Welcome back, Dynasty family! On the docket today, we’re covering Russell Wilson, one of the most polarizing players in fantasy football. The Broncos made headlines this offseason, finalizing a deal with the Saints that sent Sean Payton to Denver. Payton has one of the most illustrious coaching resumes in the NFL today, and Broncos Country is hopeful this blockbuster move will put their team back on the map. Unfortunately, 2022 was a tough season for the Broncos. Fans put most of the blame on Wilson’s shoulders, and rightfully so. He was one of the biggest disappointments last season, both from a fantasy football perspective and an NFL perspective. So what should the expectations be in 2023 and beyond for Russ, giving the coaching upgrade? I’m going to help answer that question for you below.
Sean Payton
First, I want to discuss how good Sean Payton has been as a head coach. Payton’s Saints finished within the top-9 in yards per game (YPG) in 13 of 15 seasons and led the league in YPG six times. During Payton’s tenure from 2006-21, the Saints led the NFL with 392.4 YPG. (Quick disclaimer: the NFL suspended Sean Payton for the 2012 season due to the “bounty” scandal.) In addition, the Saints were a top-5 team in scoring nine times and led the NFL with a 27.6 PPG average during his tenure. Long story short, Sean Payton created a well-oiled machine in New Orleans and cemented himself as one of the most well-respected coaching minds in the NFL.Â
Drew Brees
Drew Brees was the man under center for Sean Payton every year except for 2021. One could debate whether or not Drew’s incredible career was purely a product of Payton’s offensive scheme, but one thing we cannot dispute: Brees will take his place in Canton, Ohio, soon. He will likely be a first-ballot Hall-of-Fame inductee when he becomes eligible in 2026.Â
I’m specifically looking at numbers from 2006-2017 for Brees before injuries took over and shortened his seasons. During those 12 years, Brees averaged 624 pass attempts per season and 4,841 pass yards. He exceeded 5,000 passing yards in a season five different times. For comparison, those averages would have put the Saints at 7th in pass attempts and 2nd in pass yards for the 2022 season. The Saints’ offense liked to move quickly and air it out. Overall, Drew Brees finished his 19-year career with a 68% completion percentage, a 2.35 touchdown to interception (TD: INT) ratio, and a passer rating of 98.7. I bring these numbers up to compare them to Wilson’s career numbers.
Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson has yet to be a volume passer in his career. He’s never exceeded 600 pass attempts or 4,300 pass yards in a season before. So assuming Sean Payton brings the same offensive mindset to Denver this coming year, Wilson’s fantasy production should increase from 2022 based on volume alone. For his career, Russell’s been sitting with a 64% completion percentage, a touchdown to interception ratio of 3.14, and a career passer rating of 100.3 (good for fifth in NFL history). These career numbers are comparable to Brees (Wilson’s TD: INT ratio is significantly better), which could suggest last year’s performance was an outlier and Nathaniel Hackett was the root of the issue. But we still need to temper our expectations, and here’s why.Â
The Russell Wilson we saw take the field for Denver this past season was not one we’ve become accustomed to watching. He wasn’t good in any aspect of the game. Russ took too much time waiting for plays to develop and struggled to work through progressions in the pocket. He missed wide-open receivers because he would get fixated on one target and didn’t see the whole field. I’m sure we all remember the KJ Hamler outburst in Week 5 vs. the Colts, where Wilson failed to notice Hamler running uncontested on a slant route into the endzone. In a nutshell, a lot of that was going on all season. Russ was inaccurate, made poor decisions with the ball, and has lost a lot of mobility since his days in Seattle.Â
Wilson was sacked a career-high 55 times last season but was only 15th in pressure rate. He led the league in 20+ yard pass attempts with 80 but did very little with those opportunities, compiling a mediocre six touchdowns and five interceptions on those deep shots. He finished as the Fantasy QB16 on the season. These were wildly disappointing numbers, as many fantasy owners were drafting Wilson as a top-10 QB in Dynasty startups last year.
Conclusion
The 2023 Broncos offense should be much better in 2023. Denver was 21st overall in Total YPG and dead last in PPG. The Saints were better in both categories last year (19th in YPG and 22nd in PPG), and Payton was dealing with Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston at quarterback. Russ may have regressed, but he is still miles ahead of these guys.
Payton has already upgraded this offensive line for Wilson, signing Ben Powers (OG) from Baltimore and Mike McGlinchey (OT) from San Francisco. Both should make an immediate impact and turn this into one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. McGlinchey allowed the 9th fewest quarterback pressures in 2022, and Powers was 2nd in pass block efficiency among guards with 1,000 or more snaps.Â
Wilson is in the perfect situation to succeed with all these pieces in place. Expect him to make significant strides and finish as a high-end QB2 in 2023. However, we shouldn’t see any more top-10 finishes for Russ at the position simply because the rushing upside is not what it used to be. He must clean up the mental mistakes and work on finding and hitting open targets in the pocket. If he can improve in these areas, he’ll have the volume to post respectable numbers. And let’s remember the Broncos gave up a king’s ransom to get Wilson. If nothing else, you should feel good about his job security. I’m comfortable drafting Russ in Dynasty Superflex startups at the 5-6 turn. He’ll be a serviceable QB2 for your team and an incredible QB3 option.Â
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @DynastySavant. Until next time, keep grinding out there, Dynasty family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
