Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season was oddly predictable in its chaos. Expectations of the old were quickly shattered by a forceful opening day rife with statistical parody. The information and biases collected from last season are, in many cases, no longer relevant. Nevertheless, the first week of the 2022 season has provided us with several interesting data points on which we can capitalize. 

We can put Week 1 in the rearview and focus on the future. Week 2 begins with a scintillating Thursday Night Football contest between the hometown Kansas City Chiefs and visiting Los Angeles Chargers. Vegas lines have the over/under set at 54.0 points, making this the highest projected scoring game of the Week 2 slate. Expect an all-out scoring assault between two of the NFL’s top offenses as Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert go to war through the air. Let’s dive into some high-upside player props for this matchup between AFC West foes.

JUSTIN HERBERT OVER 283.5 PASSING YARDS 

Betting Odds: -115

The Chargers’ offense looked offbeat in their close win against the Raiders in Week 1. A “down” performance for Justin Herbert in a negative game script equated to 279 passing yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. The Chiefs are riding high after walloping the Cardinals in a 44-21 blowout but will face a much different test with Herbert stretching the field. Herbert will be forced to throw early and often to match the up-tempo pace of a Patrick Mahomes-led offense.

PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 10.5 RUSHING YARDS

Betting Odds: -110

Adding Khalil Mack to the Chargers’ front seven has elevated this unit into a monstrous force that can pressure the quarterback at ease. One of Mahomes’ many elite talents is being able to avoid that pressure and scramble for chunk gains, picking up first downs consistently when his team needs to move the chains. The Chiefs gunslinger will not have as much time to sit in the pocket as he did in Week 1 against the Cardinals, making him one third-down scramble away from cashing in on this underlooked prop bet.

TRAVIS KELCE OVER 77.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Betting Odds: -115

The Chiefs’ offense looks wildly different from last season, with a revamped wide receiver corps sans Tyreek Hill. One constant remains the same; this offense moves through Travis Kelce. Kelce torched the Cardinals for 121 yards on eight receptions in Week 1. The Chargers are infamous for linebackers struggling in coverage against the league’s top tight ends, evident by Darren Waller‘s effortless four receptions for 79 yards on opening day. Both offenses are expected to put on a show in the passing department, with Kelce being the principal benefactor of Mahomes’ targets.

JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER 68.5 RECEIVING YARDS/5.5 RECEPTIONS (PARLAY)

Betting Odds: +200

JuJu Smith-Schuster ran through the Cardinals’ defense like a freshly sharpened buzzsaw cutting through balsa wood in the first half of the Chiefs Week 1 matchup. Smith-Schuster was eventually sidelined, along with several other starters, once the game had gotten out of hand. The former Steelers wideout was unable to secure one of Mahomes’ five touchdown passes on the day but led the team’s wide receivers in all underlying metrics. Smith-Schuster is clearly the number one outside threat as Kelce’s compliment and will surely benefit from positive touchdown variance with a red hot Mahomes at the helm.

AUSTIN EKELER OVER 38.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Betting Odds: -110

Keenan Allen is expected to miss several weeks with a hamstring injury, leaving Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler as the focal point of Herbert’s passing attack. If the Chiefs take the lead early, Ekeler will be peppered with targets as Williams and company work the sidelines as downfield threats. The Chargers’ do-it-all running back has shouldered a sizable target share in the past as one of the NFL’s best receiving threats out of the backfield. Ekeler will likely lead the team in receiving in what should be a positive game script for the Chargers’ offensive weapons.

AUSTIN EKELER UNDER 54.5 RUSHING YARDS

Betting Odds: -110

As bullish as I am on Ekeler’s receiving lines, his rushing totals are questionable. Ekeler touted 14 rush attempts for 36 yards (2.6 YPC) in Week 1 against the Raiders. The Chiefs’ defense may lack the defensive prowess in the secondary to stop the Chargers’ passing attack, but they more than make up for it with an imposing front seven capable of snuffing out the run game of opposing offenses. In their opening day matchup, the Chiefs held the Cardinals offense held James Conner to 26 yards on ten carries in a similar matchup. With both teams expected to air it out, anticipate a lower volume of rushing opportunities for Ekeler. 

*BONUS TOUCHDOWN PROPS*

ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER

JuJu Smith Schuster (+130)

Josh Palmer (+255)

SIGNOFF

Please remember to always bet responsibly. Know your limit and play within it.

Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

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