Welcome to part two of my weekly publication!
As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense.
In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
With that, let’s get started!
Recap of Week 8
How unfortunate. If only the Harris line had published in time we’d be doing celebrations for getting on track. Unfortunately, as it was only a bonus pick, I’m not counting it on our official tally leading to another 1-2 week.
Last Week: 1-2
Overall: 10-14
Longshot: 0-8
Alvin Kamara Anytime Touchdown (-125)
At this point, is there any doubt that this offense runs through Alvin Kamara? I mean, he’s one of only two non-QBs that are getting any MVP love right now. Though you may be worried that both Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are expected to play this Sunday night, Kamara actually scored all of his touchdowns this season in Weeks 1 – 4 while either of them was active. Even against a stingy Buccaneers’ defense, expect Kamara to celebrate in the endzone at least once this Sunday.
Tyler Lockett Over 5.5 Receptions (-112)
The D.K. Metcalf hype train is full steam ahead which means inflated lines for Metcalf and great value across the board for other Seahawks’ players. That’s why we’ll be taking a hard look at Tyler Lockett this week.
Lockett is playing roughly 55% of his snaps from the slot this season. Meanwhile, Buffalo has allowed some fairly absurd stats to slot receivers this year. Given that Metcalf should draw a lot of Tre’Davious White this week, I’d think Lockett should have an easy opportunity to cash on both his reception and yardage total.
Cole Beasley Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-106)
Flipping over to the other side of the ball, Cole Beasley also presents great value at over 50.5 receiving yards. Beasley has accumulated 41 receptions for 494 yards this season, good for 61.8 yards per game. He is second on the team in receiving yards behind Stefon Diggs.
The Seahawks’ defense, meanwhile, has been atrocious against the pass. They are worst in the league giving up, on average, 358.7 passing yards per game. The next-worst team is Atlanta and they are only giving up 311.4. Yikes.
Given the juicy matchup and past success, I would take a good look at the over on both Beasley’s receptions total (4.5) and his receiving yards this week.
Week 9 Longshot Pick
Derrick Henry First Touchdown (+400)
For more from Stephen, check out his archive and follow him @DFF_Biscuits.
