The NFL Combine is underway at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. While the 40-yard dash is the glamour event year in and year out, it is not nearly as important as some other events at the NFL Combine when projecting NFL success. This article will take you through what matters most for what positional groups.
Wide Receivers
Everyone loves the 40-yard dash. I was watching a show with Field Yates and Mel Kiper, and they quoted multiple times how player x would increase his draft position if he had a good 40-time. Why are we still doing this in 2025? Let’s take a closer look.
Since 2013, the ten wide receivers with the fastest 40 times are listed below:
Jacoby Ford, Clemson: 4.28 seconds
JJ Nelson, UAB: 4.28 seconds
Tyquan Thornton, Baylor: 4.28 seconds
Henry Ruggs, Alabama: 4.27 seconds
Tyrone Calico, Middle Tennessee: 4.27 seconds
Marquise Goodwin, Texas: 4.27 seconds
Jerome Mathis, Hampton: 4.26 seconds
Dri Archer, Kent State: 4.26 seconds
John Ross, Washington: 4.22 seconds
Xavier Worthy, Texas: 4.21 seconds
In contrast, the top 10 wide receivers all-time in the 20-yard shuttle were:
Allen Robinson, Penn State: 4.00 seconds
Ja’Marr Chase, LSU: 3.99 seconds
Amari Cooper, Alabama: 3.98 seconds
Jeff Janis, Saginaw Valley State: 3.98 seconds
T.J. Moe, Missouri: 3.95 seconds
Bruce Ellington, South Carolina: 3.95 seconds
Isaiah Burse, Fresno State: 3.94 seconds
Odell Beckham, LSU: 3.94 seconds
Damian Copeland, Louisville: 3.90 seconds
Brandin Cooks, Oregon State: 3.81 seconds
The top-ten wide receivers listed above for the forty-yard dash have combined for zero top 24 fantasy points per game seasons. Meanwhile, the top-ten wide receivers for the twenty-yard shuttle have combined for a whopping 24 top 24 fantasy point per game seasons. There is also a 50% hit rate off this one metric. That is exceptional for a non-production-based metric. Allen Robinson (3), Ja’ Marr Chase (4), Amari Cooper (6), Odell Beckham (4), and Brandin Cooks (7) make up these 24 top 24 finishes.
To add a cherry on top, the eleventh-ranked 20-yard shuttle time is Chris Godwin, who has contributed another (4) top-24 fantasy point per game finishes.
The 20-yard shuttle is orders of magnitude less sexy than the 40-yard dash. However, as you can see, the 20-yard shuttle has been far more correlated to future NFL success than the 40-yard dash. The shuttle is a test of a player’s agility and change of direction ability. Meanwhile, the 40-yard dash is a straight-line sprint. It is logical, therefore, that the 20-yard shuttle is a better measure of a wide receiver’s route-running acumen.
Running Back
Ideally, you want to combine this speed with size for running backs. Per Nic Ercolano, there are five running backs in NFL Combine all-time results to:
- Run a 4.4 or below
- Weigh 215 plus
- Have a burst score of 120 plus
The 10-yard split is also very important—the 40-yard dash matters for running backs more on longer runs. The bulk of running back rushes are under 10 yards. For example, Bucky Irving ran a disappointing forty-yard dash time of 4.55 seconds. His 4.55 time ranked just 14th of 21 players. However, his 10-yard split time was far better, ranking 8th among 21 players at 1.54 seconds.
Of course, Bucky also ranked very well in other advanced rushing metrics, such as missed forced tackles per attempt and yards after contact, but these are production metrics, not NFL Combine-related.
D.K. Metcalf holds the all-time 10-yard split record at 1.45 seconds.
40-yard dash
Isiah Pacheco, Rutgers: 4.37 seconds
Knile Davis, Arkansas: 4.37 seconds
Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama: 4.35 seconds
Elijah Mitchell, Louisiana-Lafayette: 4.35 seconds
Onterio McCalebb, Auburn: 4.34 seconds
Isaac Guerendo, Rutgers: 4.33 seconds
De’Von Achane, Texas A&M: 4.32 seconds
Keith Marshall, Georgia: 4.31 seconds
Joe Hill, Utah State: 4.30 seconds
Corey Grant, Auburn: 4.28 seconds
10-yard splits
Keaton Mitchell, East Carolina: 1.48
Devon Achane, Texas A&M: 1.51
Bijan Robinson, Texas: 1.52
Roschon Johnson, Texas: 1.52
Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama: 1.52
The size-speed combination is also very important for the tight-end position. The four players below are the only ones since 2013 to:
- Weigh over 240 pounds
- Measure over 6 ft 3 inches tall
- Run under a 4.5 forty-yard dash.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. All of my articles have one goal in common. That goal is to provide you, our member, with actionable advice that can improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy or Blue Sky @forcefantasy.bsky.social. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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