We at DFF hope all your 2022 dynasty football league dreams came true. But the grind never stops. We have a saying at DFF #AlwaysBeBuilding. So if your season is over it’s time to start looking at your approach to the 2023 Rookie Draft. Where is the strength of this class and what spots do you need to be at to get your guy? In this article, I will provide my initial view of how I see the draft playing out and what spots the value is at. I will do deeper dives into some of these players as the off-season wears on. This is version 1.0.
This rookie draft lacks depth at wide receiver as compared to the prior two classes. However, the running backs will carry that torch this year with quality prospects straight through the end of round two and early round three. This may be the best running back class since the heralded 2017 class which included Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, and Austin Ekeler. Four quarterbacks will go in the first round of Superflex drafts and one tight end.
For this exercise, we will use a Superflex, PPR, TE Premium format. Round 1’s write-up can be found here.
2.01 Devon Achane, RB, Texas A & M
This class has some absolute burners at running back. You can’t teach speed and Achane has it in spades. Achane was a track All-American in the 100-meter dash for the Aggies with a scintillating time of 10.22 seconds. Chris Johnson is a comp being used for Achane. Johnson ran for over 2000 yards in 2009 and ran the 40 in 4.24 seconds. Achane’s 3.92 yards created and 39% dominator are both near the top of this class. Achane is slight at 185 pounds so this will certainly be a red flag for NFL teams. This will also limit his touches in the NFL but expect plenty of explosive runs. If he gets to the second level he is near impossible to catch.
2.02 Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina
After bursting onto the scene in his sophomore campaign, Josh Downs put together another stellar year in his junior season. In my WR1 model, Downs currently grades out as the WR4 in this class behind the big three of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, and Quentin Johnston. His best season receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA) of 3.49 grades out as the best in the incoming rookie class. He also checks the other important boxes you like to see analytically with a 2nd-year breakout (20% market share), 38.3% weighted dominator, and early declaration. We should see Downs selected in the second round of the NFL draft.
2.03 Zach Evans, RB, Ole Miss
Zach Evans will be a polarizing player for dynasty rookie drafts. Many will have Evans in round one. Here I have him as the 2.03. He has a five-star pedigree with a prototype NFL size of 6’0, 215 pounds. Evans clocked a 4.51 forty in high school so we could see him in the 4.4 range at the combine along with expected explosive performance in the shuttle and vertical. Evans has the tools. However, this hasn’t necessarily translated to elite production. His dominator was 21.5% which was the 41st percentile. He was forced into a timeshare with exceptional freshman Quinshon Judkins, with Judkins far surpassing his production. Evans receiving ceiling is also capped by his hands of stone. Evans posted a measly 4.2% target share.
2.04 Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
Jalin Hyatt was a late bloomer but when he blossomed it was an eruption of production. He ended up winning the Biletnikoff award as the nation’s top receiver. Hyatt is now getting some hype as a potential first-rounder in April’s NFL draft. His junior year breakout is a red flag but is counterbalanced with a strong 3.22 RYPTPA.
2.05 Tank Bigsby, RB, Auburn
Bigsby has been a popular 2023 draft prospect since his freshman year when he broke out with 834 yards rushing. His production has since plateaued but he did see encouraging progress in the receiving game. His yards created was 2.34 and dominator 26%. These marks are modest compared with some of the other backs in this class.
2.06 Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU
Like Bigsby, Boutte has been on 2023 draft radars since his stellar freshman campaign. He was a five-star recruit and the number three wide receiver prospect in the country. Boutte followed that up with another strong campaign last year but it was cut short by a season-ending ankle injury. His junior year was marred with mediocrity as he struggled to get out of Coach Brian Kelly’s dog house. Outside of the freshman year breakout, Boutte was weak analytically in key metrics like RYPTA and weighted dominator.
2.07 Chase Brown, RB, Illinois
Chase Brown is an entirely different type of prospect from Zach Evans. He was a three-star recruit with offers from bottom-feeding programs like South Dakota and Mcneese St. He ended up at Western Michigan his freshman year before transferring to Illinois. He also doesn’t have Evans’s prototype size and speed. But unlike Evans, Brown had uber production in his last two seasons. Brown was 4th in the NCAA in rushing yards for 2022.
2.08 Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Zay Flowers was a three-star recruit for the Eagles of Boston College. He was a steady performer in his four years in Chestnut Hill. Flowers is a chain mover type receiver with excellent footwork and agility. He displays solid YAC skills with creative open-field running. He posted the strongest weighted dominator of any wide receiver in this class with a 40.5% mark. His senior declaration is a red flag.
2.09 Rashee Rice, WR, SMU
Rashee Rice is a blazer with an expected 40 time under 4.4. He was a three-star recruit who played his college ball with the SMU Mustangs. Rice reached the 20% market share breakout threshold in his sophomore year. Rice showed steady production stead his first three campaigns and then exploded his senior season. Despite being a late declaration, Rice posted stellar analytics in other key metrics including RYPTPA 2.85, weighted dominator 33.7%, and a sophomore season breakout.
2.10 Kendre Miller, RB, TCU
Kendre Miller had an outstanding junior season for the Hornfrogs propelling him up NFL big boards around the league. Miller has excellent vision finding the open running lanes with regularity. His instincts allow him to audible on the fly should a gap close and another arise. He is unlikely to wow us at the combine with his athleticism but his production can not be denied. Miller’s 3.85 yards created is near the top of this class.
2.11 Israel Abanikanda, RB, Pitt
“Izzy” Abanikanda has been a fast riser and is a highly intriguing prospect. Abanikanda is the youngest player in the draft class at the tender age of 20. He has a prototype size and speed of 215 and a 40 time in the 4.4s. Abanikanda ran for 1431 yards this year and a mind-blowing 21 touchdowns.
2.12 Deuce Vaughn, RB, Kansas St.
Deuce Vaughn is 180 lbs. soaking wet. Other than that he has an elite profile. His 44% best-season dominator leads all prospects in this class. He is certainly not going to be a high-touch player but if he has the right offensive coordinator he can certainly make an impact, especially in the receiving game. The NFL has been more willing to give thin guys a chance than it has in the past. Vaughn is electric with jaw-dropping agility and he is a nightmare in space.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
Click here for a 12-month DFF Membership.
