Welcome to part two of my weekly publication!
As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense.
In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
With that, let’s get started!
Recap of Week 11
Look mom, we did it! We finally overcame a mid-season slump to crawl back to .500 on the year. Somehow, we did it on the backs of two of the least exciting players out there in Nelson Agholor and Devin Singletary, but who’s complaining! We’ll look to keep the positive momentum rolling in Week 13 and finish the season out strong.
Last Week: 2-1
Overall: 18-18
Longshot: 0-12
Robert Woods Under 6.5 Receptions (-157)
A spicy one out of the gate! I understand that Woods has been on an absolute heater of late, recording at least 7 catches and 12 targets in each of his past two games. But those were against two top-10 run defenses in Tampa Bay and San Francisco. This week, he goes up against an Arizona team ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed.
Again, Woods is on a hot streak, so I wouldn’t fault you for disagreeing with me on this one. But remember that he’s only gone above 6.5 receptions three times all season and each was a team that was top 10 against the run. Look for a more ground-heavy attack from the Rams this week and a good-but-not-great game from Woods.
David Montgomery Under 61.5 Rushing Yards (-124)
Last week’s 103-yard outing left many Montgomery truthers chomping at the bit for his next matchup against the Detroit Lions. After all, Detroit is giving up the fifth-most rushing yards this season. However, on closer look, they have not been kind to lead backs in recent matchups:
- Duke Johnson (HOU) – 9 carries, 37 yards, 4.1 YPC,
- Mike Davis (CAR) – 19 carries, 64 yards, 3.4 YPC
- Antonio Gibson (WAS) – 13 carries, 45 yards, 3.5 YPC
Admittedly, none of these teams have been particularly great. But, neither have the Bears who rank dead-last in rushing attempts in the league.
Montgomery just barely cleared this total in Week One against the Lions but I’m not persuaded. Look for him to fall back to Earth in Week 13.
Cam Newton Under 204.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Oh man, three straight unders? I must be getting cocky.
As long as this number remains above 200, I’m taking it. The Patriots have the third-fewest passing attempts, fourth-fewest passing yards per game, and fourth-fewest completions in the league. The Chargers, despite their flaws, are actually fairly solid against the pass.
Newton has only eclipsed this total when playing the worst passing defenses in the NFL (Houston, Jets, Seattle). He’s not getting it this week.
Week 13 Longshot Pick
Devante Parker First Touchdown (+750)
I’m done doing analysis on these. This is a decent shot. Feel free to take it.
For more from Stephen, check out his archive and follow him @DFF_Biscuits.
