Welcome to part two of my weekly publication!
As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense.
In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
With that, let’s get started!
Recap of Week 10
Finally, a positive week! Davante Adams continued his scoring streak while the Raiders’ defense lived up to their low expectations. Hopefully, this is a sign of things to come.
Last Week: 2-1
Overall: 13-17
Longshot: 0-10
Taysom Hill Anytime Touchdown (+150)
What a fun story, I almost have to latch on! Following the injury to Drew Brees, Taysom Hill was named the starting quarterback for the Saints’ Week 11 game against the Falcons. Even before Hill was named the starting quarterback, he was garnering significant red zone looks. He is fourth on the team with 14 and has had six in the past two weeks. Now that he’s taking a majority of the snaps, it stands to reason that he’ll see even more action in the red zone. You’re getting plus money on this one too, making it an attractive player prop for this week.
Jake Luton Under 227.5 Passing Yards (-167)
It’s been a tale of two starts for Jake Luton’s NFL career. In his first matchup against the Texans’ woeful defense he went 26-for-38 and 304 yards. In his second matchup against the Packers’ defense, he only completed 18 of his 35 attempts for 169 yards.
The Steelers’ defense is a top-five unit against the pass. They are only allowing an average of 211.3 passing yards per game. Look for Luton to perform similarly against the Steelers as he did against Green Bay.
Nick Chubb Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
First thing’s first, weather report! High of 47 with a 100% chance of precipitation, because why not Cleveland?
Apparently, this is a thing we have to monitor in Cleveland week-to-week now. But, it does support the narrative that this should be a run-heavy game. Baker Mayfield has not been great this year and the team recently lost starting right tackle Jack Conklin to the COVID-19 list. Add that to the fact that the Eagles are 26th in run defense this season, and you have a recipe for a huge Nick Chubb game.
Week 11 Longshot Pick
Nick Chubb to Score 2+ TDs
Let’s double down, as the Eagles have given up the second-most rushing touchdowns to opponents this year. All aboard the Nick Chubb hype train!
For more from Stephen, check out his archive and follow him @DFF_Biscuits.
