With 2023 coming to a close, I’m going to be discussing my fantasy football New Year’s Resolutions. These are comprised of things I’ve learned from player evaluations, fantasy matchups, and reactions to past and present performance in the league.
I won’t evaluate Jayden Daniels (QB-LSU) the same way I did Anthony Richardson.
When I scouted Anthony Richardson on tape last year coming out of Florida I saw an athletic guy with a cannon for an arm that couldn’t set his feet when he threw and as such had scattershot accuracy. I told myself Richardson wouldn’t have success in the league as he attempted to rely on his sheer athleticism to take over games to make up for his accuracy concerns.
I was wrong. Despite a season-ending injury, Anthony Richardson was on fire before that, and showed me with his plus athleticism and cannon for an arm that he could succeed in the league and be a top fantasy QB. His accuracy issues will only improve as he refines his game. When healthy, AR15 is a beast on the field. I won’t make the same mistake in evaluating Jayden Daniels.
While scouting Jayden Daniels I see a lot of similarities on tape to what I saw from Richardson. Plus athleticism, the ability to take over games with his legs, a good arm, good processing of the field, and the ability to go through his progressions coupled with questionable accuracy at times. The only plus I see in Daniels’ game that I didn’t see in Richardson’s college tape is the ability to read the field and go through progressions well. Besides that, they’re very similar prospects to me. Meaning I think Jayden Daniels is going to take the NFL by storm.
I expect Daniels to be a top-10 pick in the NFL Draft, especially with so many QB-needy teams drafting early. I project him as my 1.04 in SF Rookie Drafts, only behind Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Marvin Harrison Jr.
This Heisman Trophy winner is the real deal, and as long as he gets solid draft capital, I expect him to excel in any given situation in the league. I’ve learned my lesson from my evaluations of Anthony Richardson in a big way, and I think Jayden Daniels is ready to set the league on fire.
I won’t sell shares of Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN).
I’ve been playing fantasy and more, specifically Dynasty Fantasy Football for over two decades, and if there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s to have patience with top rookies that show some promise.
I expected JSN to set the league on fire immediately, but given his situation in Seattle, it’s not a surprise that it’s been slow going in year one.
JSN has 59 catches for 602 yards and three TDs so far in 2023; hardly league-breaking numbers. What I’ve learned from past rookies is to have some patience. The situation in Seattle is going to get better. At some point old man Mr Consistency Tyler Lockett will be done in Seattle. The Hawks will move on from Geno Smith and bring in a better QB who can utilize JSN’s skill set better. Prior to him being drafted, I saw JSN as a top-10 Dynasty WR right away, and unlike in years past, I’m not backing down from that.
JSN is a strong buy/hold candidate for me in Dynasty Leagues.
I won’t fall in love with any rookies from the 2024 class so much that I’m willing to blow up my entire current fantasy squad for them.
As I do my evaluations, I often uncover guys that I love and want to sell the house to acquire. This year, I’m going to be more patient and not feel I must acquire the shiny new toy in all my leagues.
I love incoming rookies and spend hours evaluating them, but from a cost-benefit analysis, the time to invest in top-tiered rookies is usually not to trade up to draft them in your rookie drafts. Unless it’s a guy being evaluated lower than what you think the consensus is.
As an example, at this point, you’d have to pay out your butt to acquire Marvin Harrison Jr. in any 2024 rookie draft. That price is only going to go up as we near rookie draft season. However, if you’re a fan of a player like Blake Corum or Malachi Corley (as I am), then the time to acquire them could be in the 2024 rookie draft as they won’t cost a premium pick.
Lastly, despite all my hours of evaluating incoming rookies and Devy players before the NFL Draft and National Signing Day, I will remember that situations matter.
Talent can rise to the top, but situation plays a role. You won’t be able to convince me that JSN wouldn’t be seeing Puka Nacua’s success if he was in his situation, or vice versa, that Puka wouldn’t be having this kind of instant success were he drafted by Seattle. Thus, this year I’m changing up my process to put more emphasis on landing spots in evaluation of the 2024 rookie class.
The same goes for Devy Evaluations, situation matters.
I love Carnell Tate, Brandon Inniss, and Jeremiah Smith because they committed to WRU which is Ohio State University. I love Nicholas Singleton and CJ Baxter because Penn State and Texas have a habit of producing top running backs. Like with the 2024 rookies, I will put more stake into a situation when evaluating my devy players.
Thanks for reading! Any questions/positive feedback/negative feedback/whatever, I can be found on Twitter/X @DynastyPatrolHQ. #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding #AlwaysBeScouting #DynastyFootball #NFL #NFLTrades #NFLDraft #NFLInjuries #PlantYourFlag
