The Denver Broncos selected KJ Hamler, Wide Receiver, out of Penn State University. He was the 14th pick in the second round and was the tenth wide receiver drafted in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Biography
KJ Hamler is 5’11” and 178 pounds. He played two years at Penn State and will be 21 years old at the beginning of the 2020 NFL Season. Hamler was a four-star recruit out of high school despite missing his senior year with an injury. He redshirted his freshman season because of an ACL tear in preseason work.
College Production
KJ Hamler broke out at the age of 19 (age during their first season with a 20% receiving dominator rating) after missing back-to-back seasons with injuries. Hamler’s best season was his redshirt-sophomore season at 20 years old. Hamler had 56 receptions, for 904 receiving yards, and eight scrimmage touchdowns for a receiving dominator rating (average percentage of their team’s receiving yards and receiving touchdowns) of 31.7% (49th percentile). Hamler had legitimate age-adjusted production. He averaged 872.5 scrimmage yards (78th percentile) and 7.0 scrimmage touchdowns (74th percentile) per season for an average scrimmage dominator rating (average percentage of their team’s scrimmage yards and scrimmage touchdowns) per season of 14.2 (66th percentile). Hamler was extremely efficient with touches and within the Nittany Lions offense as a whole. He averaged 17.0 yards per reception (84th percentile) and 0.98 scrimmage yards per team play (79th percentile). Hamler was used extensively on special teams in Happy Valley. He had 81 returns, for 1,258 return yards, and zero return touchdowns.
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Athleticism
[profiler]KJ Hamler[/profiler]
KJ Hamler chose not to run at the NFL Combine and the Penn State pro day was canceled due to concerns with COVID-19. Hamler did wear GPS equipment in practice and during games while in college. His top two speeds were 21.76 mph and 21.58 mph. According to Next Gen Stats, Hamler’s top times rank tied for eight and 13th. Hamler is a smaller wide receiver that will most likely rely on his speed to win in the NFL.
NFL Landing Spot
Denver Broncos: The Broncos are one of the better landing spots for any rookie wide receiver. Emmanuel Sanders was traded in 2018 to the 49ers. Sure, they were the 28th ranked offense in 2019 and had one of the lower passing rates of all teams. The post-Peyton era has been bleak, but there is reason to hope. Drew Lock had the highest passer rating of his fellow rookie QBs. Courtland Sutton finished as the WR19, and rookie TE Noah Fant commanded 66 targets. In addition to this young core, the Broncos just added Melvin Gordon. Sutton and Fant alone combined for 38% of the team’s targets, and will likely carve out a similar stake next year. The Broncos devoted the 13th most targets to the running back last season, and that will likely expand with Gordon’s skill set. But behind Sutton there is no presumptive WR2. DaeSean Hamilton was the center of a lot of hype heading into 2019, but with the exception of the last few weeks, largely failed to deliver. Perhaps he can develop some rapport with Lock and deliver on some of that promise, but his grip on the role is loose at best. Tim Patrick showed some flashes and took on an expanded role in the eight games he played in, but profiles as a backup. Keep an eye out for someone the Broncos bring in. They might end up behind Fant in the pass catcher hierarchy, but if this offense continues to grow on last year’s foundation, there should be enough to go around.
**Editor’s Note** Denver Broncos selected Jerry Jeudy with the 15th pick of the first round.
Rivals’ Rapid Analysis
KJ Hamler had exemplary age-adjusted production in college. While he’s a small receiver, he’s a big-play wide receiver that can win vertically or by turning short passes into long gains. The Broncos invested surprising second round draft capital into Hamler. He has a messy degree of opportunity and will compete with Sutton, Jeudy and Fant for targets from Drew Lock.
KJ Hamler is in Dave’s third wide receiver tier, his WR10-WR12, and his 19th-21st rookie overall. Dave would target Hamler in the mid-late second round of superflex rookie drafts (early-mid second round in single QB). The Denver Broncos is not a great landing spot for KJ Hamler. He has to compete with Jeudy, Sutton, Fant, and Gordon for targets from Drew Lock in Vic Fangio’s run-heavy offense. Hamler will use his speed to stretch the field for the Broncos and projects as a weekly boom-bust wide receiver. Despite his excellent age-adjusted production and speed, Hamler is only a mid-late second round pick in dynasty superflex drafts.
KJ Hamler is in Shawn’s third wide receiver tier, Shawn’s WR12, and Shawn’s Overall Rookie Rank 19. Shawn would target Hamler in the mid-to-late second round in superflex rookie drafts (mid second round in single QB). Very surprising to see Denver aggressively go back to back with wide receivers. Hamler is a great talent, but this a complicated landing spot. Sutton and Jeudy are two alpha receivers, the team drafted Noah Fant in the first round last year to be a pass catcher, and just added Melvin Gordon. This team targeted the RB position with 13th highest frequency last season, and that is likely to expand with Gordon in town. The Broncos are doing a great job of surrounding Lock with weapons, which is better for reality than fantasy. Jeudy knocked Hamilton down, and Hamler just finished him, but Hamler is at best the fifth receiving option. Even as a stash candidate he is complicated, as all pass-catchers and running backs on this roster are in town for at least the next two seasons.
This article was written in collaboration with Shawn Kennedy. For more analysis check out Dave and Shawn’s previous articles at Dynasty Football Factory. Additionally, you can also find Dave’s dynasty superflex rankings at Dynasty Football Factory. Stay tuned for more rookie wide receiver rapid reaction articles from us throughout the entire NFL Draft. We will also give you instant reactions for priority UDFA wide receivers to help you try and find the next Adam Thielen. Interact with Dave and Shawn on Twitter @ff_spaceman and @ff_walrus. You can listen to our rivalry on our podcast @ATaleofTwoRivals with @ff_banterman.
Information found in this article was gathered from @ff_spaceman’s College Prospect Database, PlayerProfiler.com, Sports-Reference.com, AirYards.com, and a prospect’s college team website.
