Welcome to part two of my weekly publication!
As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense.
In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
With that, let’s get started!
Recap of Week 9
Sigh…While the Seattle-Buffalo game was a shootout, as expected, the receptions and yards seemed to go to every player besides the ones we selected. At least Kamara was nice enough to score a touchdown to keep us from going 0-3 on the week.
Last Week: 1-2
Overall: 11-16
Longshot: 0-9
Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown (-200)
A little outdated, but the tweet above proves my point just fine. All Davante Adams does is score touchdowns. He is currently tied for second in the league with eight touchdowns and has scored the first touchdown for Green Bay in the last three weeks. Facing the worst DVOA-adjusted defense in the league, Adams should not only be a good bet to score but also a good bet to score first (+475).
Drew Lock Over 254.5 Yards (-112)
Drew lock has been on somewhat of a roll these past three weeks. Since Week 7, Lock has posted his three best games in terms of pure yardage output. Last week against the Falcons, Lock was able to post a season-high 313 yards.
While the Falcons are certainly one of the worst teams against the pass, Lock’s opponent this week is not much better. The Raiders have allowed the 7th most passing yards this year giving up, on average, 267.1 yards per game. I’ll side with Lock in this one given the soft matchup and his recent success.
Travis Fulgham Over 4.5 Receptions (-121)
Is there a cooler success story than Travis Fulgham? From getting waived from practice squads to his ascension as the Eagles’ top receiver, Fulgham has certainly experienced a roller coaster of a 2020 season. He is doing the most with his opportunity, too. Check out his targets since Week 5 of the season:
- Week 5: 13 targets
- Week 6: 10 targets
- Week 7: 11 targets
- Week 8: 7 targets
The Eagles are coming off a bye and face a defense giving up an average of 25 completions a game. I will happily take the over on Fulgham’s reception total in Week 10.
Week 10 Longshot Pick
Rashard Higgins Anytime Touchdown (+300)
The Texans are giving up more than two touchdowns per game against their opponents. Last we saw the Browns (terrible weather game not included), Higgins was lighting up scoreboards and scoring touchdowns in OBJ’s absence. Against a weaker defense, why not take a shot?
For more from Stephen, check out his archive and follow him @DFF_Biscuits.
