Thursday Night Football is back with the final midweek showcase of the 2022 season. The Cowboys (11-4) hit the road for a cross-conference matchup against the Titans (7-8) who will be without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill and franchise running back Derrick Henry while also resting most of their starters on defense as they look towards the AFC South winner-takes-all match against the Jaguars in Week 18. Betting lines favor the visiting Cowboys by a whopping 13.5 points as the widest margin of the Week 17 slate with the projected Over/Under scoring total set at 40.5.
The Cowboys have four of their last fives, coming fresh off the heels of a nail-biting 40-34 victory over the Gardner Minshew-led Eagles in Week 16. The Cowboys’ offense is amongst the most effective and versatile units in the NFL. They average 376.5 yards of total offense (8th) with 229.9 passing yards (16th) and 143.1 rushing yards (7th)while putting up 28.9 points per game (3rd) on average. They house one of the best defenses in the NFL, although their numbers have begun to regress as of late. The Cowboys’ defense allows 354.4 total yards (18th) and 20.2 points per game (6th) with a top-10 passing defense (202.5 Y/G – 9th).
The Titans are home team underdogs, giving up 13.5 points to the traveling Cowboys as the team has now lost five consecutive games. The organization elected to bench third-round rookie quarterback Malik Willis, placing Joshua Dobbs in the starting position for an injured Tannehill. The franchise is aware that this upcoming contest means very little and if they wish to keep their playoff hopes alive they will have to defeat the streaking Jaguars in Week 18. The Titans’ offense is a well-oiled rushing machine but struggles heavily at creating passing production. They are averaging a mere 313.5 scrimmage yards (30th) with 168.6 passing yards (30th) but a thumping 125.8 rushing yards (12th) per game. The Titans sit amongst the lowest-level scoring offense in the NFL, putting up 17.9 offensive points per game (27th). Conversely, the team’s defense has mirrored the offense with a top-tier run defense with a league-worst passing defense. The Titans concede 376.1 scrimmage yards (26th) with a stifling average of 80.1 rushing yards (2nd) to go alongside 279.6 passing yards (31st) and 20.8 points per game (20.8).
The Cowboys are looking to extend their win streak, keeping them firmly in the hunt for home-field advantage in the playoffs. The Titans will be desperate to keep their playoff dreams on the table but are running out of firing power down the stretch.
KEYS TO VICTORY
Dallas Cowboys
- Pressure the Titans’ Quarterback
- Force Turnovers
- Mitigate Offensive Mistakes
Tennessee Titans
- Contain the Run/Clock Control
- Defense/Special Teams Step it Up
- No Turnovers
INJURY REPORT
GAME PREDICTION
Moneyline: Cowboys
Scoring Prediction: Cowboys 26 – Titans 9
Over/Under: Under 40.5
Now that we have introduced the matchup let’s dive into some high-upside player props for this Thursday Night Football Showdown.
DAK PRESCOTT OVER 232.5 PASSING YARDS
Betting Odds: (-115)
Dak Prescott is averaging 245.5 passing yards per game on 31.6 attempts with a completion percentage of 69.0%. He has recorded below 232.5 passing yards in just one game over his last eight contests. The Titans’ defense allows an expected increase of 32.1% of passing production to opposing quarterbacks, ranked 2nd in Production Over Average (POA) to the position. A neutral game script where the Cowboys post an insurmountable lead early, leading to minimal passing output is the biggest concern for Prescott’s current passing prop.
MICHAEL GALLUP OVER 33.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Betting Odds: -115
The Titans’ defense is the top-ranked team in POA to opposing wideouts, allowing an absurd uptick of 23.1% of receiving production over expectation to their matchup. Michael Gallup has had a quietly disappointing season after returning from a serious knee injury. He is averaging just 31.3 receiving yards per game but has surpassed his current 33.5-yard betting prop in six of his last eight contests. The Titans are already amongst the worst in the NFL at stemming passing production from opposing offenses. The loss of several key starters, coupled with their inevitable bracketing of star wideout CeeDee Lamb should lend positive production to Gallup.
TREYLON BURKS OVER 2.5 RECEPTIONS
Betting Odds: +105
A laundry list of unfortunate injuries to the Titans rookie has mitigated his production and development this season. Burks is averaging a mere 2.8 receptions and 4.3 targets per game in his inaugural season and has not had more than four receptions since Week 12 against the Bengals. A positive game script against an exploitable defensive matchup should lead to Burks exceeding, or at the very least, playing in line with his lowly averages, offering bettors a plus-money bet with minimal risk. The Cowboys’ defense concedes 16.7% of receiving production over the expected average to their matchup. Furthermore, the switch to Joshua Dobbs under center could open up a high-volume of short-yardage looks for the Titans’ first-round receiver as the team plays catch-up against a top-ranked Cowboys offense.
*BONUS ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN PROP*
Dallas Cowboys D/ST (+425)
Chigoziem Okonkwo (+750)
Please remember to always bet responsibly. Know your limit and play within it.
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