy passing numbers.
Gardner Minshew: Over 0.5 Interceptions (-105)
Let’s stick with the Quarterbacks in this AFC South matchup.
I will hand it to Gardner Minshew; he took relatively good care of the ball during the Minshew Mania craze, posting a 21:6 TD-INT ratio. However, I’m still picking him to throw at least one interception to the Colts’ defense.
Admittedly, this pick stems from the same game flow logic described in the Philip Rivers pick. The Jaguars should already be favoring the pass given the recent release of Leonard Fournette. Falling behind to the Colts early should only mean more aggressive passes from Minshew. Minshew had some struggles with accuracy and his tendency to throw to his first read or scramble resulted in a higher rate of turnover-worthy plays. Given all this, it would not shock me to see an errant pass wind up in the hands of a Colts defender.
Sports Illustrated did a nice in-depth look into Minshew’s capabilities as a passer if you would like a deeper look into why I made this pick. I recommend checking it out!
D.K. Metcalf: Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
D.K. Metcalf burst onto the scene last year, nearly reaching 1000 yards in his rookie season. He cleared 60 or more yards in over half of his games in 2019. He also boasted a 15.5 yards per catch average, good for 13th in the league.
The Falcons lost longtime starter Desmond Trufant to Detroit and are now relying on the duo of Isaiah Oliver and rookie AJ Terrell to man their starting corner spots. The pair are not exactly inspiring confidence, however, with Pro Football Focus grading the Falcons’ secondary 30th out of 32 teams.
It is very likely that Metcalf builds on the immense success he experienced his rookie year. His continued development, plus the tantalizing matchup, have me strongly favoring the over on his yardage totals in Week One.
Week 1 Longshot Pick
Austin Hooper to Score Touchdown (+325)
For as much of a red zone threat as Austin Hooper was with the Falcons, it’s amazing to me that he has some of the lowest odds for a Browns pass-catcher to score in this game. In 2019, Hooper recorded 21.7% of the Falcon’s red zone targets. All six of his touchdowns came when his team was inside the 20. Simply put, when the Falcons were in the red zone, Hooper was a main attraction.
His new team, the Cleveland Browns, draw a tough matchup this week going against the AFC North Champion Baltimore Ravens. However, while the Ravens are a good team, they are relatively untested in the middle of the defense. The Ravens should be starting two rookies at the linebacker spots. While they will likely become significant contributors to this team in the long term, this is still their very first NFL game.
The Browns did not make Austin Hooper the highest-paid tight end in history (at the time) to not utilize his skills in the red zone. Don’t be scared just because the Ravens boasted a top defense last year. The rookies covering Hooper will need some time to acclimate to the NFL game.
For more from Stephen, check out his archive and follow him @DFF_Biscuits.
