After the NFL draft, there are quite a few backfields without a clear picture of who the workload is going to fall on. While it’s possible some backfields may continue as committees, more than likely, a few of them will have one guy receive a large volume of the work. That’s what I’m aiming to dive into in this series: who will emerge from the muddy backfields and cement their place as a fantasy value this season?
Luckily, JJ Zachariason has already put in the research to show us what to look for. Even though his research is primarily for redraft, we can apply it to dynasty as well. Breakout running backs typically aren’t handcuffs. They come from ambiguous backfields and are oftentimes drafted as the second back from their team. Pass catchers have an easier route to breakout, as there is typically a three rush to one reception workload ratio. Most importantly, age doesn’t matter. Players in their fifth year are just as likely as rookies to break out in these situations.
Current Depth Chart
James Robinson managers were shocked (maybe) in the Draft when the Jaguars selected Travis Etienne in the first round with the 25th overall pick. This wasn’t out of the question going in, as the Jags had a lot of draft capital to throw around, but it was a bit surprising to me. James Robinson was more than serviceable in 2020, he was good. They also added veteran depth to the backfield during free agency in the form of Carlos Hyde.
- James Robinson
- Travis Etienne
- Carlos Hyde
Having Robinson as the RB1 may seem like a bit of a hot take, but until Etienne completely takes over, I think there’s still value to be had there.
Lead Back or Committee?
Only twice in Urban Meyer’s entire head coaching career has a QB finished with fewer than second-most carries on the team (2010 Florida and 2018 Ohio State). While that might mean great things for Trevor Lawrence, for the running backs, it’s less than ideal. It’ll primarily be a one-man backfield.
Robinson saw 70% of snaps last season and took an unheard of 96% of the running back carries. He saw true workhorse levels of volume last season. Even with the Jaguars’ offensive line grading out at 22nd by PFF and missing two games, Robinson was able to finish as RB7 on the season. That won’t matter for him in 2021. I think it’s just a matter of time before he is ultimately phased out for Etienne.
Etienne comes into the backfield already having a report with Lawrence. During rookie camp, he worked with the wide receivers which some questioned. This could possibly be because while Lawrence’s recovery from offseason shoulder surgery hampered his ability to hand the ball off, he could still throw. It’s likely nothing more than wanting to maximize Etienne’s reps. Etienne saw his receiving go up in the last couple of years at Clemson, and, though he has been knocked for his lack of ability to pass protect, he could fill the role of the third-down back early on.
Who Do I Roster?
At this point, James Robinson is like a much younger, less capital-invested version of Melvin Gordon. He’s the incumbent back, so he should start the season getting the bulk of the work, but it’ll only be a matter of time before he gets replaced by the rookie. As far as future value goes, while it’s likely another team gives Robinson a chance when his contract is up, it’s hard to tell what that backfield could look like. I’m not dying to trade for Robinson, and if I’m selling, I think it’s wise to wait until the season.
If the Jaguars decide to cut or trade James Robinson, that would be his best-case scenario, but I don’t think that’s likely given his contract. As a UDFA, he’s only set to make $1,650,000 over the next two seasons with dead cap hits under $4,000. He’ll basically be a high-value handcuff as long as he stays in Jacksonville.
Travis Etienne is my RB2 in rookie drafts. I’m willing to take him as high as 1.04 in SF leagues, but I’d consider him a value anywhere after 1.06. He may not make a splash this season, but he should see workhorse volume once he captures the job. Until then, I expect him to get receiving work out of the backfield.
Thanks for reading! If you have any fantasy questions, reach out to me on Twitter @fantasyonefive, and be sure to check out the rest of my work on DFF!
