Late-Round RBs Worth Buying

In startup drafts, I believe it’s best to focus on RBs with contingent value in the later rounds, as it’s much more likely that these backups will hit your starting lineup than someone like Alec Pierce or Cedric Tillman. It only takes one injury for handcuff RBs to catapult into bell cow roles and potentially league-winning roles for your fantasy team. The 70th-best WR or 25th-best TE is much less likely to give you viable productivity during the season; too much would have to go right for them. As an example, Cedric Tillman (the current WR69, according to Bulletproofff.com) would need multiple injuries to the Browns’ receiving corps to see consistent targets in 2023. Even then, it would be unreasonable to expect Tillman to replicate the production of Amari Cooper. 

Handcuff RBs, on the other hand, are much more likely to pick up exactly where their RB1 left off in the event of an injury. Running backs are essential to fantasy football success, but they’re arguably the most replaceable position in real life. Time and time again, we’ve seen backups come in and impress. In general, offensive efficiency and run protection make or break an RB (to an extent; the super-elite RBs in the league would produce regardless of situation). With this in mind, if we’re focused on scooping up RBs in the late rounds of startups, or we’re looking to add RB depth in an existing Dynasty league, who should we be targeting? I’m giving you four names in this article that I believe are undervalued and could pay dividends for you in 2023 and beyond. I’ll also provide you with their Bulletproof ADP from the past month of startups in your standard Dynasty Superflex league.

David Montgomery (10.03, RB31)

Montgomery was signed by the Detroit Lions this offseason but will be taking a backseat to the 12th overall pick in Jahmyr Gibbs, and we can see this baked into his price of RB31 overall in Dynasty. Montgomery was fairly uninspiring last season, as were the Bears. None of his peripherals in 2022 stand out as elite by any means, but much of this can be attributed to the lackluster offense and subpar protection. Montgomery was 50th amongst eligible RBs in run block rating, a metric used to measure the efficiency of one’s offensive line. So, we shouldn’t have expected much from the man while in Chicago. 

Detroit should be a better experience for Montgomery. Detroit was 5th in the NFL in PPG last season and has added more young talent to surround Jared Goff, grabbing Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. I doubt Montgomery will see 200+ carries in 2023, but he should see a ton of short-yardage and red zone opportunities, similar to Jamaal Williams in 2022. Williams finished as the RB13 and had an incredible 17 TDs at 27 years old last season. Montgomery is younger and better at football than Williams. While I realize 17 TDs is an unreasonable bar to reach, I wouldn’t be surprised if Montgomery ends up with double-digit rushing TDs himself. He signed a three-year contract, and Detroit could only save money by cutting Montgomery after the 2024 season, so I expect to see him in that “grinder” role for the next two years. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t outperform his RB31 ADP in both seasons, provided he stays healthy. 

Tyler Allgeier (13.07, RB44)

If you’ve read my prior articles, you’ve probably encountered several of my rants advocating for Allgeier in fantasy. Allgeier was thrust into the starting role in Atlanta as a rookie and didn’t disappoint. He finished as the RB15 or better in yards, red zone touches, juke rate, evaded tackles, and breakaway runs. Despite his early success, Atlanta selected Bijan Robinson with their eighth overall pick, pushing Allgeier down the depth chart as we often see with Day 3 RBs in the NFL. 

However, we know Arthur Smith’s Falcons are a run-heavy organization, which will likely continue in 2023. The Falcons led the NFL in rush attempts, finishing with 559 on the season. Suppose Bijan has 300 rush attempts; that leaves 259 for Allgeier, Ridder, and company. Allgeier has some standalone value based on the projected rushing volume and his efficiency as a rookie, and his contingent value is through the roof. This offense should be better, and if Bijan goes down to injury, Allgeier is a must-start and an RB1 candidate in fantasy every week. At the price of a 13th-round startup and RB44 overall, I don’t know how you could pass him up.

Elijah Mitchell (14.02, RB46)

Go ahead and copy-paste everything I just said about Allgeier here. But seriously, I view these guys as virtually the same player. Both players are efficient rushers still in their rookie contracts that are handcuffed to elite RBs. The 49ers also love to run the ball, finishing with 504 attempts in 2022, which was good for 9th in the NFL. Like Allgeier, Mitchell had a solid rookie campaign, averaging 15 FPPG, putting him as the RB14 overall in 2021. Elijah struggled with injuries in Year 2 and saw his starting role vanish mid-season when Christian McCaffrey was brought on board, leaving many Mitchell owners wondering if he was just a one-hit-wonder. He certainly may be, but we’ve seen McCaffrey sidelined for extended periods, only playing in 10 total games from 2020-21. Mitchell is another back that has incredible contingent value. If CMC were to miss time, Mitchell would be the clear RB1 in San Francisco. While he wouldn’t have the RB1 overall ceiling that CMC has weekly due to Mitchell’s lack of receiving upside, he would certainly be a guy you could start without thinking twice. 

While I don’t believe Mitchell has quite the standalone value Allgeier has currently, he’s still going to score fantasy points with CMC healthy. Expect Mitchell to see about 35% of the snaps in the backfield this season. Even with CMC on the field, he could be a potential flex play if you’re dealing with bye weeks or injuries in-season. 

Keaontay Ingram (19.11, RB68)

Here’s a name that’s virtually free to acquire this offseason. Hell, he may even be on the waiver wire in some shallow Dynasty formats. Ingram was a Round 6 selection in the 2022 NFL Draft and is currently projected to be the primary backup to James Conner in 2023. Ingram only earned 27 rush attempts as a rookie, but he was a pretty underrated prospect coming out of college. He was always an efficient rusher for Texas and USC and flashed some ability as a pass catcher, collecting an impressive 89 receptions and six receiving TDs in his collegiate career. At 6’0″, 220 lbs., Ingram has the size and strength to handle a three-down workload in the NFL if called upon. 

James Conner is the unquestioned starter for the Cardinals, but he’s also 28 years old and has never made it through an entire NFL season injury-free. Since 2017, he’s averaged playing in just 13 games per year. Last year, it was Eno Benjamin who saw the heavy workload during Conner’s absence, which isn’t a great mark on Ingram’s resume. However, Benjamin has since left for New Orleans, leaving Ingram as the only guy legitimately competing for touches in Arizona. (Surprisingly, Arizona elected not to draft an RB in this year’s NFL Draft.)

Ingram’s value is purely contingent, and even if he gets onto the field, the Cardinals should be terrible this season, so don’t expect any 20 FP performances. But hey, he’s young, can catch passes, and only needs one injury (which is seemingly inevitable for James Conner) to see an RB1 workload. At the price of a 19th/20th round startup pick, he’s one of the few values in this range that could ever realistically hit your fantasy lineup. You could probably acquire Ingram for a late third or early fourth-round rookie pick, and I encourage you to do so. He’s less of a dart throw than anyone else you’ll get here. 

Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @DynastySavant. Until next time, keep grinding out there, Dynasty family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding